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RockyMountainSaint 02-18-2012 07:04 PM

Draft Luck? Draft Freakonomics (video)

SapperSaint 02-18-2012 07:38 PM

interesting....very interesting.

Good post Rocky

Crusader 02-19-2012 02:09 AM

speaking about the first round pick, a guy picked very early in the round usually comes to a team with a much worse situation than a guy picked later in the round, that can have a huge impact in shaping a young guys career.

FinSaint 02-19-2012 05:58 AM

While I do agree with the math presented in the video on probability, there are other things that have to be factored in than just salary vs performance.

The 1st round picks are the ones, who create the most excitement among the media and the fan base, which usually directly or indirectly transforms into larger profits gained by the franchise through various avenues.

Case and point - Reggie Bush.

In my opinion most of us feel kind of similar about him as a player and as a pick. He was SP's first pick as the HC of the Saints and, therefore, in affect the precursor for how SP would build his teams going forward. Bush was the most electrifying offensive player available, which made him the player SP coveted above all else. Bush created an excited in both the media and the fan base which came at a time when the franchise - and more importantly the city and the people it represented - needed something to look forward to.

Bush may have not produced on the field at the level at which most if not all hoped he would've, he showed flashes of excellence accompanied with moments of pure frustration mixed in with number of injuries, but through it all he was a player people loved to talk about and follow.

The one thing I really like about that pick - which is rarely mentioned - is the fact that when the Saints picked Bush they added an offensive playmaker with huge expectations. Some would say that those expectations were unfounded if we closely look at his college career, but that is neither here nor there.

While the media and the fan base were focused on Bush and his future contributions, another new player was able to fly somewhat more under the radar than he would've otherwise: Drew Brees. Now I don't know how big of a difference it made in Brees getting both mentally and physically ready for the season, but it had to have helped that he was not the only big puzzle piece added to the offense that off-season.

In the end it might be easy to state that Bush never lived up to being a 1st round pick if we simply make that assessment based on his salary vs his on field performance, but that same assessment might change quite drastically if we expand our evaluation to include the other factors I described above. That is the common problem in using probability when the human factor is involved.

SloMotion 02-19-2012 07:38 AM

So true ... the randomness of the draft, 50% chance of success, sophisticated guesswork ... that is the NFL draft, a crapshoot ... intangibles make-or-break a pick.

Trading away the first pick for multiple future picks is a better strategy too, IMO, unless there's an absolute can't-miss pick in a position you need.

I'd pick RG III over Luck, also ... something tells me he's gonna' be the better NFL QB.

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