Even though they're winning the New Orleans Saints can't catch Atlanta
 

Neither of those scenarios is unrealistic. Although the Falcons opened as 6½-point favorites in Las Vegas, this will be their third consecutive road game, and it's never easy for a team to travel across three time zones from one corner of the country to the other. Plus, Seattle is widely considered among the toughest places for visiting teams to play in the NFL.
As for the Saints, they've proven in the past that they can handle the underdog role just fine -- even though they haven't been in this situation since they beat both the odds and the Indianapolis Colts to win Super Bowl XLIV.
The Ravens (9-4) opened as 2½-point favorites Monday, before they played at the Houston Texans.

"This is a perfect situation for us. We like being the underdog, " Saints safety Darren Sharper said -- speaking both of Sunday's game and the way they've been hiding in the shadows for most of this season after struggling to a 4-3 start. "Hopefully we can continue to be the underdog. I think the way things are playing out, we might be. Having to go on the road is definitely going to put us as the underdog, and that's a situation we like and we kind of relish."
Coach Sean Payton used the point spread as a motivational tool before the Super Bowl, posting the odds on a grease board every day.
"His famous quote was, 'There's no better situation than to be the underdog and have the better team, '" Sharper recalled.
But Payton insisted that he won't be using the "underdog" tag for motivation this week.

He said point spreads aren't as big of a deal in this "fantasy football" age as they used to be, when the betting lines were routinely dissected during NFL pregame shows.

"Maybe there are games where you are more aware of that, " Payton said. "We know that we are playing a good team, a team that is playing with a lot of the same things at stake as we are. That's what we pay attention to."
Ever since the schedule was released in the spring, this December trip to Baltimore loomed as the toughest date on the Saints' schedule.
For one, the Ravens are one of the most complete teams in the NFL, with a punishing defense and a balanced offense. Although veterans such as linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed are no longer in their prime, they are still among the best in the league.

"We have a lot of respect for Baltimore, " Payton said. "Clearly they are one of those teams that have been an elite AFC team, a team that plays extremely physical on defense. Offensively, they have the ability to run and throw. It's a real good challenge for us."

The weather conditions also could challenge the Saints, though the forecast is relatively mild for Baltimore in mid-December. The early forecast calls for a high of 35 degrees with a chance of light snow showers -- very similar to what the Saints faced during their 34-30 victory at Cincinnati on Dec. 5.

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Even though they're winning the New Orleans Saints can't catch Atlanta | NOLA.com

Isn't the second tie breaker conference record? So if we both lose this week, then we win out, won't we be tied at 12-4 but they would have 3 NFC losses to our 2? Am I wrong, or did that writer forget Seattle's in the NFC now?

1. Head-to-head
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.


We've lost to Cards and Browns, they beat both teams. We beat Pitt, who they lost to. So we lose the Common Games tiebreaker 2-1.

But, if they lose to Seattle that means the Common Games tiebreaker is 2-2 since we beat Seattle. It then goes to Conference Games, which we win.

Lets hope that happens Guido

That implies Saints and Falcons finishing with the same record so lets run that through to its conclusion
Week 15 SEA Beats Falcons. Falcons 11 -3
Saints beat Ravens Saints 11-3

Falcons play Saints Week 16 one team is 12-3 one team is 11-4
If Saints win Week 16 they have to lose to Tampa and Carolina loses to Atlanta for both to finish 12-4
Falcons own that tiebreaker and win the division

or Saints beat Ravens, lose to Falcons and beat Bucs finish 12-4
Falcons lose to Seattle beat Saints and lose to Carolina finish 12-4
Falcons own head to head.

or

Week 15 SEA Beats Falcons. Falcons 11 -3
Saints lose to Ravens Ravens Saints 10-4

Falcons play Saints Week 16 Saints win Both teams 11-4
Both teams win week 17 and finish 12-4
Atlanta owns the common games tiebreaker because they beat the Ravens

or Both Lose week 17 and finish 11-5
Atlanta owns the tiebreakers.


