2007 Saints Preseason Analysis Print E-mail
Written by Saintified   
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Predictions don’t mean squat! Analysts and sportscasters around the country are hyping the Saints as Super Bowl contenders. I can’t say that I ever remember that happening before but I also can’t say that it’s worth the paper it’s written on. Before you get indignant, think back to last year when the same analysts and sportscasters had the Saints ranked in the bottom five teams in the league. I say again – predictions don’t mean squat. What does mean squat are the factors that put a team in a position to contend: quality at every position, depth, chemistry, schedule, and confidence. So how do the Saints stack up?
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Quality: Offense - A-; Defense - B; Special Teams - C

Offensive line: The Saints have a quality starting five offensive line who protected the quarterback and opened holes for the running backs very effectively last year. With another year together, this unit has the potential to be even better. A

QB: Drew Brees is a top 10 QB in the league. What he brings to the Saints - even more than quality skills - is good decision making and HEART. Consider the Green Bay game – three quick turnovers and behind 14-0 early. Brees kept composure and the Saints led at halftime. A

RB: The McAllister/Bush combination is one of the top 3 running back combinations in the league – maybe number

1. Mike Karney is a bull of a fullback and is effective in all components of the game as evidenced by his three touchdowns against Dallas last year. A+

TE: Eric Johnson is an improvement over 2006. He has the skills to make the offense even more potent than last year. Durability is the question. Mark Campbell is effective but is just an average tight end in the league. B

WR: The receivers are the offensive question mark. Can Marques Colston duplicate his success or will he have a sophomore slump? Can Devery Henderson achieve increased consistency in route running and ball catching? Is David Patten the answer at the slot? Is Robert Meachem the real deal or a first round bust or something in between? B-

Defense line: Grant and Smith are a top tier defensive end tandem and provides the Saints with strong run and pass defense skills. Defensive tackle is questionable. Hollis Thomas was clearly a difference maker when on the field but a year and lots of hamburgers later, is Thomas the same player? Brian Young flourished with Thomas next to him and had a career year in sacks. Both are a year older and neither is young with 8 and 12 seasons each respectively. The additions of Kendrick Clancy and Lance Legree are intriguing but they will have to prove they are capable of replacing Willie Whitehead. B-

LB: The linebacker corps has Scott Fujita who I rate as a top tier linebacker in the league. Scott Shanle is solid but not top tier. Mark Simoneau is a notch below Shanle. The additions of Simmons, Evans, Jones and Mitchell create good competition but the linebacking corps, as a group, is middle of the road. C

For those that feel I’m too tough on the Saints front seven, look back on 2006 and consider these two facts.

1. The Saints run defense was 23rd in the league last year.

2. While that was an improvement over 2005, the improvement came from the offense controlling the ball and keeping the other team’s offense off the field – not from an upswing in defensive talent.

Secondary: Yes, I’ve seen the Fred Thomas clips over and over. I’ve seen Jason Craft video dropping interception after interception. BUT…the New Orleans’ secondary had the third ranked pass defense in the league. Some of the huge jump from 2005 to 2006 is attributable to the offense controlling the ball but I think the early play of Roman Harper and the subtraction of Dwight Smith both helped significantly.

Now in 2007, Harper’s return and the addition of Jason David and Kevin Kaesviharn allow the coaching staff to choose the starters from a higher overall talent level than last year. The same four starters may end up back on the field but they will have to work harder to keep their spots. B+

Special Teams: There are unknowns here. Can Olinda Mare bounce back from a sub-par season? Kicking in a dome should help and, potentially, the Saints can score from further down the field than last year with Carney. Chris Hansen is one of the best punters in the league and should be the man but who would have guessed that Steve Weatherford would have been the Saints punter last year. He performed well as a rookie under pressure. The Saints win either way at punter. Beerman is gone and with that loss come questions in the return game. Reggie Bush is electric when returning but will the Saints gamble against injury by placing Bush in that role? Aaron Stecker is listed as the kick-returner but I have to think his days may be numbered with Antonio Pittman pushing him for the third RB spot. C

