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Fantasy Guru Game predictions

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; You have to have a membership to get into the site so I just copied the article. They are pretty harsh on us right now. I guess that is to be expected. Atlanta (3-2) at New Orleans (2-3) When and ...

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Old 10-15-2005, 08:56 AM   #1
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Fantasy Guru Game predictions

You have to have a membership to get into the site so I just copied the article. They are pretty harsh on us right now. I guess that is to be expected.

Atlanta (3-2) at New Orleans (2-3)
When and Where: Sunday, October 16, 1:00 p.m. ET, San Antonio, TX
Game-time Weather Report: Inside the Alamodome.

Matchup Overview: The Falcons aren’t sure about their quarterback and their secondary, while the Saints are a team in flux, off a 52-3 pasting last week and the season-ending injury to RB Deuce McAllister. On paper, this looks like an ideal spot for the Falcons to get their groove back, but the Saints have thrown us more than one curveball this year, so maybe Jim Haslett can rally the troops with a “homeâ⠬? game on tap.



Looking Glass:



Looking Better Than Usual:



Warrick Dunn (RB, Atl) – The Saint LBs corps is one of the worst in the NFL. They have no discipline, so this is a good week for Dunn, who excels at cutback running and who has the moves to give this defense all kinds of trouble. In his last game against this defense, Dunn had 139 combined yards, including 87 yards on 6 catches, and 1 TD, and it would not be a surprise if he did something similar in this game. With the Saint running game in trouble, their defense will be on the field quite a bit, and the Falcons will wear them down.



Alge Crumpler (TE, Atl) – The Saints have been brutal against the TE, and Crumpler leads all TEs in pass targets with 38. Not only that, but he’s coming off two goods games in a row with two different QBs, so it’s safe to say he is feeling it right now. The Saints lost S Jay Bellamy and they gave up 2 TDs to the TE last week against the Packers.



Falcon Passing Game (Atl) – Other than CB Mike McKenzie, who has made some nice plays but has also been beaten, the Saint defense is very suspect in the secondary. Teams pick on CB Jason Craft, and they are completing a high percentage of their passes against this defense and have scored 8 passing TDs so far. If Michael Vick starts, he’ll be looking real good on the ground, and if Matt Schaub starts, he’ll be looking good through the air. Bottom line, the Saint defense is very beatable. WR Michael Jenkins was very active last week, but he might not go off here against McKenzie, making a guy like Brian Finneran one who could surprise. It looks like Vick will go, so you have to consider his high upside this week. The Saints should be able to keep the game close at home, so Vick should be going all out most of the game.



Aaron Brooks (QB, NO) – It’s real risky to list him here, and he’s definitely looking good ONLY fantasy-wise, but there’s reason to believe he’ll put up good numbers this week. The Falcon defense hasn’t generated a great pass rush, has some injuries to deal with, and is giving up healthy production to opposing QBs this year (242 passing yards a game). With the Saints unlikely to have much success in the running game, and with the Falcon offense looking good, Brooks should air it out a lot, and with a full complement of receivers to throw to, against Falcon safeties who are terrible in coverage, the final numbers should be there for him at home.



Atlanta Defense (Atl) – Teams facing the Saints are getting 11.8 fantasy points per game, good for 4th in the NFL. QB Aaron Brooks gets frenetic and he turns it over, so Atlanta should be good in the sack, fumble recovery, and INT category this week.



Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:



Joe Horn (WR, NO) – We expect the up-and-down Saints to come to play in this divisional game, and when they do, Horn, their undisputed team leader, will be the guy stepping up. He had 9 catches for 101 yards and 1 TD in their first meeting last year, and should be okay here in a game in which the Saints will have to throw a ton. We’d list him in the above category, but he’s coming off the two-week layoff, and CB DeAngelo Hall has done a solid job limiting opposing teams’ #1 WRs.



Antowain Smith (RB, NO) – The Atlanta defense is a much better defense when they can run, as they are more vulnerable to a power running game (like Dillon last week). That bodes well for Smith, who will get his first start of the season this week. The Falcon defense is giving up 109 rushing yards and .6 TDs per game to opposing backs, so Smith should be worth using as a #3 this week running behind a decent OL.



Looking Worse Than Usual:

None of note.



Too Risky To Play:



Az Hakim (WR, NO) – He was active and productive last week, but with Horn back, and with a guy like Devery Henderson still in the mix, you can’t rely on Hakim just yet.



Reaches of the Week:



T.J. Duckett (RB, Atl) – Against this undisciplined defensive front, the Falcons will pound the ball on the ground, which will also take away from the good Saint pass rush. With Atlanta likely to move the ball well, he should be set up near the goal, so look for him to score at the very least. He scored in 4 of his 5 games. Make it 5 out of 6 in this one.



Donte Stallworth (WR, No) – Jeez, we hate to do this, but the matchup says we have to. The Falcons will stick their best corner, Hall, on Joe Horn, so Stallworth has a chance to work over shaky corner Jason Craft, who is physical but who lacks speed. In garbage time, there will be opportunities for sure, so Stallworth makes for a solid fill-in this week. Just understand that, while he has the upside to go over 100, he has the downside to get like 9 yards total.


Ernie Conwell (TE. NO) – The Falcon safeties are a weakness for this defense, and they are doing some shuffling at LB this week with Ed Hartwell out, so Conwell could make an impact in this one. Atlanta gave up 2 TDs to the TE last week against the Falcons, too, so look for Conwell to be active as the team plays from behind.



Aaron Stecker (RB, NO) – The Saints are destined to fall behind, and when they do, they will throw a lot of screens, as they did last week. That means Stecker, who should be active on 3rd down, should get 10+ touches in his game and he should get you 50-60 total yards. Make sure Stecker, banged up, is cleared to play, though.



Team Stats:



Atlanta




Offensive Stats:
Total
Defensive Stats:
Total

Rushing Yards per game
190
Rushing Yards per game
118

Passing Yards per game
152
Passing Yards per game
218

Rushing TDs scored
6
Rushing TDs scored
3

Passing TDs scored
7
Passing TDs scored
7

New Orleans




Offensive Stats:
Total
Defensive Stats:
Total

Rushing Yards per game
110
Rushing Yards per game
123

Passing Yards per game
209
Passing Yards per game
186

Rushing TDs scored
4
Rushing TDs scored
6

Passing TDs scored
2
Passing TDs scored
8




Lineup Updates:

It looks like Vick will start this week for the Falcons.

Smith starts at RB for the Saints with Stecker being worked into the mix as the 3rd down back.



Place Kicker Report:

Since 1999, Todd Peterson has connected on six field goals during six indoor games. Two of those six field goals were from the bonus range. He missed just one field goal during those six games. Still, Peterson has not produced a double-digit fantasy scoring game indoors during the past seven years. After converting ten of his last twelve bonus range field goal attempts, John Carney missed two 43-yarders. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets more or fewer field goal opportunities now that the offense is missing Deuce McAllister.



Game Prediction:

Falcons 34 Saints 20
o1higuy is offline  
Old 10-15-2005, 10:12 AM   #2
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RE: Fantasy Guru Game predictions

The Falcons will stick their best corner, Hall, on Joe Horn, so Stallworth has a chance to work over shaky corner Jason Craft, who is physical but who lacks speed.
que?
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