FOUR-GONE CONCLUSION?
Even if Drew
Brees and the
Saints rebound to win the rest of their games, it might not be enough to secure a playoff berth Tuesday, December 02, 2008 By Brian Allee-Walsh Staff writer
After playing three months of .500 football, the
Saints enter the final month of the NFL season in pursuit of perfection.
That is, they likely will have to win all four remaining games just to stay in playoff contention based on the way the NFC playoff picture is developing. Even a 4-0 run and a 10-6 finish to the regular season might not be enough to get them into the postseason.
The
Saints (6-6) are last in the NFC South and will host the Atlanta Falcons (8-4) on Sunday at noon at the Superdome. The Falcons are No. 6 in the NFC playoff standings after beating San Diego 22-16 at Qualcomm Stadium this past Sunday.
"I think this is a year where I don't think you're going to see any nine-win teams in the NFC, aside from a division winner, in the postseason,"
Saints Coach Sean Payton said Monday, less than 24 hours after his team lost to the Buccaneers 23-20. "You could very well see a 10-win team left home.
"We have four weeks left . . . two home games left . . . and (we) certainly understand how everyone else is playing ahead of us, and that makes it much more challenging. We're never going to stop playing hard or not trying. I think we have good character in the locker room. We're going to have to play better. I think that's where it's at."
The
Saints' playoff chances perhaps hinge on the wing of quarterback Drew
Brees and the collective prayers of the Who Dat Nation, much like Sunday at rain-drenched Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., where the Buccaneers stayed in the driver's seat in the NFC South at 9-3.
The Buccaneers intercepted three passes (a fourth was nullified by a penalty) by
Brees and limited the
Saints to 44 yards rushing, just two more than Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia collected on seven scrambles.
Brees threw 47 times in the sloppy conditions, completing 25 for 296 yards and two touchdowns for his lowest passer rating (60.2) of the season.
The
Saints' final two possessions ended on interceptions, with the last one coming when cornerback Phillip Buchanon stepped in front of intended receiver Lance Moore at New Orleans' 40-yard line with 1:36 remaining.
Afterward,
Brees shouldered the blame for failing to capitalize on several scoring opportunities. But there was plenty of blame to go around.
Two costly mistakes came in the third quarter, resulting in one Tampa Bay touchdown and thwarting a
Saints' scoring opportunity. On Garcia's 39-yard scoring strike to a wide-open Antonio Bryant, cornerback Jason David and safety Josh Bullocks didn't do their jobs in four-deep zone coverage.
"If they execute the coverage, at worst it's an incompletion,"
Saints defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs said. "It's certainly not a wide-open touchdown."
On the ensuing drive,
Saints tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Buck Ortega failed to get the proper spacing on their vertical pass routes, enabling cornerback Ronde Barber to deflect a pass to teammate Cato June for an interception in the end zone.
Each blown assignment played a factor in the loss but didn't explain the discrepancy in the number of pass plays (47) to running plays (18). Running backs Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister combined on 17 carries for 47 yards. Wide receiver Devery Henderson was dropped for a 3-yard loss on an end around on fourth-and-1 at the Buccaneers' 30 in the first quarter.
"I was frustrated a little bit early with some of the minus plays that we took in the run game," Payton said. "At times this season when we've been able to effectively run the football, it's led to us winning football games, and when we haven't, it's led to us not winning football games. "We want to have balance. We're not taking the approach of just not running the football, but we have to do a better job of avoiding the minus plays and be more consistent when we do run it." Several players said they understand their weekly game plan revolves around Brees, but they would like the running game to become a bigger focal point of the offense. "That's an area where we have to do a better job," right tackle Jon Stinchcomb said. "I understand where our bread and butter is, that's the passing game. But we have to find a way to incorporate a run game that defenses respect." Bush said he was "surprised" by the number of pass plays called considering that the muddy and slippery conditions best suited the running game. "But we just run the plays that are called," Bush said. "I can't really dictate what should be called or what we should do. All we can do is run what's called. 
"It's not the fact that we can't run the ball. We have the guys here. But, at the end of the day, coaches are going to call what they want to call. We just got to make it happen. The coaches aren't on the field. We got to make the plays."
INJURY REPORT: Safety Kevin Kaesviharn is expected to miss one to two games after suffering a shoulder injury against the Buccaneers.
No other game-related injuries were reported.
. . . . . . .
Troubles mount as Payton passes on run
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
John DeShazier
Neither rain of Tampa, nor sleet of Chicago, nor gloom of missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season will keep
Saints Coach Sean Payton from making his appointed NFL rounds without a playbook that seems so geared toward flight it has feathers on the spine.
