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this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Here's the basics. See the entire list of prop bets here: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Super Bowl XLIV Prop Bet Extravaganza! The Basics Indianapolis Colts (-6) Tom: The movement of this line, after it opened at 3.5 ...

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Old 02-04-2010, 07:36 AM   #1
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Bets, bets, and more bets!

Here's the basics.


See the entire list of prop bets here:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Super Bowl XLIV Prop Bet Extravaganza!


The Basics

Indianapolis Colts (-6)

Tom: The movement of this line, after it opened at 3.5 to 4, worries me, as does New Orleans' mediocre performance during the NFC Championship. Indianapolis isn't bad, but their defensive line, especially with a limited Freeney, isn't nearly as good defensively. I think the Colts will win, but I'm not confident enough to lay six points against a team that's still good. Give me New Orleans.

Mike: While Freeney may be playing in a limited capacity, Indianapolis is still stocked up and down with speed on defense, which is problematic for the finesse protection game that Sean Payton plays. Plus, New Orleans looked decidedly mediocre in the championship game, coming a few boneheaded decisions from losing in a game where they were handed the ball I think eight times by their opponent. Indianapolis.

Over/Under (56.5)

Mike: Indianapolis likes long, sustained drives, and has a questionable run defense. Both quarterbacks have the potential to be explosive, but they are also the keys to their respective teams' game plans. Both defenses are going to be teeing off on the opposing quarterback, which means a lot of checkdowns and throws underneath, or into short zones. That should leave us way under the line.

Tom: This seems like a very big number, up there with the Cardinals-Saints game. The last Super Bowl to hit this total was New England-Carolina. Both teams are good offensively, but Indianapolis tends to play short games in terms of number of possessions. It seems counter-intuitive, but give me the under.

New Orleans Saints Total Team Points (25.5)

Tom: If I'm picking a score, I'll match last year's score of AFC 27, NFC 23. That makes this an under.

Mike: That methodology makes little to no sense. On the off chance that things do explode, however, I can see New Orleans putting up 28 points on Indy's defense. Counter-intuitive, but I'm going with the over.
Indianapolis Colts Total Team Points (31.5)

Mike: On the other hand, even though it's consistent with the spread, I'm not going to hang my hat on 32 points against Gregg Williams in the Super Bowl. It may be counter-intuitive, but I'll take the under.

Tom: This is an under as well.

MVP Odds:

Peyton Manning (IND) 2/3 xxx Robert Meachem (NO) 25/1
Drew Brees (NO) 9/4 Darren Sharper (NO) 28/1
Pierre Thomas (NO) 10/1 Dwight Freeney (IND) 30/1
Reggie Bush (NO) 10/1 Robert Mathis (IND) 40/1
Joseph Addai (IND) 10/1 Jonathan Vilma (NO) 40/1
Reggie Wayne (IND) 10/1 Will Smith (NO) 50/1
Dallas Clark (IND) 12/1 Lance Moore (NO) 50/1
Marques Colston (NO) 12/1 David Thomas (NO) 50/1
Pierre Garcon (IND) 14/1 Antoine Bethea (IND) 50/1
Mike Bell (NO) 20/1 Gary Brackett (IND) 50/1
Devery Henderson (NO) 20/1 Clint Session (IND) 50/1
Jeremy Shockey (NO) 20/1 Garrett Hartley (NO) 75/1
Austin Collie (IND) 20/1 Matt Stover (IND) 75/1
Donald Brown (IND) 25/1

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Old 02-04-2010, 11:32 AM   #2
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Re: Bets, bets, and more bets!

The thing is... they can't factor in mojo and voudou.
There is no equation for pants on the grounditis.

Sharperology isn't factored in either. Harper too. Greer, Porter, Gay
are all going to be head hunting like never before. Looktf out.

A lot of people are going to lose money Sunday.

Saints will not only cover the spread they will win outright.

This will be like the Patriots game. The NFC stacks up quite nicely, thanks.

Just Say Neaux To Dolts.
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