Halo

If the playoffs started today—just one tenth of the way through the regular season—the New Orleans Pelicans would own the sixth seed in the Western Conference, just ahead of the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs, who Anthony Davis and Co. beat 100-99 a week ago.

It's far too soon to make this team's postseason return official, but there are compelling reasons to believe its 5-3 start is a sign of things to come. Davis has gotten off to an MVP-caliber start. Tyreke Evans has returned to his Rookie of the Year form. Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon are healthy, and Omer Asik is proving a savvy offseason acquisition.

What's not to like?

The Pels' first three losses have come against the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers—all formidable in their own rights. And coming off Friday's franchise-record 139-point eruption against the rebuilding Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans is proving it can win the games it's supposed to win.

"We're jelling right now and I think you can tell, obviously," forward Ryan Anderson told reporters after the contest. "We're learning, but tonight was kind of a game that really solidified the fact that we understand how to play with each other...When we move the ball, it looks really good and it's just great basketball."



Assuming the Pelicans keep a good thing going, the question is where they'll land in the absolutely stacked West—especially with other up-and-coming clubs like the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings vying for playoff positions of their own. New Orleans will improve upon last season's 34-48 record, but by how much?

And if it's good enough for a playoff berth, which postseason incumbent gets squeezed out?

At the moment, that team would be the 3-7 Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC is playing without reigning MVP Kevin Durant and superstar sidekick Russell Westbrook, both scheduled to be out of service with injuries through the end of November and potentially longer.

Four of the Thunder's remaining seven games this month are against clubs that didn't make last season's playoffs, but after recent losses to the Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons, there's really no guarantee Serge Ibaka and Reggie Jackson can keep this team afloat in the near-term.

If Durant and Westbrook play most of December, Oklahoma City's postseason chances will look considerably better. Barring any setbacks, this team could very well win 70 percent of its games at full strength and storm into the playoffs with fairly respectable seeding.

The Thunder only lost 23 games a season ago, a record that was good enough to claim the No. 2 seed. So the likelihood they'll emerge from November with at least 10 losses is a sobering reminder of how well head coach Scott Brooks' squad will have to play for the remainder of the season.

The Phoenix Suns missed last season's playoffs despite losing only 34 games. Oklahoma City won't have much margin for error when healthy.

There's also a risk things don't go entirely according to plan in December.

Westbrook fractured his shooting hand, which potentially could affect his shooting during the early stages of his return. And there's no firm timeframe for Durant's return. He's indicated that—whatever happens—he's in no hurry.



"Nah, I'm not going to rush it at all," Durant told reporters in October. "That's one thing I'm not going to do. I'm sure I'll feeI better in two or three weeks, but I definitely don't want to rush it. So I'm taking my time with it.

"Blessed that it happened early in the season so I can get past it and hopefully by December I'll be ready to play."

Hopefully. But not definitely.

It required 49 wins to make the playoffs out West last season. The season before that, the magic number was 45. Given the overall improvement of teams out West, odds are this season's cutoff will be closer to 49 again.

That means Oklahoma City can't afford for injuries to rob 10 victories from the 59-win pace it set a season ago.

In an absolute worst-case scenario, the Thunder may find itself in a hole that's just too deep. In that event, the final standings may not look radically different from today's—ensuring New Orleans a spot among the West's eight best teams.

If Oklahoma City does rally and pull its season together, something else will have to give.

Could another one of last season's playoff qualifiers come up short in pursuit of those 49-or-so wins?

It's hard to imagine the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers finishing with the seventh and eighth seeds they currently hold, but it's entirely conceivable that one or both teams takes a step back. But it's unlikely either misses the playoffs.

The Golden State Warriors have jumped out to an impressive 6-2 start under new head coach Steve Kerr and look poised to compete for a top seed—probably no worse than No. 4.

The Dallas Mavericks improved their roster fairly dramatically this summer, and the Portland Trail Blazers will almost certainly benefit from in-house improvement and the quiet addition of reserve center Chris Kaman.

While the Houston Rockets ostensibly took a hit from the losses of Asik, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, they currently look as good as anyone in the league. The 8-1 record is encouraging, but it's the league-leading plus-10.0 point differential that should really draw attention. Houston has been dominant thus far, and there's virtually no chance it falls out of the playoff hunt.

The other team sitting atop the West with an 8-1 record is a different story, though.

The Memphis Grizzlies have looked good so far, but they probably won't keep it up. Over the course of the last four seasons, their best position was the No. 4 seed they locked up in 2012. They held the No. 7 seed a season ago, and it's hard to imagine remarkable improvement. Vince Carter was a nice addition, but not an especially momentous one.

Memphis may even be New Orleans' best hope when it comes to trading places with one of last season's postseason participants—especially if the Thunder reach full strength in short order.



The Grizzlies have virtually patented the role of dark-horse contender, but they were two losses away from missing the playoffs in 2013-14. Unless their hot start is a harbinger of things to come, this is a race the Pelicans could win.

In theory, anyway.

Head coach Monty Williams' team will have to do its part. That will require consistency and likely some upsets. And even then, the Pelicans aren't the only hungry team out West. The Suns and Kings are looking to make playoff inroads of their own, perhaps at New Orleans' expense.

May is still a long way away, and there's still a lot of basketball to be played. But this could really happen for the Pelicans. Last season's 34 wins may seem a far cry from the 49 it may take to get the job done, but this is a different team in some important ways.

"If we're healthy, we're for sure a playoff team," shooting guard Eric Gordon told Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy in August. "It's all about us getting together and playing because the West is tough. We know that and realize that. It's all about having a full season together...That's what we got to see this year.

"We'll have a fully-loaded team and it's about all of us being healthy. It's crazy to see how many guys were injured this past year. We never got a chance to play a full season together."

It's the tone you'd expect from a guy who missed 18 games last season. Avoiding a similar spate of injuries is a prerequisite to any playoff hopes, and so far, so good.

Besides injury risks and the stiff competition out West, the Pelicans also have to contend with their own inexperience. Led by the 21-year-old Davis and 25-or-less core of Holiday, Evans and Gordon, this is a young team. There may be some growing pains ahead.



In October, NBA.com's Jim Eichenhofer broke down just how novel a postseason appearance would be for this group:

New Orleans (34-48 last season) only has four players on its 15-man roster with NBA postseason experience, led by Omer Asik’s 33 career games. John Salmons (28 career playoff games), Ryan Anderson (20) and Jrue Holiday (18) round out the quartet. In other words, if New Orleans can advance to the playoffs this season in the brutally competitive West, Davis and 10 other Pelicans will be making their postseason debut.

Among the significant barriers to playoff entry in the West, pedigree matters. Having been there and done that, teams like the Thunder and Grizzlies have an edge in the event of a tight battle for that No. 8 seed.

But the Pelicans have something to prove, and there's no telling how far that mandate will take them.

"I think it would mean a lot to get there," Evans said in October, per Eichenhofer. "We've got a good group of guys. It would be great to get that playoff berth and be able to play playoff basketball. But we've got to start with the regular season and take one game at a time."

New Orleans has 74 more of those games to go, and—space permitting—perhaps a few more.

Read more New Orleans Pelicans news on BleacherReport.com



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