10-6 Saints in Playoffs, closer & closer
 

PHL, GB, STL, and CAR probably win their divisions, so we have to worry about
Dallas, Minnesota, and Seattle
Assuming we can win out

Dallas (8-4) has @PHL,@WAS,NYG,@NO
I can see them losing 1 before playing us, and with a loss to us they stay home.

Seattle (8-4) has @MIN,@STL,AZ,@SF
I can see them losing 3 also for a 9-7 record. AZ is a trap game.

Minn (7-5) has SEA,@CHI,KC,@AZ
I can see them self-destruct and lose 2 for a 9-7 record. At CHI is a trap.
Either Minn or Seattle clinches one WC spot. I'm pulling for Seattle. I hear we have the tie-breaker with Minnesota due to NFC record.
DALLAS MUST LOSE ONE MORE BEFORE THEY PLAY US!!!!

A 10-6 Saints team is LIKELY to get in. I'd say chances are now 80-20.
I'd also say the odds of us going 4-0 is about 60-40.
A 9-7 Saints team depends on way too many unlikely scenarios to get in. 20-80

10-6 Saints in Playoffs, closer & closer
 

Not exactly. You\'re saying Green Bay will win the division. They can\'t be better than 10-6. So Minnesota can\'t be better than 10-6 - obviously. Not quite so obvious: Minnesota actually can\'t be 10-6, because they own the tie-breaker against Green Bay, regardless of what game they lose (division record if they lose against Seattle, Kansas City or Arizona; conference record if they lose in Chicago).
So, if Green Bay wins the NFC North, Minnesota will be 9-7 at best. If Minnesota wins the division (at 11-5 or 10-6) Green Bay will be 10-6 at best - obviously, they are 6-6 now. We own the tie-breaker against Green Bay (conference record) if we win out.

10-6 Saints in Playoffs, closer & closer
 

Your right, it was GB that we own the T-B over.
But like you said, whoever doesn\'t win that division will probably be 9-7 anyway.