Depth: B- The good news is that depth was added on the O line, linebacker, secondary, and running back. There are depth issues at six positions including QB, DE, DT, FB, WR, and TE. Significant injuries at QB, DE, or DT could affect the number of win and losses. The coaching staff proved last year that they can work around injuries at the other three slots but it makes their job much tougher. On the D line, cutting Willie Whitehead may be the team’s most significant loss of the offseason. He was versatile and able to play all positions on the line. He was a trooper and team player. Clancy may be the answer but the skill level drop from the starters to Rob Ninkovich, Josh Cooper, or Rodney Leisle is significant.

Chemistry: A From 2005 to 2006, “Who Dat Dem Saints” was more figuring out who was on the roster churn than a battle slogan for the games. Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis did a masterful job in releasing, trading and assembling players in the Belichik mode to create a team vice a group of individuals with bad chemistry. In 2007, there is less player churn but Payton will have to ensure that last year’s success is put behind the team (not forgotten) as they chart the course for the 2007 season. I like the coffin burial of the ghost of 2006 past and think Payton has the team on the right track. Loomis has done a good job removing other player distractions such as getting Charles Grant signed and eliminating malcontent brewing around the transition player tag.

Schedule: B If you use the strength of schedule, the Saints are in the bottom third of the league and, based on last years results, have an easy schedule. If you look beyond the strength of schedule at who the Saints play, the most difficult teams are Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Chicago, Seattle, Jacksonville and both Carolina games. Indy and Chicago are last year’s Super Bowl participants. Philadelphia has McNabb back and should be improved over last year. Seattle and Jacksonville are both talent laden teams. Carolina was nearly a consensus pick last year to go deep in the playoffs and Super Bowl. The Panthers were ravaged by injuries but, if anything, have a deeper, more talented roster this year than last. That’s seven very tough games. Tennessee, St. Louis, San Francisco, and maybe Arizona are also tough games. Tennessee finished with six consecutive wins last year. St Louis has added talent from last year. The 49ers and Cardinals are improving teams. Finally, New Orleans still has two divisional games each against Tampa Bay and Atlanta and divisional games are never easy. There are some breaks in the schedule. Even though the team starts with two road games, they have extra prep time to get ready for both. Starting the season gives the Saints more preparation time for the defending champs. Of course that works the other way as well. Then, because the first game is on a Thursday, New Orleans will have 10 days to prepare for Tampa Bay. The Saints’ first Monday night game gives them one additional day to prepare for Tennessee and then they roll into the bye week. The team should come out of the bye very refreshed and hopefully 2-1 or 3-0. The good news is that there is no 5-6 game stretch that is completely stacked against the team. I think their toughest stretch starts after the bye with Carolina and ends Nov 11 with St. Louis with Seattle being the most difficult during that run. Overall, I would say it’s a tougher schedule than the strength of schedule shows but it’s fair and not stacked.

Confidence: A Through the roof baby (say like Dick Vitale for full effect). Winning begets more winning and Sean Payton cracked the code last year. While Jim Haslett started hot with the Saints, I think Payton’s coaching style is more suited for the long haul. He teaches, trains, educates, and demands the players best in execution. As an example, penalties dropped dramatically last year. The one thing Payton and the coaching staff must be sure to avoid is creating tendencies. All the opposing teams have a full season of tape in the can and have spent the offseason analyzing the play-calling, decision-making and player packages. The coaching staff will have to come up with a new and improved bag of tricks.

The team and the fans have every right to be confident about 2007. Last season was a building block in the foundation of making the Saints a perennial winner. But last season does not predict the future. The season is played between the white lines and preseason predictions don’t mean squat. Ask the ten teams in 2006 that, when looking at the schedule, marked the Saints game as a win last year based on expert predictions.


 
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