It's no secret that I've been in favor of dumping Haslett since last season. Yes, yes, I know that it isn't going to happen, but I thought I would see if my logic that if a coach doesn't do it in his first three to four years, he probably won't ever do it reasoning held any water.
Going through all the NFL records forever would just be too time consuming. What I did do was take a look at the coaches from the teams in the playoffs this year. Of the 12 coaches to lead their teams to the playoffs this year, only Jeff Fisher didn't make the playoffs in his first four season. OK, sure Haslett made the playoffs in his first four years. Of course, Fisher's team never regressed in those first four years (their record was never worse than the year before) and have been pretty successful since.
Holmgren at Seattle is the only guy who has numbers similar to Haslett's. Again, he may get a little bit of a pass b/c he did take GB to 2 Super Bowls and the playoffs in 6 of his 7 years there. Anyway, here's the list.
Baltimore - 6-10.
Enter Billick. Year 1, 8-8. Year 2, 12-4 Won Super Bowl. Year 3, 10-6 went to playoffs. Year 4, 7-9 - were in the race for the playoffs until last week of the season (they got in this year by the way at 9-7). 42-27 record, 2 playoff appearences, 1 Super Bowl in 1st 4 years.
New England - 8-8.
Enter Belichick. Year 1, 5-11. Year 2, 11-5 Won Super Bowl. Year 3, 9-7. Year 4, 14-2?, number 1 cede in playoffs. 43?-25 record, 2 playoff appearences, 1 Super Bowl in first 4 years.
Denver - 7-9.
Enter Shanahan. Year 1, 8-8. Year 2, 13-3 won division title. Year 3, 12-4 Won Super Bowl. Year 4, 14-2 Won Super Bowl. 47-17 regular season record, 3 playoff appearences, 2 Super Bowls in first 4 years.
Kansas City - 7-9.
Enter Vermeil. Year 1, 6-10. Year 2, 8-8. Year 3, 13-3 playoffs, number 2 cede in the AFC. Of course, Vermeil did also win a Super Bowl in his third year at St Louis.
Indianapolis - 6-10.
Enter Dungy. Year 1, 10-6, playoffs. Year 2, 12-4, playoffs, one playoff win.
Tenessee - 2-14.
Enter Jeff Fisher. Here's your one exception Billy. He was 1 game under .500 in his first four years. Since then, 13-3 Super Bowl, 13-3 Division Champ, 7-9, 11-5 playoffs, 12-4 playoffs.
Dallas - 5-11.
Enter Parcells. Year 1, 10-6 playoffs. Of course, in his last three jobs - he took the 1-15 Jets and made them 9-7 in year 1, and 12-4 in their second - went to the AFC championship game. At New England he made a 5-11 team a 10-6 team in his first year and took them to the Super Bowl in his third year. At NYG - 3-12, 9-7 Wildcard, 10-6 Wildcard, 14-2 Won Super Bowl, 6-9, 10-6, 12-4 Division Title, 13-3 WOn Super Bowl.
Philly - 3-13.
Enter Andy Reid. Year 1, 5-11. Year 2, 11-5 Wildcard. Year 3, 11-5 Division Champ. Year 4, 12-4 went to NFC Championship. Regular season 39-25, three playoff appearence.
Green Bay - 9-7.
Enter Mike Sherman. Year 1, 12-4 Wildcard. Year 2, 12-4 Division Title. Year 3, 10-6 Won Division. 36-16 in first three years including playoffs.
Seattle - 8-8.
Enter Holmgren. Year 1, 9-7 division title. Year 2, 6-10. Year 3, 9-7. Year 4, 7-9. Most like Haslett's numbers and the Seahawks did make the playoffs in their fifth year. Of course, prior to coming to Seattle Holmgren was 75-37 regular season, made the playoffs in 6 of his 7 years, two Super Bowls, and won one.
St Louis - 13-3.
Vermeil leaves after a SB. Enter Martz. Year 1, 10-6 Wild Card (lost to Saints hehehe), Year 2, 14-2 went to Super Bowl, Year 3, 7-9, Year 4 12-4 Division Title and first round bye.
Carolina - 1-15.
Enter John Fox. Year 1 7-9. Year 2, 11-5 Division Title, in NFC Championship already.
So, I guess that Fisher gives us some hope, but this doesn't exactly make me feel good about Haslett. Like Billy said, I'll hope the guy picks it up, but I doubt he will. I've thought Holmgren should at least be on the hotseat in Seattle the last two years or so, and so I don't feel bad about putting Haslett in the same boat. Both teams should cut ties if you ask me. Either way, I'd say next year is make or break for both.
One other thing... anyone care to comment on Delhomme? Billy? Billy? ;) (2nd Best QB rating in the league when his team is trailing. 7 comeback wins, 4-1 in OT, and in the NFC Championship - will probably be in the Super Bowl (they look a whole lot like Baltimore of a few years ago to me).
That\'s a good post WhoDat. Somehow, I overlooked it. At this point, I feel the same way as you on the coaches. I understand that many factors are involved in a coach being successful, but, I can point specifically at coaching for a lot of the Saints problems.
So, for now, we see eye-to-eye on the coaching. That\'s scary ain\'t it?? I figure if we both agree on something.............It\'s gotta have some truth to it. :D
As far as Delhomme..... He\'s impressed me to a certain degree. But, it wouldn\'t surprise me if he had a bad year next season and the Panthers missed the playoffs. He\'s in a great situation for a young experienced QB. Also, he\'s not in a passing offense that goes down field very often. I don\'t think he would have thrived in the Saints offense. He certainly would have had to run around more and get rid of the ball quicker with the Saints.
[Edited on 12/1/2004 by BillyC]
Why hasn\'t the universe as we know it ceased to exist? Billy and I wholeheartedly agree. What\'s going on here? :)
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