Payton, apparently, loves throwing the ball.
That's his storyline, and his offense is sticking to it. And if that means the
Saints don't win as much as they otherwise might -- if they bothered trying to run more than enough times to be able to say they tried to run -- then that seems to be acceptable collateral damage for a team that now needs to win its last four games of the regular season, and get a ton of help, to reach the playoffs.
And if that's not the case, then someone can enlighten with a better theory as to why Drew
Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yards, and to raise his team single-season record for passing yards for the third consecutive year, but the
Saints are on the verge of being out of the money for the postseason again and can't break free of the .500 mark, tumbling back to 6-6 after their 23-20 loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday.
While the Saints avoid the run at damaging cost, most other playoff contenders -- including all three ahead of them in the NFC South Division -- seem to embrace it. The evidence never was more damning than Sunday.
In a 35-31 victory on the road at Green Bay, Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams had 21 carries, and quarterback Jake Delhomme threw 17 times for Carolina (9-3). In a 22-16 victory at San Diego, Falcons running back Michael Turner took 31 handoffs, and quarterback Matt Ryan had 23 passes for Atlanta (8-4).
And against the
Saints, running back Warrick Dunn -- 5-foot-9, 187-pound, 33-year-old Warrick Dunn -- was entrusted with 22 carries on Tampa Bay's soggy field at Raymond James Stadium, and quarterback Jeff Garcia threw 23 times for the Buccaneers (9-3).
On Sunday, New Orleans ran 18 times -- in a three-point loss in which Tampa Bay was held to two third-down conversions in 15 attempts and the
Saints led 10-6 at halftime. And one of those runs was a reverse by receiver Devery Henderson.
New Orleans tried to run eight times in the first half, so eschew the notion that the game might have been out of hand and the run had to be abandoned.
Meanwhile,
Brees was credited with 47 passes, including nine on the first drive, which lasted 12 plays and ended on the ill-advised reverse on fourth-and-1 at Tampa Bay's 30-yard line. Henderson lost 3 yards on the play, and Payton said Monday he got frustrated early when several runs went for negative yards.
The remedy Sunday -- the remedy much more often than not for the
Saints when they don't run for 20 yards on the first two carries -- was to shy away from it.
Because that's what the Saints do under Payton.
That's not to say New Orleans absolutely has to run its offense the way everyone else does. Payton correctly has unwavering belief in
Brees, who arguably is the best quarterback in the league this season. Putting the ball in his hands isn't the worst strategy that could be used.
But what the other NFC South teams are doing is working better than what the
Saints are doing. All that pass-happiness has led to much stat-happiness, but not a bit of satisfaction in the standings.
Through 12 games, 62 percent (472 throws and 10 sacks) of the Saints' 777 offensive plays have been pass attempts. Last season, when the Saints finished 7-9, 63 percent (652 throws and 16 sacks) of the 1,060 offensive plays were pass attempts.
In 2006, when New Orleans won the division title and reached the NFC championship game, 56 percent (580 throws and 23 sacks) of the 1,075 offensive plays were pass attempts.
In the divisional playoff victory over Philadelphia at the Superdome, the Saints rushed 37 times and passed 32. In the conference championship loss at Chicago -- in the sleet, snow and freezing cold of Soldier Field against the Bears -- Payton's Saints came out firing darts and never stopped, the offense throwing 49 passes and running the ball 12 times.
The numbers say the closer the balance has been to 50-50 under Payton, the better the
Saints have been.
And they say that when he says he wants to run the ball more, it's not much more than lip service. If the Buccaneers can find 22 carries for Dunn in a tight game, the
Saints ought to be able to manage more than that as a team, ought to be able to emerge with something a little more reasonable than trying to throw the ball on 73 percent of the offensive plays.
That crosses the line of dedication to a system and a belief and ventures into the territory of rigidity and stubbornness, and it's no wonder the
Saints continue to be average (this season) or just below (last season).
Sure, there have been occasions the past two seasons when the
Saints fell behind so far and so fast, dumping the running game was necessary. The quickest way to attempt to come back was through the air.
But all imbalance can't be attributed to deficit. A good portion can be credited to a coach who seems hell-bent on throwing the football regardless of time, score, weather, personnel or opposition.
Sometimes, like the Vikings did in their "Monday Night Football" victory against the
Saints at the Superdome, when Adrian Peterson had 21 carries for 32 yards, a team runs to let the other team know that its identity and intent is to muscle up and dictate, regardless of how many defenders are in the box. It's to let opponents know they're going to have to respect that aspect of the game.
