Sporting News - Packers vs. Saints - Preview - November, 24 2008
Both of these teams have the potential to go on a run and make the playoffs, but the loser of this game will be in big trouble. Both teams are 5-5 after inconsistent starts, and both have lost heartbreaking games in the final minutes. They need this Monday Night showdown to give them momentum going into the final stretch. The
Saints have yet to win two straight games all season, a trend they need to buck after a 30-20 victory at Kansas City. The Packers will hope their 37-3 thrashing of the Bears will carry over.
This game should be fun to watch, and both teams likely will throw for more than 300 yards. The
Saints have the league's top passing offense, led by quarterback Drew Brees, who is playing at an MVP level while threatening Dan Marino's NFL record for yards in a season. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent at times, but he has great weapons at his disposal in the passing game, especially Greg Jennings, and the
Saints' battered secondary is one of the most vulnerable units in the league.
Green Bay's Mike McCarthy and the
Saints' Sean Payton have been the two most successful coaches from the crowded class of 2006. They're two of the best up-and-coming young offensive minds in the game, and they both like to throw in some non-traditional wrinkles in their West Coast-style schemes. McCarthy used to work in New Orleans as the
Saints' offensive coordinator, and Payton interviewed for the Packers' job two years ago, so there are some interesting connections there.
Packers Keys For Success
1. Protect Aaron Rodgers: The line was great last week, but the week before it was horrible in the Metrodome. The Packers can't have Rodgers hurried because the key for the offense is to get the ball to its receivers and let them run through a depleted
Saints secondary. There's a good chance they'll go with five-receiver sets to try to get favorable match-ups and then stick with a short passing game. If Rodgers has a little time, he will have a better shot at exploiting them.
2. Get their hands up on the defensive line: The pass rush hasn't been as good as it was last season, but the front four has done a good job of deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage. Given Drew Brees' quick delivery, they might be better off having their inside guys shadow Brees and try to knock down his throws. Giving him a lot of time isn't ideal, but there will be opportunities to knock down passes.
3. Shadow Reggie Bush: Assuming Bush plays, the defense has to put two men on him almost every play to make sure he doesn't beat them. That probably means playing nickel defense much of the game and taking a chance that the
Saints won't run the ball a lot. A combination of linebacker Brandon Chillar and safety Nick Collins or Chillar and cornerback Charles Woodson would be able to shadow him. It wouldn't take that much away from the rest of the defense because the corners play man-to-man to begin with and are expected to cover their man without help.
Saints Keys For Success
1. Bend but don't break. The
Saints' secondary held up well enough against Kansas City, thanks to two goal-line stands. But the Packers offer a much stiffer test than the Chiefs did. New Orleans' top cornerback is veteran Randall Gay, who matches up best against slot receivers. But he's not a great fit against Green Bay's dynamic target Greg Jennings. No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks Jason David and Usama Young are both shaky. They have athleticism and natural playmaking instincts, but both have been inconsistent and tend to give up big plays. In this game they'll have to concentrate on keeping the ball in front of them and wrapping up after the catch.
2. Get pressure on Rodgers up front. New Orleans has been inconsistent in that area, as well, and it doesn't help that defensive end Charles Grant is out for the year with a triceps injury. But the
Saints still have decent rushers with ends Will Smith and Bobby McCray and rookie tackle Sedrick Ellis. And Rodgers does tend to hold onto the ball longer than some of the quarterbacks the
Saints have faced. The
Saints' front four has played well against teams like the 49ers, Raiders and Chiefs. But they've appeared to be nonexistent against more polished quarterbacks who get rid of the ball quickly. It will be interesting to see which category Rodgers falls into.
3. Get Reggie back. We won't know until late in the week whether Reggie Bush is ready to return to the
Saints' lineup after missing the last three games with a knee injury. They sure could use him. Bush is just as valuable to the
Saints' passing game as their running game, catching outlet passes and designed screen plays and swing passes out of the backfield. Most importantly, he adds a third dimension that defenses have to worry about. The Packers have an excellent secondary, but their linebackers don't match up well against a dynamic player like Bush, so just getting him on the field could create some problems for the Packers' scheme. Plus, Bush returned two punts for touchdowns against Minnesota the last time the
Saints hosted a Monday Night game in the Superdome. An effort like that wouldn't hurt.
The Bottom Line
Neither of these teams expected to wind up in this position this year, but it makes for compelling drama in late November. Both teams figure they can make up for some earlier losses with a big win on Monday night against a quality opponent. The only problem is that theory will only work for one of them. If the
Saints win, Drew Brees can get back in the MVP conversation. If Green Bay pulls it out, it will be a breakthrough moment for Aaron Rodgers. This one could go either way, but the deciding factor will probably be the secondaries. Green Bay has one of the best in the league, the
Saints one of the worst.
Scoring prediction: Packers 30 - Saints 27 
A look at the Packers' offense vs. the Saints' defense:
RUNNING GAME: The
Saints see the Falcons twice a year so they shouldn't have trouble playing against Green Bay's zone running game. The last three weeks, starter Ryan Grant has looked more like the guy he was a year ago. If the
Saints sell out to stop the pass and play a lot of Cover 2, Grant will probably get 25 carries. Head coach Mike McCarthy is very cognizant of how tough it was to throw indoors two weeks ago.
