Not enough elite talent could mean trades

hagan714 · 04-22-2008, 10:32 PM

Theme for NFL Draft? Not enough elite talent could mean trades

By Charley Casserly

Every NFL Draft has its "character" and theme. As in any draft there are positions that seem strong and others that appear weak. The reality is we really have no idea how these players at these positions are going to play in the NFL, but for now we have to go on what we think of them as prospects going into the draft.
After looking at tape and talking to close to 100 coaches, scouts and GMs, these are the feelings on the strengths and weakness of the different positions: • Offensive line is strong at the tackle position, especially in the first round, but center and guard are below average.

• The fullback position is weak as usual, but the running back position is very strong.

• Tight end is lacking a true first-rounder but has good depth in the second and third rounds.

• The wide receiver position has a group that fits better as Nos. 2 and 3 receivers with possibly only one WR being a consensus first-round pick (Devin Thomas).

• On defense the safety position is very weak.

• The corner position has no true standouts but seems to have some depth through the first two rounds.

• At the linebacker position there are possibly two first-round linebackers (Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo) and then some depth in the second round.

• At the defensive tackle position there are probably three first-rounders (Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer) and then the bottom falls out.

• At defensive end you seem to have a good group in the first round (Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Philip Merling -- recovering from a hernia surgery) and some interesting guys in the second and third rounds. When putting together a mock draft, what struck me as the theme of the first day was the needs of the teams at the beginning of the draft were aligned with the strongest positions. Therefore, teams in the second half of the first round will be in danger of not getting the guys they need, despite the depth at certain positions. Let's look at some examples of this.

There are a consensus five offensive tackles -- if you count Branden Albert as an offensive tackle and I think he will be drafted as one -- in the first round. Start at the top of the draft with Miami, St. Louis, Atlanta, Kansas City in the first five picks and then go to Denver (12), Carolina (13) and Chicago (14). You have six teams that need offensive tackles. Houston (18 with a need at offensive tackle will probably not see one of those five tackles. The other four tackles are Jake Long (already signed with the Dolphins), Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah and Chris Williams.

Another example is running back. The consensus first-rounders are Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart, who is in a boot now due to toe surgery. Other players who could get into the first round are Felix Jones and Jamaal Charles. Both of these players are viewed more as situation backs, but Jones has a few backers who believe he could become a full-time starter.

When you look at teams with RB needs, the numbers run out too fast for teams in the second half of the first round. You have to figure Darren McFadden will go early in the first round. Mendenhall will go somewhere between Denver (12), Carolina (13) and Chicago (14). That leaves Arizona (16), Houston (18, Tampa Bay (20), Dallas (22 and 28 and Tennessee (24) to divide up Stewart (who despite the foot injury will go in the first round, from what I am told), Jones and Charles.

The other position that will cause teams problems is cornerback. There seem to be four consensus first-round corners: Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins and Aqib Talib.

Teams with a need at corner are New England, though I do not believe they will take one at No. 7; the New York Jets, again too early to take a corner; New Orleans (10), Buffalo (11), Arizona (16), Houston (18, Dallas (22 and 28, Green Bay (30) and the New York Giants (31). Once again there are more teams that need cornerbacks than first-round corners available. Because of this situation, I believe you could see a few more trades in the first round then we have seen in the past few years.

With the time being cut to 10 minutes in the first round, teams will have to move quicker then they are accustomed to to make first-round trades.

Also, teams in the 20-plus-pick area have to decide whether to force a player up into the first round or take a player who is the best on the their board, or trade up to fill a need, or trade back to get extra picks.

National Football League - CBSSports.com

Now this article sums up a lot of postions and team needs. Charley did a great job on this one.

BRSaintsFan · 04-22-2008, 10:59 PM

Good read.

At the defensive tackle position there are probably three first-rounders (Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer) and then the bottom falls out.

I think that supports our efforts to trade up and go after Dorsey or Ellis.

The corner position has no true standouts but seems to have some depth through the first two rounds.

• At the linebacker position there are possibly two first-round linebackers (Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo) and then some depth in the second round.

Again, if we stay put, the prospects at these positions gives us two solid picks at 10 and 40.

The fullback position is weak as usual, but the running back position is very strong.