The Saints have to finish with a better record than the Falcons to win the division in all scenarios.

Its pretty simple. Three games left. Saints have to win them all and Falcons have to lose 2 of 3 for the Saints to win the division.

The Saints could still lose to the Ravens and win the South if they beat Atlanta and thenAtlanta loses to Carolina, which isn't very likely.

The Saints have to finish with a better record than the Falcons to win the division in all scenarios.

Its pretty simple. Three games left. Saints have to win them all and Falcons have to lose 2 of 3 for the Saints to win the division.[/QUOTE]


Saints could also win the division if they win out and Atlanta wins 2 and ties 1. Unlikely, but as long as we are doing scenarios...

The 13-3 scenario works best for me, home field or not. We match our regular season record from last year (great accomplishment given the Superbowl slump and all) and go into the post season on a long winning streak with a fresh win over the Falcons who we may have to crush again on our way to Dallas.

All of this is confusing the FK out of me and we have gone through this a few times in different threads.

Lets face it.... No one is loosing to Carolina this year.

There are only two ways out of this Wild Card Spot

1 We loose the last 3 games. Bull Sh1t!

2 Seattle beats Atlanta and We Beat Atlanta...

WE DO NOT CONTROL OUR OWN DESTINY IN REGARDS TO NFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS.
NFC Playoff Picture

If Seattle does not beat Atlanta we are a Wild Card Team.

Remember the BROWNS! :doh:

Lets not worry about where who finishes where here. Lets just go win out the rest of these games. Hope for the best from the football Gods. We seem to be peaking at the right time here. Kinda reminds me of some of the 49'er teams from years past here. So lets go out run the table and continue through the playoff's we showed that we can win the big games. It's those teams that we should beat that always bites us in the butt. Couple less turnovers and a made field goal against The dirty birds and we would be in the drivers seat here. GEAUX SAINTS can you say TWODAT for the WHODAT...

Not true.

If Atlanta loses to us and Carolina, then the tie-breaker is no longer common opponents but division record, where we'd be 5-1 and Atlanta would be 4-2.

We can still win the division even if we finish with the same record as Atlanta (if we lose to the Ravens and then win out)

Saints 12-4, (5-1 division)
Falcons 12-4 (4-2 division)

Only thing Carolina is going to win is Cam in the draft. I was hoping they would come around and give the Falcons an uppercut but that team is on cruise control. The QB and Coach are gone next season if there is one.

You Guys need to worry about the Ravens..............just sayin!

Good point, there's certainly no one else on our schedule to worry about.........;)

Book 'em Danno.

You keep thinking that!....;)

We take care of our business, and let the chips fall where they may. It's not unheard of, for a wild card to get to the superbowl, that's for sure.

Go Carolina.

No we don't. We aren't on the team.

I'm spending all week overlooking the Ravens and looking forward to the Falcons

You are, of course, correct.

And you Atlanta fans keep flying the flag that you Beat the Saints in our house. That is weak!

You beat us in our house with out us having Bush, Sharper... an injured Thomas, and a banged up Shocky. With a little SB Hangover to boot. In over time by 3 points.

I hardly call that a decisive win.. Although it was a win for ATL.

Turn the tables. If we beat you in OT by 3 and you were with out Turner, a banged up Gonzalez, and another few key players hurt... I would not be running around proclaiming we crushed you.

All BS aside, when we play you again, you have to agree that you are not facing the same team you played in week 3.

We don't need to catch Atlanta.

Just keep winning and we'll get our shot!!

Atlanta is paper tigers, man...

Playoff machine @ espn.com.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

No, the Saints need to worry about the Ravens, I need to worry about whatever I feel like worrying about.

Yeah, if Seattle doesn't beat the falcons we're gonna be a WC. I"ll be at the sports bar on sunday to watch us beat the Ravens and will be sticking around for the atl game to see how seattle is doing, if they lay an egg and atl is up big early, I'm going home.