Saints Draft Grade

hagan714 · 04-30-2008, 07:39 PM

thanks JKOOL

talent available + team needs = grade

you back to the old debate, team needs vs. best player available.

Completely objective.

Thats why you always see them go back three or four years later to regrade teams. You have to get the players on the field. 2 years ago the saints were said to be reaching and every media source was wondering what the heck they were doing. Next year they will look at regrading the class and you can listen to the media admit they were wrong.

IMO team needs are over rated. You try to address them if you can and pray the BPA addresses those needs. If not oh well you take the player that is there or try to trade out and start praying again.

team needs are best addressed in FA. even that is Completely objective

JKool · 04-30-2008, 07:45 PM

Euph, I believe I agree.

However, I do think that scouts (et.al.) are evaluating something in players (even before the player has played a single down in the NFL). This means that projections must count for something, right?

Here is an interpretation: draft grades given now include a lot of projection, wishful thinking, and judgments that are relative to how much a team appears to have improved; this is not worth much (though not worthless). This I think reflects the idea that draft grades are "good reads" to a certain extent. Draft grades given a couple of years would be more accurate assessments of how much a given draft improved a team. However, these later grades wouldn't be as much use in assessing the draft strategy of the current front office, since all they had to go on was projections.

Maybe there are two very different grades to be given regarding each draft: (1) a grade of how reasonable a Front Office behaved given the information they have and the roster they have, versus (2) a grade for the actual impact a draft has on a team. The first could be done "now-ish", whereas the second can only be done "later-ish"?

hagan714 · 04-30-2008, 07:47 PM

that sums it up beautifully. LOL

JKool · 04-30-2008, 07:51 PM

Hagan, I believe I agree with you on BPA.

I am confused by what you mean by "completely objective"? I take it you mean that there is some forumla for determining which is the BPA, even if it is based on projections (and the like). With this formula, we can determine if teams took the BPA or not. Teams that take BPAs are given higher grades. Is this right?

If this is the case, and just to check that I'm understanding, do you think trading down ever makes sense? If it does, then it seems that there are times that a team should not take the BPA. Maybe this is what you have in mind by adding "team need" to the grade equation?

I guess, I'm just trying to get a handle on how the grades are assessed, and how they are to be interpreted.

JKool · 04-30-2008, 07:54 PM

Ah. I see you liked my earlier take.

Though, I think I have the idea of two very different kind of grades now, I'm wondering what really goes into them.

The second grade (team impact in the long run) is pretty obvious, but what are the kinds of things that go into the first grade (assessment of the FO given the information available)?

Crusader · 05-01-2008, 06:26 AM

I was probably the most happy with the Carl Nicks pick in the 5th. He graded as a 1-2 rounde ron some peoples draftboards and might be an absolute steal for us.

hagan714 · 05-01-2008, 04:27 PM

completely objective:
If you take all the draft board teams use and compare them, I am going to bet you that you would be lucky to find 10% of the players ranked in the spot.

there is no real formula that I know off. game tapes road trips, the workouts, interviews and then back to game tapes. A lot of it comes down to the gut feeling.

Most regraded drafts talk about starters 4 years down the road.

JKool · 05-01-2008, 04:42 PM

I see.

Do you think it is likely that if you took all the boards, players (especially near the top) would be graded roughly the same (in terms of BPA - since I'm guessing the individual boards figure in team need)? That is, say, player x is graded at spot 6 plus or minus say 3? This would go a long way to showing that the judgment is (somewhat) objective.

jeanpierre · 05-02-2008, 07:07 AM

I don't believe you can limit team needs and talent available and then revisit a draft three years later to conclude the performance on a draft...

Other considerations should include...

Immediate impact on team...

The drafting of Deuce McAllister definitely lit a fire under Ricky Williams; even though Deuce did not "carry the load" as Williams did right away it had its effect; there may be other examples you can relate to of your favorite players but the point is draft impact on a team, whether on a veteran or a group of veterans...

