NO-ATL Spread
 

According to the current line, the Saints are a 10 point favorite against the Falcons. Some lines have the Saints as much as a 12.5 point favorite. Is this bandwagon jumping or have the dirty birds regressed? Is the Pokes bye week trampling of the tired Falcons more indicative of their season or did ATL simply have a bad game?

Sure, the game is at home, and the favored team that has won has covered the spread for the last 5 times. It is worrying that any line in the NFL gets into double digits and more troubling when that particular game is with an arch-enemy.

What is the take on the Falcons this year? Who has seen them and what makes the oddsmakers believe that the Saints win nearly 80% of simulations?

Re: NO-ATL Spread
 

One thing of note is that Vegas rarely makes mistakes. They could care less about allegiances to teams. This is why I think that NCAA football should follow Vegas rankings instead of BCS rankings.

So if they say Saints by 10. It is a much better predication than anywhere else you can find. Because to them it is all about making $$$ and not rooting for teams.

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Hey guys, ive watched most of the Falcons games and they seem to be inconsistent, e.g they blasted the 49ers one week, and then buckled against the cowboys. From what ive seen, Michael Turner is not the same guy he was last year.

If we can get a rythm going early we will put ourself in good position, matt ryan had a lot of pressure put on him the cowboys game so lets go greg williams, send the pressure as always!!

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WOW ... pretty bold .... but it IS Monday night ... and the Dome will be rocking .. maybe even like the first game after Katrina, the last time the Falclowns did not have a chance. Is U2 schedule to play before the game also?

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We've won every game by 10 or more points, Vegas books need to get some of their money back!

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We're 6-0 against the spread this season. Gamblers will take notice of that.

And keep in mind, Vegas' objective is not to predict the margin of victory, but to get the bets even on both sides. That's why the spread moves. They want more money on ATL.

This happened two seasons ago when the Pats were blowing everyone out. Eventually the line will over-correct.

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THIS IS EXACTLY RIGHT!!! Its not that Vegas or anyone knows what they are doing they are trying to keep the money or lop-sided bets breaking the house. If people keep put money on the Saints the spread will go up to get people to put money on the falcons to cover the Saints bets they took in to even out as best they can.

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It is not that they know what they are doing more so as they do it with indifference. So you can bet that they try to get the lines as close as possible while trying to also sway bets at the same time. Still leads to more accurate lines imho.

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Yes, I understand the theory behind setting the spreads, I'm wondering why the line keeps creeping up. What is it about the perception of those betting that makes people believe that the Saints are 10-12 points better than the Flakeons? They were the division favorites September 1, now, they're scrambling to be part of the wild card discussion. What do we know unconsciously that we should illuminate so that we can explain this?

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We are 6-0 against the number this season. Our closest game this season was a 12 point win. We average 40 ppg.

If I was an unbiased bettor I would be loading the wagons on the Saints until the streak stops.

If this was the opening game of the season, you'd probably see something close to a pick'em or even the Falcs slightly favored.

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No one knows its people follow whats going on and the trend that is taking place.

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Atlanta has problems on both sides of the ball. I'd think that people who gamble would look at their performance before placing a bet:
- "Burner" Turner is not burning anybody. Reggie has better rushing numbers than Turner.
- Ryan didn't look so great against Chicago or Dallas. His o-line all of the sudden is suspect.
- The secondary is not very good.
- Abraham has not even smelled a QB the past 2 games.
- They barely beat a Chicago team at home that "got debacled" by the Bengals.
- The Cowboys, who aren't that good, did a number on them.
- they don't score many points.

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If we keep beating teams by 10 or more points then a 10 point spread isn't unrealistic...our defense has scored in every game I think, if they continue to score we should easily get the spread.

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Already has been said......
But Vegas computed an opening line based on all their know-how. Now the line moves in line with bettors. At the moment, more money is still going on the Saints to beat the spread. I think we will see some reversal once the line gets closer to 2TDs.

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Saints should be able to put up 40 on this team, so the point spread is about right.

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Tobias made a good point; the running game of Atlanta isn't what it was last year, and they know a shoot-out will end up with high point totals for the Saints.
The other factor is that the Falcons' secondary has been performing very similarly to the NY Jets. They're susceptible to big plays and they have undersized corners. Brees loves throwing to his tall boys even when covered, and the Saints usually win those battles.

It's a good matchup for the Saints, but they need to maintain momentum. The Falcons are talented and they've only lost 2 games to quality opponents.