PASSING GAME: If this game were at Lambeau Field, McCarthy would be throwing 75 percent of the time. The
Saints don't have enough corners to stop the Packers' receivers and their only hope is to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. If the line protects, Rodgers should have a big day. Look for a lot of multi-receiver sets to spread out the defense and try to get some man-to-man matchups that favor the offense.
THE BLITZ: This could be one way the
Saints totally shut down the passing game. The have two capable blitzers in linebackers Jonathan Vilma and Scott Fujita and they may stack the line in an attempt to confuse Rodgers. Holding the ball too long has been a problem for Rodgers, and he must react quickly to the blitzes. The line can't lose one-on-one battles like it did against Minnesota.
IN THE RED ZONE: Look for more running inside the 20. Given the success Grant had last week, McCarthy likely will try to get favorable down and distances with the running game and then attack with his passing game. He'll probably try to work the perimeter more than the middle of the field because of the coverage ability of the
Saints' linebackers.
A look at the Saints' offense vs. the Packers' defense.
RUNNING GAME: The
Saints finally showed balance in their offense last week at Kansas City, running the ball 24 times for 106 yards with tailbacks Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister. Of course, a lot of that had to do with the Chiefs' 32nd-ranked run defense. But Green Bay's run defense hasn't been much better this year, ranking 27th in the NFL at 147 yards per game. The Packers have been getting inconsistent play from their defensive tackles and linebackers, which will give the
Saints an opening -- especially if tailback Reggie Bush comes back this week from a knee injury. Without Bush in the lineup, the
Saints have been rotating Deuce McAllister, Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker. McAllister is the most traditional power runner of the bunch, and he does a good job of churning ahead through a pile for an extra few yards. But Thomas emerged last week at Kansas City as a more dynamic threat, both running and receiving, and he'll likely get more looks against the Packers if the
Saints stick with the hot hand.
PASSING GAME: Quarterback Drew Brees is playing as well as any player in the league. He's on pace to break Dan Marino's NFL record for most passing yards in a season (5,084). Brees is throwing about 40 passes per game, win or lose, combining short, accurate passes and deep throws in a West Coast-style offensive system. He's very accurate, he reads defenses well and he does an excellent job of locating the open man in the progression without locking into specific targets. As a result, former backup receiver Lance Moore has turned into the go-to guy in this offense, catching six or seven passes almost every week. The
Saints have been waiting all year for No. 1 receiver Marques Colston and tight end Jeremy Shockey to get fully healthy and into a rhythm. They're getting closer. If Bush comes back, too, the
Saints have as deep and diverse a passing attack as any team in the league.
THE BLITZ: The Packers don't blitz much. They'll occasionally send a linebacker, but they prefer to flood the field with defenders and make quarterbacks throw through them. That's a smart plan against the
Saints because Brees does such a good job of avoiding sacks. He can quickly identify the hole in the defense and dump the ball off or throw it away when he's pressured. He has been the NFL's least-sacked quarterback since 2006. Bush is an especially effective blitz-buster, since he does most of his damage on swing passes and screen passes -- yet another reason why it will be important to get him back.
IN THE RED ZONE: This is where Colston usually excels, because he is a big target with great hands and range, who can usually shield smaller cornerbacks on fade routes. But he has been inconsistent since returning from thumb surgery last month, and he is still looking for his first touchdown catch of the season. Shockey, too, was supposed to be a red zone threat, but he also hasn't caught a TD pass while battling a sports hernia surgery all year. It hasn't mattered, though. Brees has been so on-target that the
Saints have continued to be effective in the red zone. He has thrown touchdown passes to eight different receivers this year. Bush is also a great asset in this area of the field because he can beat defenders around the corner on both running plays and short passes.
KEY MATCHUPS Saints WR Marques Colston vs. Packers CB Al Harris
Harris will be matched up against Colston, and it should be quite a physical battle. Harris hasn't given up a single completion since returning three weeks ago from a torn spleen. Colston is big and plays the fade well, which means Harris will have to keep bumping him at the line and making sure he doesn't get a good release. That is Harris' game, and it will be similar to his battles against former Detroit receiver Roy Williams.
Saints QB Drew Brees vs. Packers S Nick Collins
For Collins, this won't be like facing Gus Frerotte or Brian Griese. Brees knows how to look off safeties, deliver the ball quickly and not project his intentions. Collins has been excellent at reading quarterbacks this season and jumping routes that he recognizes from film study. Most quarterbacks underestimate his speed and figure he can't get to balls he ends up getting to. Collins has to be careful not to bite on run fakes and double moves.
Packers WR Greg Jennings vs. Saints CB Randall Gay
Jennings will be working the short areas and trying to get run-after-the-catch opportunities. That means a lot of slants and hitches. He may run a few deep routes to start out, but ultimately he's going to be looking to take Gay inside and across the field, making sure he forces him to cover all over the field. Gay has plenty of experience covering guys like Jennings and may try to rough him up at the line of scrimmage. It's likely Gay will get help over the top so he can play Jennings tighter to the line.
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Yep, another guaranteed nail-biting, beer-guzzling, heart-wrenching, slug-fest. Definitely need to spend some quality time with the 'ol liver for the beating it's about to receive.
Saints -2.5 O/U 51.5 
Saints / Packers - Preview and Predictions 