Immediate impact on culture and fan base...

Probably best example I can point to is if you're a Saints Fan, the moment encapsulating the Friday that Houston announced it was taking Mario Williams until the Tuesday Morning following the MNF game against Atlanta; the team, the fans, the arrival of a National Superstar on the Team; it just seemed like everything had turned the corner and inspired play would be the difference; this manifestation is the blocked punt and score...

I think the performance of the Front Office during the draft process; not making gaffs such as the Vikings not turning in their pics in a timely fashion; being either agressive with trades (moving up or down) or being patient, poised allowing players to fall rather than giving up the farm to get the County Prized Cow...

Lastly...how fast a player develops, adjusts and contributes; You may have a guy who develops into a HOF playing level in three to four years, but I would argue in the interests of the team performance that a guy that comes in right away and performs at say a ProBowl Alternate level, though may never reach the HOF is as much a successful pick; Saints fans for years watched as Fink's picks were developed here and went to other clubs to have breakout seasons...

The Steelers drafts of the seventies, 49ers of the eighties, they just seem to move into the rights slots or remained poised to get the best player available that also significantly improved their clubs...

JKool · 05-02-2008, 07:36 AM

Jean, thanks for the interesting thoughts.

I hadn't really considered timeliness of impact as a factor before. That seems to be something that can be both projected and determined after the fact, so it goes into both kinds of grading I've been considering.

Further, impact on the fan base is an interesting proposal. I'm not sure what I think about this. Certainly if reflects some rationality of on the part of the front office in the "now-ish" grade; however, the decision isn't a purely football decision (since it is aimed at pleasing the fans, rather than improving the team - though it could also do that). This factor has an interesting impact on how we should think about the "now-ish" grade - this grade includes some level of "excitement" about the player relative to where he ends up.

Interesting!

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04-30-2008, 07:39 PM	#31
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Re: Saints Draft Grade thanks JKOOL talent available + team needs = grade you back to the old debate, team needs vs. best player available. Completely objective. Thats why you always see them go back three or four years later to regrade teams. You have to get the players on the field. 2 years ago the saints were said to be reaching and every media source was wondering what the heck they were doing. Next year they will look at regrading the class and you can listen to the media admit they were wrong. IMO team needs are over rated. You try to address them if you can and pray the BPA addresses those needs. If not oh well you take the player that is there or try to trade out and start praying again. team needs are best addressed in FA. even that is Completely objective
	"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

04-30-2008, 07:45 PM	#32
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Re: Saints Draft Grade Euph, I believe I agree. However, I do think that scouts (et.al.) are evaluating something in players (even before the player has played a single down in the NFL). This means that projections must count for something, right? Here is an interpretation: draft grades given now include a lot of projection, wishful thinking, and judgments that are relative to how much a team appears to have improved; this is not worth much (though not worthless). This I think reflects the idea that draft grades are "good reads" to a certain extent. Draft grades given a couple of years would be more accurate assessments of how much a given draft improved a team. However, these later grades wouldn't be as much use in assessing the draft strategy of the current front office, since all they had to go on was projections. Maybe there are two very different grades to be given regarding each draft: (1) a grade of how reasonable a Front Office behaved given the information they have and the roster they have, versus (2) a grade for the actual impact a draft has on a team. The first could be done "now-ish", whereas the second can only be done "later-ish"?
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

04-30-2008, 07:47 PM	#33
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Re: Saints Draft Grade that sums it up beautifully. LOL

04-30-2008, 07:51 PM	#34
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Re: Saints Draft Grade Hagan, I believe I agree with you on BPA. I am confused by what you mean by "completely objective"? I take it you mean that there is some forumla for determining which is the BPA, even if it is based on projections (and the like). With this formula, we can determine if teams took the BPA or not. Teams that take BPAs are given higher grades. Is this right? If this is the case, and just to check that I'm understanding, do you think trading down ever makes sense? If it does, then it seems that there are times that a team should not take the BPA. Maybe this is what you have in mind by adding "team need" to the grade equation? I guess, I'm just trying to get a handle on how the grades are assessed, and how they are to be interpreted.
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

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04-30-2008, 07:54 PM	#35
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Re: Saints Draft Grade Ah. I see you liked my earlier take. Though, I think I have the idea of two very different kind of grades now, I'm wondering what really goes into them. The second grade (team impact in the long run) is pretty obvious, but what are the kinds of things that go into the first grade (assessment of the FO given the information available)?