Unless we are drafting a RB in the first round, the strength of the position allows us to hold off until the middle rounds and still nab a good prospect capable of contributing.

ScottF · 04-23-2008, 01:20 PM

Originally Posted by BRSaintsFan

Good read.

Unless we are drafting a RB in the first round, the strength of the position allows us to hold off until the middle rounds and still nab a good prospect capable of contributing.

Other than a first round back (Mendenhall, McFadden) I can't see us wasting a pick on a RB. Stecker & Thomas proved they were solid, and Karney has FB locked down.

BRSaintsFan · 04-23-2008, 02:05 PM

Karney does have FB locked down and Stecker and Thomas showed the ability to take over in last season. But Deuce will not be the same and Stecker isnt getting any younger. Unless you are sold on Thomas being able to conistently run between the tackles, it wouldn't hurt to add a mid round RB that can do so.

saintsfan1976 · 04-23-2008, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by BRSaintsFan

Good read.

At the defensive tackle position there are probably three first-rounders (Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer) and then the bottom falls out.

I think that supports our efforts to trade up and go after Dorsey or Ellis.

The corner position has no true standouts but seems to have some depth through the first two rounds.

• At the linebacker position there are possibly two first-round linebackers (Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo) and then some depth in the second round.

Again, if we stay put, the prospects at these positions gives us two solid picks at 10 and 40.

The fullback position is weak as usual, but the running back position is very strong.

Unless we are drafting a RB in the first round, the strength of the position allows us to hold off until the middle rounds and still nab a good prospect capable of contributing.

I can agree with this.

BG12136 · 04-24-2008, 07:00 PM

The more I think about it, I think if Saints aren't able to trade up to say the 7th pick and select DT Ellis, and if Rivers doesn't drop to the 10th pick, I say forget about drafting a CB here. Instead I think the move is to trade down to the late first round and select either LB Mayo or DT Balmer and get another pick. I might even trade down twice in the first if you can still pickup DT Balmer and get another high second round pick. Then use the two 2nd rounders to pick up depth at CB and LB.

04-22-2008, 10:32 PM	#1
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Not enough elite talent could mean trades Theme for NFL Draft? Not enough elite talent could mean trades By Charley Casserly Every NFL Draft has its "character" and theme. As in any draft there are positions that seem strong and others that appear weak. The reality is we really have no idea how these players at these positions are going to play in the NFL, but for now we have to go on what we think of them as prospects going into the draft. After looking at tape and talking to close to 100 coaches, scouts and GMs, these are the feelings on the strengths and weakness of the different positions: • Offensive line is strong at the tackle position, especially in the first round, but center and guard are below average. • The fullback position is weak as usual, but the running back position is very strong. • Tight end is lacking a true first-rounder but has good depth in the second and third rounds. • The wide receiver position has a group that fits better as Nos. 2 and 3 receivers with possibly only one WR being a consensus first-round pick (Devin Thomas). • On defense the safety position is very weak. • The corner position has no true standouts but seems to have some depth through the first two rounds. • At the linebacker position there are possibly two first-round linebackers (Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo) and then some depth in the second round. • At the defensive tackle position there are probably three first-rounders (Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer) and then the bottom falls out. • At defensive end you seem to have a good group in the first round (Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Philip Merling -- recovering from a hernia surgery) and some interesting guys in the second and third rounds. When putting together a mock draft, what struck me as the theme of the first day was the needs of the teams at the beginning of the draft were aligned with the strongest positions. Therefore, teams in the second half of the first round will be in danger of not getting the guys they need, despite the depth at certain positions. Let's look at some examples of this. There are a consensus five offensive tackles -- if you count Branden Albert as an offensive tackle and I think he will be drafted as one -- in the first round. Start at the top of the draft with Miami, St. Louis, Atlanta, Kansas City in the first five picks and then go to Denver (12), Carolina (13) and Chicago (14). You have six teams that need offensive tackles. Houston (18 with a need at offensive tackle will probably not see one of those five tackles. The other four tackles are Jake Long (already signed with the Dolphins), Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah and Chris Williams. Another example is running back. The consensus first-rounders are Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart, who is in a boot now due to toe surgery. Other players who could get into the first round are Felix Jones and Jamaal Charles. Both of these players are viewed more as situation backs, but Jones has a few backers who believe he could become a full-time starter. When you look at teams with RB needs, the numbers run out too fast for teams in the second half of the first round. You have to figure Darren McFadden will go early in the first round. Mendenhall will go somewhere between Denver (12), Carolina (13) and Chicago (14). That leaves Arizona (16), Houston (18, Tampa Bay (20), Dallas (22 and 28 and Tennessee (24) to divide up Stewart (who despite the foot injury will go in the first round, from what I am told), Jones and Charles. The other position that will cause teams problems is cornerback. There seem to be four consensus first-round corners: Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins and Aqib Talib. Teams with a need at corner are New England, though I do not believe they will take one at No. 7; the New York Jets, again too early to take a corner; New Orleans (10), Buffalo (11), Arizona (16), Houston (18, Dallas (22 and 28, Green Bay (30) and the New York Giants (31). Once again there are more teams that need cornerbacks than first-round corners available. Because of this situation, I believe you could see a few more trades in the first round then we have seen in the past few years. With the time being cut to 10 minutes in the first round, teams will have to move quicker then they are accustomed to to make first-round trades. Also, teams in the 20-plus-pick area have to decide whether to force a player up into the first round or take a player who is the best on the their board, or trade up to fill a need, or trade back to get extra picks. National Football League - CBSSports.com Now this article sums up a lot of postions and team needs. Charley did a great job on this one.
	"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

