Go Back   New Orleans Saints Forums - blackandgold.com > Main > Saints

The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; New Orleans at San Francisco When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and ...

Like Tree4Likes
  • 3 Post By Tobias-Reiper
  • 1 Post By AlaskaSaints

Closed Thread
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-14-2012, 10:30 AM   #1
xan
Professor Crab and
Site Donor 2014
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Princeton
Posts: 3,355
Blog Entries: 34
The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF

New Orleans at San Francisco

When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and an elite defense?" I didn't think this happened all that often, but when I searched our database, I found a whopping 85 playoff games since 1992 with a top-eight offense going against a top-eight defense. In those games, the elite offense went 45-40. Of course, New Orleans will be on the road this Saturday, so what about that subset of games? The elite offense went 15-21 on the road. Now, better teams according to DVOA usually end up having a divisional round home game, so that record might just be a statistical artifact of home field advantage. So what about the subset of games where the elite offense is on the road but is actually the better team overall? In those 15 games, the elite offense went 8-7. All of this suggests that, in playoff matchups between immovable objects and irresistible forces, neither side has a historical advantage.

For more, click on this link:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFC Divisional Round Preview

Of special note:

Nevertheless, the Saints' pass defense is so bad that San Francisco can still be successful even if it's with a more conventional scheme. One thing we're likely to see based on the statistical matchups is a heavy dose of Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn. That's because the Saints rank 27th in pass defense against slot receivers, they rank 30th in passes to the short-left portion of the field, and right cornerback Tracy Porter is by far the Saints' worst cornerback (30 percent pass Success Rate) according to our numbers. Before his concussion in Week 16, Williams in particular had been coming on as a viable No. 2 receiving option from the slot, ending the season ranked eighth in DVOA among wide receivers with less than 50 targets. Therefore, he'll likely be the main beneficiary.
I will bet his performance this season is somewhat due to his lingering knee issues. Watch for a steady diet of Crabtree rotated to his side and Smith running either wr screens or double moves, either of which completely flummoxed Porter all season. Porter better man up today, or it will be a painful afternoon for all of us.

Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger."
Hobbes: "Common lament."
xan is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 10:48 AM   #2
Site Donor
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bayou Bayfield CO
Posts: 4,722
C'mon Xan, relax. Remember, stats are for baseball. Enjoy the game.
Seer1 is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:10 AM   #3
Site Donor 2014
Truth Addict
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R)
Posts: 24,635
Our CB's were toasted all season because we couldn't apply pressure with the front 4.

I think Porter was the primary victim of a weak front 4.
Danno is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:14 AM   #4
100th Post
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 191
I think you're getting too caught up in stats.your forgetting this 9er offense is the worst we've played in a while (statistically).
whodat4life is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:25 AM   #5
Site Donor
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bayou Bayfield CO
Posts: 4,722
As our line's most likely gonna be pretty much the same next year, I'm gonna point my finger more at the rushing schemes developed for them. If you're blitz happy, it takes a lot of pressure/accountability off of the front four. A lot of folks don't play up to snuff if they're not being pushed into it. Plus the lineman's role becomes more the eating up blockers kind of thing than actually creaming the guy with the ball. I don't really think getting to the quarterback is as important in this scheme as just causing enough pressure to cause the ball to be thrown to one of our formerly rock handed DB's.


Originally Posted by Danno View Post
Our CB's were toasted all season because we couldn't apply pressure with the front 4.

I think Porter was the primary victim of a weak front 4.

; Your story isn't over yet ;
Seer1 is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:35 AM   #6
Saint Historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: deep in the bowels of a hidden bunker, somewhere under the brick & steel of a nondescript building..
Posts: 2,623
According to the ESPN folks, doesn't sound like we have much of a chance.

After all, we have NEVER (as they emphasized) won a road playoff game...

Can't wait to see them eat some crow tonight.
arsaint is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:36 AM   #7
Merces Letifer
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 4,161
Ah! Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

Here is the problem with averages.
If out of $100, I give you $1 and I take $99, guess what, we average $50 apiece, but I got a lot more than you.

Here's another problem with the DVOA: all those teams who comprise the DVOA statistics are not the 2011 NO Saints.
Tobias-Reiper is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:45 AM   #8
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Anchorage, AK
Posts: 2,484
Blog Entries: 2
Agree with Porter comments. I think he's ready for the move to weak safety. He's a great tackler and has decent speed, but he seems scared of the ball. He used to attack the ball. Now he just makes a good tackle after the catch.

Alaska
Rueben Mayes likes this.
AlaskaSaints is offline  
Old 01-14-2012, 12:07 PM   #9
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Wherever I lay my hat
Posts: 3,824
I was half expecting
and when neither side has a historical advantage what happens when the both teams have gold in their uniforms.....

But what happens when SP is head coach, the QB is Brees, and .....

We will soon find out. Because it is soone GAME TIME!
UK_WhoDat is offline  
Closed Thread

Tags
3-4, 4-3, 49ers, analysis, blitz, brees, cornerback, coverage, defense, football outsiders, greer, linebacker, new orleans, offense, offensive line, porter, prediction, safety, saints, san francisco, smith, tight end, wide receiver

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules

LinkBacks (?)
LinkBack to this Thread: https://blackandgold.com/saints/40359-disturbing-skinny-no-sf.html
Posted By For Type Date Hits
The Disturbing Skinny on NO @ SF This thread Refback 01-14-2012 11:31 AM 4


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:37 PM.


Copyright 1997 - 2020 - BlackandGold.com
no new posts