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What's the Saints magic number?

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I know this is faaaaaaaaaaaaaar too early to even think about it, but am I the only one getting excited with the thoughts of actually hearing the "magic number" for the Saints to clinch a playoff spot towards the end ...

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Old 11-10-2006, 10:34 PM   #1
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What's the Saints magic number?

I know this is faaaaaaaaaaaaaar too early to even think about it, but am I the only one getting excited with the thoughts of actually hearing the "magic number" for the Saints to clinch a playoff spot towards the end of the season?

Or even clinching the division?

With a win over Pittsburgh this weekend, with a record of 7-2 they would need a total team collapse to not make the playoffs. I just can't see Sean Payton allowing that to happen.

Once again, I know this is way too early to even start talking about but I am excited!

Augie

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Old 11-10-2006, 10:51 PM   #2
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RE: What

It is way too soon. There's too many possiblities for a playoff spot to figure out a magic number. If you were figuring one for the division it would be 9. Any combo of 9 Saints wins and Falcons losses would secure us the divison. But like I said, far far far too soon since the Saints dont even have 9 games left. Next week would allow us to make a true magic number.
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Old 11-10-2006, 11:19 PM   #3
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RE: What

Far too early for Magic #.

For playoff (not divisional), look at the 3rd best record of teams that are not winning division.

Basicvally we are 2 games up on that team with 8 to play. That team = teams 'cos we have:
AF 5-3
CP 4-4
PE 4-4
DC 4-4
MV 4-4
SLR 4-4

Saints can help themselves bigtime by beating Dullards and Cats.

Other good news is that load of these have matchups against each other and so someone will lose games:

AF play CP, PE, DC,
CP play AF, PE, SLR
PE play AF, CP, DC
DC play AF, PE
MV play SLR
SLR play CP, MV

Brain hurts.

Geaux Saints.
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Old 11-10-2006, 11:55 PM   #4
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RE: What

Those initals are the worst I have ever seen.
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Old 11-11-2006, 01:21 AM   #5
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i mean no offense, but i had to read that 3 times before i understood it
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Old 11-11-2006, 01:31 AM   #6
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there is no magic number... just go out every sunday and try to get the win... plain and simple.... if we needed only 4 games, i want them to win 5..... in 2002 we were 6-2 and everyone was talking "magic numbers" and look what happened.... i know everyone will say "this is a new team, new coach, new attitude" but realistically, nobody we play is going to come out and roll over and play dead just because he only have a couple of game we need to win.... just play ball, week in and week out....
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Old 11-11-2006, 02:33 AM   #7
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Mathematically:
- to win the division, the number is 6 including beating the Falcons and the Panthers.
- to reach the playoffs, again the number is 6, regardless of whether they beat the Panthers or Falcons.
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Old 11-11-2006, 07:17 AM   #8
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Wrong. The magic number is not 6.

If we win 6 games and the Falcons win all 8 then the Falcons will win the division. Therefore, mathematically, the number is not 6. Of course, as you eluded to, if you count the Falcons game as a win (which is foolish to do) then the magic number would be 6, but thats only after the victory.

The number, as we sit right this second, is 9.
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Old 11-11-2006, 09:55 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by chRxis
there is no magic number... just go out every sunday and try to get the win...
Absolutely. Unlike baseball, basketball, and hockey where there are tons and tons of games, each NFL team only has 16 opportunities to advance their cause. In other sports you can have mini slumps without too much effect. But in the NFL losing 2 or 3 games can have you sitting home in January.
plain and simple.... if we needed only 4 games, i want them to win 5..... in 2002 we were 6-2 and everyone was talking "magic numbers" and look what happened.... i know everyone will say "this is a new team, new coach, new attitude" but realistically, nobody we play is going to come out and roll over and play dead just because he only have a couple of game we need to win.... just play ball, week in and week out....
Bingo. You can watch important matchups from week to week. However, at the end of day the Saints need to take care of their own business.

And that starts tomorrow in Pittsburg. And don't be fooled by the record. Pittsburg is a very very dangerous team. They have both a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense. They've stumbled so far due to turnovers (24 so far). If Pittsburg plays a mistake free game, they can compete with anyone in the NFL including the Saints. It's not going to be a walk by any measure.

SFIAH

Super Bowl Championships New Orleans Saints:1, Atlanta:0, Carolina:0

Life is good.
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Old 11-11-2006, 10:10 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by smyce
Wrong. The magic number is not 6.
I do believe that was qualfied.

If we win 6 games and the Falcons win all 8 then the Falcons will win the division.
The qualification was that we win 6 including beating the Falcons and the Panthers. We do that we finish 12-4 with a 5-1 division record, a sweep of the Falcons, and a split with the Panthers, who have already lost to the Falcons.

So even if the Falcons and Panthers finish with their best possible records (each one going 7-1, but not both because they play each other again) then the Falcons could only finish 12-4 and the Panthers can only finish 11-5. In the case of the Falcons, we would have swept them, so we win the division. In the case of the Panthers, we finish one game ahead. Even in the case of a tie, if we beat the Panthers then it goes to division record, and they'd have at least 2 division losses if my math is right.

Now 12-4 and losing the division. So we lose both the Falcons and the Panthers, and the Falcons go 7-1 or 8-0. That means they beat the Panthers too so we finish ahead. Also I don't think there's any scenario where any of the current 4-4 teams can also go 8-0. Finally we'd be 9-3 in the conference.
All of the current 4-4 teams have at least 2 conference losses and of course would win their division if they go 8-0.
Therefore, mathematically, the number is not 6. Of course, as you eluded to, if you count the Falcons game as a win (which is foolish to do) then the magic number would be 6, but thats only after the victory.

The number, as we sit right this second, is 9.
The 6 was qualfied. And I don't think we were talking about a true magic number, which is a combo of wins and losses. We're talking about Saints wins required to clinch a playoff berth.

It's all idle mathematical speculation anyway. There's way too much season to even start this discussion. The only task is to get to 7-2. If the team can keep their focus limited only to the task at hand, everything else will take care of itself.

SFIAH

Super Bowl Championships New Orleans Saints:1, Atlanta:0, Carolina:0

Life is good.
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