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this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; dido duce first team to 4 wins i agree. Dec 24 Carolina the loss of McNabb looms big right now....

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Old 11-22-2006, 04:36 PM   #11
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dido duce
first team to 4 wins i agree. Dec 24 Carolina
the loss of McNabb looms big right now.
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Old 11-22-2006, 07:00 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by TallySaint
BTW are we not second in the NFC right now?
Hmm.... we're second in our division right now.
I forgot about Carolina. Hopefully they will provide incentive not to further screw up. We'll be chasing them until we get a game up again or until we meet them the last game of the season.

Carolina has already lost 3 conference games. They have 5 conference games down the stretch with only Pittsburg in the AFC left.

If we fall to Carolina the last game, then the point is probably moot as we'd have to finish a game ahead of Carolina to win the division.

However, if we take that game, then the head to head goes back to even, and division record comes into play. Right now that's tied 3-1 each.

So the Falcons game is a must win. We take care of the Falcons then we're in the best division position we can get in walking into the last game. Then we can have Carolina come in any of a game ahead, tied, or a game behind with a chance to win the division.

The key is understanding that the #2 seed is still in reach. Frankly, if a two game losing streak, or losing 3 out of 4, needed to occur, losing to the AFC North was the way to do it.

Let's look at the teams left in the NFC that currently have winning/even conference records:

East: NY, Dallas
North: Chicago, Minnesota
South: Carolina, NO, Atl
West: Seattle, San Fran.

Now on this list we only do not play the North teams and Seattle. That leaves 5 games against the direct opposition in the division and conference (along with
Washington). Each of those 5 teams have more conference losses than the Saints. Of course head to head is the first tiebreaker.

So here's the priority order of wins going down the stretch:

1) Panthers - Must win. In the division. Needed to even head to head and to put a second division loss on Carolina.

2) Falcons - Another must win. In the division. Needed to keep division record intact. Also needed to push Falcons a full 2 games behind us.

3) Giants - Currently are 1/2 game behind us in the conference. May lose their division so may be moot point. Still want the head to head.

4) Cowboys - Looking like a division winner at this point as they have the least injuries. So plunking a loss on them means they have to finish a full game.

5) San Francisco - May win their division considering that Seattle still has Denver, San Diego, and a rematch with San Francisco down the stretch. The 49ers have 3 games against teams with winning records too (Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans). They are only a game behind the Saints, so a win is a definite plus.

6) Washington - Out of the playoffs. But the Saints cannot afford to be trapped in a conference loss.

We are in complete control. It would have been further cemented with a win (or two) in the last couple of weeks.

SFIAH

The Saints have been to playoffs 4 of the last 5 years and a own a SB championship.

I can hardly believe this happened in my lifetime.
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Old 11-22-2006, 07:19 PM   #13
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The Saints have to beat Atlanta because if we lose this one it puts them in a very tough position.
We need to win this game plus, Wash., 49'ers and Carolina to have any chance in making the playoffs.
I don't see us beating Dallas and see Carolina improving each week so the Saints need to handle up NOW.
The season IMO starts Sunday for the Saints, their defense is getting worst each week, if we continue to play as we have the last 2-3 weeks then I say we're done, well done.
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Old 11-22-2006, 07:28 PM   #14
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Good analysis SFIAH.

Play one game at a time and there's nothing to worry about. Win the next two, lose to the boys, win the next three and there may be a bye in our future.

Optimistically, this team could win out. Realistically, there's 3 wins in there and we need to sneak another one te ensure playoffs. Pessimistically,there's probably only two sure wins (WAS and NYG), and 8-8 stays home.
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Old 11-23-2006, 12:34 PM   #15
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@ NYG is a sure win? did i miss something?

i hope youre not saying that cuz of the way Eli is playing, struggling quarterbacks always come to life when playing our secondary
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Old 11-23-2006, 03:34 PM   #16
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Every game we play from here on out
is huge. Every team that have a chance
to get into the playoff is stepping up and
is playing aggressive and hitting hard.
If we can not compete at that level we
can foreget about the playoff.

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Old 11-23-2006, 07:22 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by along
Every game we play from here on out
is huge.
True. Beat Atlanta - all good. Don't and.
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Old 11-24-2006, 07:34 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by LongTimeFan
The Saints have to beat Atlanta because if we lose this one it puts them in a very tough position.
Definitely. According to the playoff determining rules, division wins only come second to head to head in importance. And since getting head to head splits occur so often, the division record is critical.
We need to win this game plus, Wash., 49'ers and Carolina to have any chance in making the playoffs.
10-6 will probably get a team into the playoffs. The positioning will be dicey though.

I don't see us beating Dallas and see Carolina improving each week so the Saints need to handle up NOW.
Dallas and Carolina are two of the three key games along with the Falcons. Dallas will end up being a shootout. Depending on the turnover situation, the Saints can win a shootout.

The Dallas game will be key because it's looking like they will win the East. If they do and the teams end up tied, then playoff positioning will go right to that head to head matchup.

If you want to get deep into the playoffs, you have to be able to beat not only the weak sisters, but also your rival teams.
The season IMO starts Sunday for the Saints, their defense is getting worst each week, if we continue to play as we have the last 2-3 weeks then I say we're done, well done.
I think we all know that our defense is limited. But I also think we have the offense to compensate. The key is not turning the ball over, because it puts our defense in really bad positions, and to put the ball in the end zone, so that we can keep up in a shootout.

I also think we need to run the ball more in order to control the clock.

The Saints play better with a lead. That leads to a more ball control offense. Playing from behind and slinging the ball all over the field gets us in trouble.

SFIAH

The Saints have been to playoffs 4 of the last 5 years and a own a SB championship.

I can hardly believe this happened in my lifetime.
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