Peter King: Who I Like Tonight
 

Who I Like Tonight

Though I've written about it a few times, and others have done so before and after that, you're making a big mistake if you view the 10-0 Saints as a team that has to throw for 350 yards to win. New Orleans ran on 38 percent of its offensive snaps last year. This year, it's 49 percent rushing.

That's no surprise to the Patriots. When I spoke with safety Brandon Meriweather the other day, he said normally he'd watch maybe four games of a team. Preparing for this game, he said he'd watch every Saints game -- as well as sitting in with Belichick on a one-on-one session to get his take of the important keys against the New Orleans offense.

"The thing I've noticed about Brees,'' said Meriweather, "is he can change his mechanics in a split-second. You've got no room for mistakes. He thrives on your mistakes. The best way is to try to confuse him with different looks.''

After watching a lot of the Saints, Meriweather had especially high praise for Jeremy Shockey, who he figures to see a lot of tonight. As the heir to Rodney Harrison in the New England back end, Meriweather knows he has to be both physical and good in coverage against the versatile tight end. "Shockey's passion is so noticeable. He's a great receiving tight end who blocks well.''

I expect New England might play this game the way it played the first Super Bowl this decade against St. Louis. That day, Belichick put the word out to hit Marshall Faulk every time he moved. Someone else might beat the Pats, but not Faulk. Look, there's no right way to play such a multiple offense. You try to figure out the best way to stop the dam from bursting. My best guess is they'll try to stifle Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas and hope they can force Brees into a couple of turnovers. Belichick knows his side will put up points, particularly against a patchwork secondary that will struggle to contain Brady, Moss and Welker.

But I also think some pretty good defenses have had well-oiled plans for this offense this year. Philadelphia, the Giants and Miami entered their games with New Orleans confident that if they pressured Brees and put a stopper in the run game, they'd have a chance to force him into mistakes. The Saints put up 48 on Philly, 48 on the G-men, 46 on Miami. In other words, it sounds logical -- the same way so many teams thought they had the 2007 Patriots figured out. My pick: New Orleans 37, New England 33.

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Re: Peter King: Who I Like Tonight
 

Ironically, I see both teams using the same game plan to stop the other.

Re: Peter King: Who I Like Tonight
 

Not trying to be funny, but why would we attempt to stop their run? They don't have a run game

Re: Peter King: Who I Like Tonight
 

We seem to be having trouble stopping any running game effectively early on during our games this year, but then we make corrections / adjustments and control the ground game most of the time in the second half.

I think the Patriots will be able to run the ball enough to keep our defense trying to balance run support with covering Welker and Moss. I say don't let those two guys off the line free and clear, make them earn that downfield position tonight.

I hope Ellis is back AT 100%, I think that will make a big difference in how our boys play the run hence more pressure up the middle for Brady to deal with. He does not do well with pressure ........ :pokechop:

Re: Peter King: Who I Like Tonight
 

If I were Bilicheck I'd rather take my chances against the run rather than let Drew Brees pick apart the secondary. We had the #1 offense last year with out a running game. Tonight we might see Reggie Bush have a big game and make a difference.

Re: Peter King: Who I Like Tonight
 

true, kind of.
Brady uses the short (or very short) passing game instead of the run. Their RB's have almost 80 receptions