04-22-2008, 10:59 PM	#2
BRSaintsFan 100th Post Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 449	Re: Not enough elite talent could mean trades Good read. At the defensive tackle position there are probably three first-rounders (Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer) and then the bottom falls out. I think that supports our efforts to trade up and go after Dorsey or Ellis. The corner position has no true standouts but seems to have some depth through the first two rounds. • At the linebacker position there are possibly two first-round linebackers (Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo) and then some depth in the second round. Again, if we stay put, the prospects at these positions gives us two solid picks at 10 and 40. The fullback position is weak as usual, but the running back position is very strong. Unless we are drafting a RB in the first round, the strength of the position allows us to hold off until the middle rounds and still nab a good prospect capable of contributing.

04-23-2008, 01:20 PM	#3
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Re: Not enough elite talent could mean trades Originally Posted by BRSaintsFan Good read. Unless we are drafting a RB in the first round, the strength of the position allows us to hold off until the middle rounds and still nab a good prospect capable of contributing. Other than a first round back (Mendenhall, McFadden) I can't see us wasting a pick on a RB. Stecker & Thomas proved they were solid, and Karney has FB locked down.

04-23-2008, 02:05 PM	#4
BRSaintsFan 100th Post Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 449	Re: Not enough elite talent could mean trades Karney does have FB locked down and Stecker and Thomas showed the ability to take over in last season. But Deuce will not be the same and Stecker isnt getting any younger. Unless you are sold on Thomas being able to conistently run between the tackles, it wouldn't hurt to add a mid round RB that can do so.

04-23-2008, 02:23 PM	#5
saintsfan1976 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 10,536 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Not enough elite talent could mean trades Originally Posted by BRSaintsFan Good read. At the defensive tackle position there are probably three first-rounders (Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer) and then the bottom falls out. I think that supports our efforts to trade up and go after Dorsey or Ellis. The corner position has no true standouts but seems to have some depth through the first two rounds. • At the linebacker position there are possibly two first-round linebackers (Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo) and then some depth in the second round. Again, if we stay put, the prospects at these positions gives us two solid picks at 10 and 40. The fullback position is weak as usual, but the running back position is very strong. Unless we are drafting a RB in the first round, the strength of the position allows us to hold off until the middle rounds and still nab a good prospect capable of contributing. I can agree with this.

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04-24-2008, 07:00 PM	#6
BG12136 Rookie Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 18	Re: Not enough elite talent could mean trades The more I think about it, I think if Saints aren't able to trade up to say the 7th pick and select DT Ellis, and if Rivers doesn't drop to the 10th pick, I say forget about drafting a CB here. Instead I think the move is to trade down to the late first round and select either LB Mayo or DT Balmer and get another pick. I might even trade down twice in the first if you can still pickup DT Balmer and get another high second round pick. Then use the two 2nd rounders to pick up depth at CB and LB.
BG12136 Rookie Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 18