Not so, the
Saints.
Neither rain, nor sleet, nor gloom of missing the playoffs will keep them from making their appointed NFL rounds without a pass-happy playbook.
It's the only thing that has been happy about the past two seasons.
. . . . . . .
Saints receiving little on DE investments Tuesday, December 02, 2008 Jeff Duncan
We should know the fate of
Saints defensive end Will Smith and running back Deuce McAllister sometime today in their fight to avoid four-game suspensions for allegedly violating the NFL's drug policy.
That's when the league is expected to announce its decision on "StarCaps-gate."
If Smith is suspended, it will be only the latest major blow to the
Saints' injury/suspension-riddled defense this season.
The
Saints will have to fight for their playoff lives without their two starting cornerbacks and two starting defensive ends, as Smith will likely join fellow defensive end Charles Grant and corners Mike McKenzie and Tracy Porter on the sideline for the rest of the season.
Regardless of how the league rules, this much is clear when it comes to Smith and Grant: Of all the disappointments in this disappointing Saints season, none rank higher than the play of the team's bookend ends, who are the highest-paid defenders on the roster.
Grant, who was placed on injured reserve in Week 9, and Smith were expected to be the cornerstones of a rebuilt, resurgent defense, polar powers on one of the most talented defensive lines in the league.
Instead, they've been the lightning rods of criticism for a frustrated fan base that has again seen its preseason Super Bowl hopes dashed by a harsh dose of in-season reality.
Together, they've combined for six sacks, one forced fumble and one pass break-up in 20 starts. That wasn't what the
Saints had in mind when they invested more than $120 million in the pair during the past year-and-a-half.
This past summer, Grant predicted he and Smith would elevate the
Saints to the "top three defensive lines in the NFL" this season.
"If we don't, we've disappointed ourselves, starting with me and Will," he added. "If we don't get in the top three, it's on me and Will, nobody else but me and Will."
But Grant and Smith's numbers are more comparable to the bottom three lines than the top three.
Just look around:
-- The Indianapolis duo of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for 17 sacks, eight forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries this season.
-- Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka have produced 18 sacks, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and an interception for the Giants.
-- John Abraham, who is being paid similar money to Grant and Smith by Atlanta, has twice as many sacks as the pair by himself (12.5) and has forced three fumbles to boot.
-- Jared Allen had three sacks and eight tackles, including three for losses, for Minnesota against the Bears on Sunday night alone.
When was the last time either Grant or Smith had a game like that?
To be fair, injuries have contributed to the pair's woes.
A torn triceps muscle ended Grant's season, and Smith has played for most of the year with an unreported abdominal/groin strain that has been kept quiet for what I can only assume are strategic reasons.
Still, in a league based on production, their production is clearly subpar for starting ends of their experience and track record, much less ones that are being paid among the best in the business.
After all, Grant is in the second year of a seven-year, $63 million deal, and Smith is in the first year of a seven-year, $64.5 million he signed in June.
Saints officials have cited Grant's and Smith's number of quarterback hurries as evidence of their quietly productive play. Of the NFL's myriad statistics, few are more arbitrary or misleading than the "quarterback hurry." It's one thing to hurry a quarterback into a frantic incompletion (See: Abraham vs. Drew Brees, Nov. 9). It's quite another to arrive just after he releases the pass for a big completion. Technically, Smith "hurried" Jeff Garcia on his 39-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Bryant on Sunday. (( ouch!))
Smith and Grant aren't being paid to hurry the quarterback. They're being paid to sack him, to knock down his passes, to beat him up and force turnovers. Neither has done that nearly enough this season.
And now it's possible neither will be available down the stretch.
The
Saints have grown accustomed to replacing pivotal defenders this season, but losing Smith could hurt. His experience, leadership and warrior attitude won't be easy to replace.
While Bobby McCray (six sacks) has proved to be a more-than-adequate replacement for Grant -- Six sacks? Can you say Wally Pipp? -- the Saints don't have anyone of that caliber in the flanks should they have to replace Smith.
Jeff Charleston and Josh Savage are high-motor guys who have flashed potential in cameo roles, but neither was exactly a hot commodity when the
Saints signed them off the street earlier this year.
Now it's possible one will start and the other will be the third end for the
Saints the rest of the way.
That might sound scary to
Saints fans, but face it, Charleston and Savage can't be much less productive than Grant and Smith have been this season.
Three good articles. 
