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QB Passer Rating?

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I was just reading something on the QB Raing System and I think it is flawed. But then I had to ask myself what would be a better way to rate a QB. Here are some observations. Current Passer Rating ...

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Old 10-22-2003, 07:58 PM   #1
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QB Passer Rating?

I was just reading something on the QB Raing System and I think it is flawed. But then I had to ask myself what would be a better way to rate a QB. Here are some observations.

Current Passer Rating System -- Takes the following into consideration:

1. Passes thrown
2. Passes completed
3. Touchdowns
4. Interceptions

There's more to it but basically that's it. But, it doesn't take into account well thrown passes that should have been caught. Or, passes that were thrown away to avoid sacks. Or, runs by a QB for positive yardage, which keeps drives alive. It also counts YAC which inflates QB's numbers that just dink and dunk the ball down the field. This reflects the receivers ability more than the QB.

Here are the changes I would make --

1. Rushing yards by the QB counts on passing yardage.
2. QB's only get's passing yardage for the distance the ball travels in the air.
3. All well thrown balls that are dropped get counted as catches or there is a seperate stat for dropped passes that is factored in.
4. Balls thown away to avoid sacks do not count as incomplete passes.

Any thoughts?
BillyCarpenter1 is offline  
Old 10-22-2003, 08:40 PM   #2
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QB Passer Rating?

I think YAC have to be counted, at least partially, because a QB who hits the receiver in stride consistently will help the receiver get more YAC. Kurt Warner used to be the best at that and it definitely helped his team win as well as helping his stats. Maybe you could count only the first 10 YAC and then cut it off.

I don\'t think you can count well-thrown balls that are dropped. Who is to say whether the ball was well-thrown or not? Maybe it was thrown on target but too hard (as some people have accused AB of doing on short passes), or maybe it hit the receiver on the numbers when it really should have been placed to the side away from the defender (or to hit the receiver in stride). I think for dropped passes, you just have to assume that in the long run (the only case where stats mean much anyway) each QB will have about the same number of good passes dropped.

As for passes thrown away, if you want to subtract those from the tally of incomplete passes, you would have to be sure that there was no receiver open downfield that the QB could have completed a pass to. In a lot of cases (though not every case), it would be too hard to tell if the throw-away was the right decision or not.

One thing I would add to the list would be fumbles.

I would also try to take into account the quality of the rest of the team and the defensive opponents. For example, supposing AB and Delhomme (just to name a couple of QB\'s )have exactly the same skills (and I think we all agree they DON\'T), you would expect AB to have a better rating because he plays in a more pass-oriented offense and has better receivers. Thus a comparison of QB ratings between the two is not really a fair comparison of their individual ability.

Disclaimer:
Even if you found the perfect way to quantify the passing effectiveness of a QB, you still haven\'t begun to take into account all the other aspects of a QB\'s performance (leadership and audible-calling are the first two that come to mind). That\'s one reason why the QB rating can never be more than the fourth-best way (that I can think of off-hand) to identify who are the better QB\'s in the league (the best being personal experience as a player or coach, the second best being watching a few games from the stands or watching film, and the third best watching the game on TV).

QB rating is more useful to identify the success of the team passing than to identify the ability of the QB himself.

Just my $0.02.

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Old 10-22-2003, 11:52 PM   #3
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QB Passer Rating?

There\'s more to it but basically that\'s it. But, it doesn\'t take into account well thrown passes that should have been caught. Or, passes that were thrown away to avoid sacks. Or, runs by a QB for positive yardage, which keeps drives alive. It also counts YAC which inflates QB\'s numbers that just dink and dunk the ball down the field. It also counts YAC which inflates QB\'s numbers that just dink and dunk the ball down the field.
Here are the changes I would make --

1. Rushing yards by the QB counts on passing yardage.
2. QB\'s only get\'s passing yardage for the distance the ball travels in the air.
3. All well thrown balls that are dropped get counted as catches or there is a seperate stat for dropped passes that is factored in.
4. Balls thown away to avoid sacks do not count as incomplete passes.

Any thoughts?

1.But, it doesn\'t take into account well thrown passes that should have been caught.
a. In some ways it does , a quarterback that continues to throw passes to a receiver who drops them should have it show on his stat sheet .
b. Quarterbacks and receiver work on drills together til the quarterback knows the receivers hands , if a receiver has hard hands you only throw soft passes .

2.Or, passes that were thrown away to avoid sacks.
a. does not allow for the quarterback who misreads coverages either .
b. Or the fact he took too long in the pocket , elapsing the standard play protection time .

3.It also counts YAC which inflates QB\'s numbers that just dink and dunk the ball down the field.
a. If a quarterback throws the ball with a safety drooling at the thought of laying the receiver out then it shows with no Y.A.C. and if the quarterback finds the receiver when he is in an open zone , then it shows as Y.A.C.

It also counts YAC which inflates QB\'s numbers that just dink and dunk the ball down the field.
a. So a quarterback should be penalized for finding the receiver open in the zone , thus allowing more yardage on the play ????
b. Is it better in this system to throw to covered receivers ????

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Old 10-23-2003, 07:43 AM   #4
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QB Passer Rating?

Well there maybe things wrong with the rating but the smart one know that you can\'t just judge a qb on his rating alone. Its a team sport... everyone on the field and coached account for the QB rating. What play/what routes, line protecting -i.e. why the qb got sacked or thrown the pass away, WR not running routes right or away from portection. Hell line not protecting or wr not getting open can account for the amout of rushing yards your qb gets. The rating is desgined to be a passing stat to take into account not the sole reason to judge your qb.
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Old 10-23-2003, 12:10 PM   #5
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QB Passer Rating?

If you are interested in football you know the flaws of the QB rating and take the number with a grain of salt. It should be called passer rating, but otherwise I wouldn\'t change too much.
Possible changes:
1. Take away the limitations on the four statistical numbers. I don\'t see how that helps a fair assessment of a passer.
2. Give more importance to the yards per attempt statistic. The current system punishes players who like to throw long and makes QBs in a true West Coast offense look very good. Either that or lower the importance of completion percentage (I prefer the first version though).

YAC have to stay, rushings yards and fumbles have to be left out - it is a passer rating and always was, just a confusing name -, don\'t add a subjective stat like dropped passes to the equation, don\'t add the thrown away balls to avoid sacks (as saintz08 said, might have been his own fault).

I wouldn\'t even try to get my changes worked into the rating because it makes comparisions more difficult (hard enough to compare rushers from the 14-game era with the 16-game era). Just leave it as it is and don\'t pay more attention to it than to the 40-yard times at the scouting combine. Ask Steve Young what his league record rating was, I doubt he would be able to tell you.

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