05-01-2008, 06:26 AM	#36
Crusader Resident Swede Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Märsta, Sweden Posts: 7,984	Re: Saints Draft Grade I was probably the most happy with the Carl Nicks pick in the 5th. He graded as a 1-2 rounde ron some peoples draftboards and might be an absolute steal for us.

05-01-2008, 04:27 PM	#37
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Re: Saints Draft Grade completely objective: If you take all the draft board teams use and compare them, I am going to bet you that you would be lucky to find 10% of the players ranked in the spot. there is no real formula that I know off. game tapes road trips, the workouts, interviews and then back to game tapes. A lot of it comes down to the gut feeling. Most regraded drafts talk about starters 4 years down the road.

05-01-2008, 04:42 PM	#38
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Re: Saints Draft Grade I see. Do you think it is likely that if you took all the boards, players (especially near the top) would be graded roughly the same (in terms of BPA - since I'm guessing the individual boards figure in team need)? That is, say, player x is graded at spot 6 plus or minus say 3? This would go a long way to showing that the judgment is (somewhat) objective.

05-02-2008, 07:07 AM	#39
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Saints Draft Grade I don't believe you can limit team needs and talent available and then revisit a draft three years later to conclude the performance on a draft... Other considerations should include... Immediate impact on team... The drafting of Deuce McAllister definitely lit a fire under Ricky Williams; even though Deuce did not "carry the load" as Williams did right away it had its effect; there may be other examples you can relate to of your favorite players but the point is draft impact on a team, whether on a veteran or a group of veterans... Immediate impact on culture and fan base... Probably best example I can point to is if you're a Saints Fan, the moment encapsulating the Friday that Houston announced it was taking Mario Williams until the Tuesday Morning following the MNF game against Atlanta; the team, the fans, the arrival of a National Superstar on the Team; it just seemed like everything had turned the corner and inspired play would be the difference; this manifestation is the blocked punt and score... I think the performance of the Front Office during the draft process; not making gaffs such as the Vikings not turning in their pics in a timely fashion; being either agressive with trades (moving up or down) or being patient, poised allowing players to fall rather than giving up the farm to get the County Prized Cow... Lastly...how fast a player develops, adjusts and contributes; You may have a guy who develops into a HOF playing level in three to four years, but I would argue in the interests of the team performance that a guy that comes in right away and performs at say a ProBowl Alternate level, though may never reach the HOF is as much a successful pick; Saints fans for years watched as Fink's picks were developed here and went to other clubs to have breakout seasons... The Steelers drafts of the seventies, 49ers of the eighties, they just seem to move into the rights slots or remained poised to get the best player available that also significantly improved their clubs...
	It's not that my way is the right way, I just make the right way my way... Last edited by jeanpierre; 05-02-2008 at 07:10 AM..

05-02-2008, 07:36 AM	#40
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	Re: Saints Draft Grade Jean, thanks for the interesting thoughts. I hadn't really considered timeliness of impact as a factor before. That seems to be something that can be both projected and determined after the fact, so it goes into both kinds of grading I've been considering. Further, impact on the fan base is an interesting proposal. I'm not sure what I think about this. Certainly if reflects some rationality of on the part of the front office in the "now-ish" grade; however, the decision isn't a purely football decision (since it is aimed at pleasing the fans, rather than improving the team - though it could also do that). This factor has an interesting impact on how we should think about the "now-ish" grade - this grade includes some level of "excitement" about the player relative to where he ends up. Interesting!
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks