Schedule adds to Saints' woes
 

As if things weren't bad enough for the New Orleans Saints, add the schedule to their growing list of problems.

Head coach Sean Payton will start his season-long suspension Monday. Interim coach Joe Vitt is out the first six games, and general manager Mickey Loomis is out eight games. The Saints don't have choices in Rounds 1 and 2 of the draft, and they could lose defensive players to suspensions in the bounty scandal.

The schedule could add more woes, judging by the difference in opponents' winning percentage. The Saints may not have the hardest schedule in football, but the .063 difference between last year's .449 schedule and 2012's .504 schedule is the biggest differential in football. My studies of schedules over the years indicate that any change of .020 is worth a win or a loss.

Based on those numbers, the Saints could drop about three games from their 13-3 2011 record, and that's not taking into account the losses on the coaching staff and potentially in personnel. To make matters worse, it might be hard for the Saints to go 5-1 in what should become a tough NFC South.

The Carolina Panthers improved four games last year because of the play of quarterback Cam Newton. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have changed coaches after a horrible 4-12 season and had perhaps the best offseason, adding wide receiver Vincent Jackson, guard Carl Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright.

The schedule points to the possibility of the Atlanta Falcons winning the NFC South. The Falcons have minimal change from their 2011 schedule. They went 10-6 last season on a .480 schedule. In 2012, they have a .488 schedule. Their out-of-division opponents were 79-81 last season, which makes that portion of the Falcons' schedule -- 10 games -- about the 17th easiest in the league.

New Orleans, however, plays the sixth-toughest out-of-division schedule at 89-71. Like everyone else in the NFC South, the Saints play the NFC East and the AFC West, which just got tougher because of the addition of Peyton Manning. Because the Saints won the division, they also draw the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers, teams that had combined records of 28-4 last year.

That means the Saints' defense could face Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman. Ouch.

Scheduling is one of the reasons we usually see a 50 percent turnover in playoff teams every year. The Saints won the NFC South in 2009 and 2011, years in which they played the easiest schedule in football. The Falcons won the division in 2010 because their toughest games were at home while the Saints' toughest games were on the road.

The Baltimore Ravens could lose their one-year edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers because of the schedule. They go from a .477 schedule in 2011 to a .523, a .046 change that could pull them down by two games from their 12-4 finish. Their .523 schedule is the fourth toughest in the league, tied with the St. Louis Rams.

Complicating things is a first-place schedule that includes games against the New England Patriots and Houston Texans. The Steelers, meanwhile, go from a .492 schedule to a .500, a minimal change that could allow them to stay at the 12-4 level.

Winning the NFC East won't be easy. It wasn't easy last year when the New York Giants got hot at the end of the season and won an underachieving division with a 9-7 record. The Giants, Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles face schedules that range from .026 to .031 tougher than last year. The Giants, for example, face the toughest non-division schedule in football, going against teams with a 98-62 combined record, a burden that means they could play better and still have a tough time getting nine wins.

The NFC East plays the NFC South and the AFC North. The Eagles face a .516 schedule, .026 tougher than last year. The Dallas Cowboys play a .504 schedule, .031 tougher than last season.

The San Francisco 49ers' chances of winning 13 games aren't good. Jim Harbaugh's team breezed through a .449 schedule that helped it win 13 games in 2011. The 49ers' success was rewarded with a slightly tougher .488 schedule in a division that is getting tougher. That .039 change could drop them to 11-5, but to do that, they would have to stay at 5-1 in a tougher division. Their 91-69 out-of-division schedule is the third toughest in the league.

Watch for at least one of the wild cards to come out of the NFC North because of easier schedules. The NFC North plays the NFC West and AFC South. Peyton Manning is gone to Denver, leaving Matt Schaub of the Texans as the toughest quarterback in that eight-game package of nondivision games.

As a result, the Green Bay Packers end up with the second-easiest schedule in the league, playing teams that were 120-136. The Detroit Lions could be an 11- or 12 win team thanks to a .043 change in their 2012 schedule, going from .535 to a .492. The Chicago Bears benefit from a .035 break, going from a .527 schedule to a .492.

Don't expect anyone to catch the New England Patriots in the AFC East. They ended up with the league's easiest schedule at .453 and face only four teams with nine or more victories last

NFL - Schedule does Saints no favors - ESPN

What a douche.

Goodell never said anything about "trading up into the first round for a pick". :-)

To me it's crazy that the Patriots played in the Super Bowl and they end up having the easiest schedule out of the 32 teams. http://smileys.on-my-web.com/reposit...nsored-108.gif

Look it's our good 'ole buddy, John Clayton :rolleyes:

Schedule strength is such a flawed stat.

The average record of teams we played last year was 7-9, this year its 8-8.

And is there really a big difference between a 3-13 team and a 5-11 team? Thats a 2 game swing but we'd be 2 TD favorites over each of them.

I think that since Goodell is angry with the Saints organization, the NFL will their best to make the Saints schedule as terrible as possible.
http://prod.static.saints.clubs.nfl....-opponents.jpg
I'm guessing that the last six games of the season will include @Green Bay, @New England, @New York, home against the Chargers (a team known for playing well towards the end of the season), @Denver, home against 49ers.

I don't see it as really all that tough, the division games will be the roughest I think

I don't know, I think that majority of those games/opponents will be hard fought contests, especially since a weaker team like the Raiders now have Allen as their HC, who knows a lot about how to play against the Saints.

By no means will it be an easy regular season for the Saints, but hopefully they can at least keep up the undefeated record at home.

I guess it all depends on how the defense does this year, I'm basing all my thoughts with the assumption they'll do well

I dunno Mitch, "on paper" it does look pretty tough, but as you and I know thats just on paper, and teams can go either direction really fast.

Dont forget, last years win-loss record for our opponents is skewed by the fact that we gave those teams 13 losses.

Remove us from last years stats and its win% is right about the same as this year's schedule.

True, and I'm right there in that boat with you, but you can't argue the fact that the schedule could've been a lot easier - at least on paper like Danno said.

Even without Sean as coach that's a 10-12 win type of schedule, you can't tell before the draft which teams are going to be good and who's going to be terrible, a couple injuries to any of the "good/great" teams and they turn into blowout wins

The way the NFL schedule is set up now, you have to get lucky on which year you catch a team because every 3 years, you are locked to a given division plus whatever teams finished in the same spot as you last year ..... its makes it easy on the office to produce a schedule but i wouldn't be surprised if the Saints get cold weather games against the Packers and Giants before they close out the season in division

IMO the Saints will beat the Giants by at least 21 points, its how the Saints have handled the Giants the last few years

Well, then we'll just have to step up. In 2009 a lot of folks thought our schedule was difficult. It won't be easy but we are going to handle the tough games and all road games fairly well. I believe we can still win 10 or 11 games. And with a little good luck me might could go deep in the playoffs.

Saints play New England in the pre-season, not in the regular season

Where do you see New England in that picture?

Oh, yeah, you were referring to the text below the picture.

Agreed, SOS is always overblown, and rarely accurate. Atl has an easier schedule, but has to play us twice? I'll take that.

That means the Saints' defense could face Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman. Ouch.
and they all have to face Brees, who is rivaled by only Rodgers. We were 6-2 vs those QB's last year, and 6 inches from 7-1.

I think with Spags D every game will be held close, very close.

I doubt it, with Spags' D the Saints will be winning games with a wide margin. ;-)

No more, heart attack games?! :bng:

I guess it all depends on your medicine regiment. http://smileys.on-my-web.com/reposit...ng/lol-021.gif

I'm so sick of last years Titans or 49er type games... Where it's won or lost within the last minute :doh:

I'm fine with those as long as the Saints come on top in the end.

I'm not sure where I got that. :confused:

I still see at least 10 wins with a good chance of 13. No biggie, teams go through this every year.

This strength of schedule thing is the stupidest statistic/determination of a team's outcome imaginable. Like injuries don't happen... Like teams don't go through slumps (i.e. Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Raiders, Falcons, etc.)

Since when does anyone even talk about schedules? It is what it is, and you play the games.

But leave it to John Hatin' to try to find something else negative to talk about. Loser.