Active Hurricane Season Predicted This Year.
This year's Atlantic hurricane season should have a higher-than-normal level of activity, with as many as 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes, and six storms could become major hurricanes, forecasters said Thursday.
Hurricane season begins June 1.
Three factors were given for this prediction:
A continuation of a period of high activity that began in 1995 as a result of ocean and atmospheric conditions.
Warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters that are conducive for hurricane formation and strengthening.
La Niņa, a pattern of cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which is expected to dissipate.
The six-month season starts June 1.
To get a name, a storm must have winds of at least 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when its winds hit 74 mph, and it becomes a major hurricane, ranking between Categories 3 and 5, with winds of at least 111 mph.
Although federal officials set out those predictions in a telephone news conference, they did not say when, where or even whether any of those storms might hit the United States.
"That's a function of time and place," said Jane Lubchenco,undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere.
Predictions this early are "next to impossible," she said. "We're pretty good at making outlooks, but translating that to landfall is beyond our capability at this point."
Lubchenco said forecasters do not expect a repeat of last season, which had 19 named storms.
"Most tropical storms and all hurricanes last year, fortunately, avoided the U.S. coastline," she said. "We cannot count on having the same luck this year."
Consequently, she and Craig Fugate, the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, stressed the importance of preparation.
"Far too many people will not be prepared and try to get ready in the last minutes when a hurricane is threatening their community and will not have time," Fugate said.
He spoke of "hurricane amnesia," which, he said, happens "when people forget risk or think they have immunity."
"If you live along the Gulf Coast, if you live along the Atlantic Coast, you've had your notice," Fugate said. "The season's going to start June 1."
Active hurricane season is predicted this year | NOLA.com
I think Al Gore writes those predictions each year.
They have been saying that every year since 2005
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