KillerSaint3632

I don't oddsmakers. They always seem to be grapsing at straws in a league where parity is king. You do not have to look very far to see that is the case, parity.The New Orleans Saints are a curosity in the NFL right now. We do not seem to be the basement dwellers we once were under Ditka but at the same time in many people opinions, albeit our critics, we havent yet reached the level of where we can be considered winners. It is ironic to me that people in the media put people like Donovan Mcnabb on a pedestal and worship everything that he does. Meanwhile, who are these Saints? These guys who wear black and gold and even though are a little undsicplined at times, have a team that is FAR SUPERIOR then a team like the Eagles or the Rams. I wish that some people would stop listening to what the Vegas oddsmakers say and all the predictions that many magazines put out in June and July. Because it all comes down to wants it the most. After all, The Oddsmakers are not the ones I pay $50 to comeand see every fall in New Orleans.

GumboBC

Hey, I agree with ya killer. If the oddsmakers were so great at predicting games. They would be billionaires, sitting on their private island. I don\'t pay a lot of attention to \'em either...........

St.Shrume

i agree. Most of these \'experts\' are biased (which is natural), and their pre-season predictions are crap.

BUT i remember last year, i was on a plane back home to Louisiana, and this guy had one of those pre-season magazines that breaks down each team and gives a final rating to each team. So the guy sees me looking at it, and being a gentleman, he gave it to me when he was done.

I was all excited (as all Saints fans are before the season starts), and they had the NFC South in this order: Carolina, Atlanta, Saints, Bucs. It blew me away... Panthers?? They picked them to go far in the playoffs. This was the only time I have seen a publication like that be pretty darn good. I mean nobody i know thought that, even during the season.

I am trying to remember the name of the publication so I can see what they have us as this year.

WhoDat

Wow - now if this isn\'t a Saint fan\'s thread I don\'t know what is. It just makes me chuckle.

I guess you can color me a critic then. Our last three seasons: 7-9, 9-7, 8-8. That\'s 24-24. Now, I\'m no rocket scientist, but don\'t you have to be ABOVE .500 to be considered a winner? Adding in the fact that historically this is one of the losingest franchise in NFL history... you\'re right, I can\'t see any reason why those no-good nimrods parading around as \"analysts\" don\'tt pick the Saints to be winners every season. By the way, most of the critics I saw last season had us finishing third in the division... Vick doesn\'t get hurt and that is exacly what would have happened.

HA HA HA. Billy, you\'re great. Most of the oddsmakers are casinos. Yeah, I see a whole lot of casinos going belly up, don\'t you? Vegas just keeps shrinking every day. These casinos set a line by which they stand to make or lose millions of dollars. Think they might put a little time and effort in to making sure that they get it right?

\"Excuses, excuses, excuses. That’s all anyone ever makes for the New Orleans Saints’ organization.\" - Eric Narcisse


\"Being a Saints fan is almost like being addicted to crack,\" he said.[i]\"You know you should stop, but you just can\'t.\"

GumboBC

HA HA HA. Billy, you\'re great. Most of the oddsmakers are casinos. Yeah, I see a whole lot of casinos going belly up, don\'t you? Vegas just keeps shrinking every day. These casinos set a line by which they stand to make or lose millions of dollars. Think they might put a little time and effort in to making sure that they get it right? [/quote:b573aec1ca]

Must I always educate you, WhoDat.

This article is talking about teams overall record for 16-games. These guys in Vegas are making their money on WEEKLY NFL games that INCLUDE a SPREAD that has to be covered. Their not making too much money WITHOUT that SPREAD. See if you can contact your local bookie and get him to let you bet on ANY games without having to cover the spread.

How well do you think these guys in Vegas would do if folks could just bet on teams straight up? They would probably go belly-up wouldn\'t they?

So, picking teams straight up is one thing. Covering the spread is another. That\'s why I pay very little attention to them.

Oh, it ain\'t hard to pick most teams to finish around 8-8 and come within a game or two of being right in a league where parity rules. Which is basically what this guy did. Except he gave the elite teams a couple of more wins and the cellar dwellers a couple of less wins.

What ya think, WhoDat?? :P







[Edited on 5/6/2004 by GumboBC]

WhoDat

Yes Billy, you can bet on individual games, winner/loser, spreads, who will score first, and a whole slew of other things. Shall I remind you of how much money I made last year doing just that?

These \"odds-makers\" ALWAYS put out lines around this time of year, do they not? Odds of making the playoffs, odds of winning it all... how often are they wrong?

Let me ask you this Billy - how many games do YOU think the Saints will win this year?

GumboBC

I\'m no gambling expert. As a matter of fact, I never bet on the games. But, I have never heard of any place where you can bet on indivdual games without having to cover the line. Maybe, but I don\'t think so.

Yeah, they do always put out odds on a variety of things. However, this is \"fools gold.\" Just like every game in the casino........the odds are against you. These guys aren\'t stupid.

Do you know why the \"line\" on a football game changes? It\'s because a lot of money is bet on a certain team to win and they raise the \"line\" to cover their ***.

And as far as how often they are wrong about their preseason rankings. Well, like I said, it isn\'t hard to predict 3/4 of the teams to finish 8-8 and give the elite teams 2 wins over .500 and the cellar dwellers 2 wins less than .500. I can do the samething and make a killing if I can get enough suckers to bet against me.

Well, 8-8 of course. That way if they only win 6 then I only missed by 2 games and if they win 10 games then I only missed by 2 games. If they happen to finish 8-8 in a league where parity rules, then I\'m a genius. Yep, 8-8. I come out smelling like a rose any way you cut it.

Of course, there are teams like the Panthers that come out of no where. I guess in a case like that I\'ll just have to be wrong just like the \"Vegas Experts\" are. :P


[Edited on 2/6/2004 by GumboBC]

[Edited on 2/6/2004 by GumboBC]

saintfan

Remind ME...and tell me where I can go to bet win/lose, straight up. I see an extended vacation in my future! This is a serious request. I don\'t bet much, but I\'ve always been shy \'cause of the point spread.

GumboBC

saintfan - There is no place to bet on the games \"straight up\" If that\'s the case I\'ll put $5,000 on the Patriots vs. Chargers game.


Now, let\'s examine these \"Vegas Experts\" preseason rankings. I want everyone to read this quote by Mike Detillier VERY CAREFULLY. At first glance, it appears the \"Vegas Experts\" are geniuses. Just check out what they are really doing though....


Not bad, right? Here are the over/ under totals for all 32 NFL clubs:

Of course you would put these 3 teams at the top. But notice how they use \" ½\". What that means is if any of these teams wins 12 games the \"Vegas Experts\" are techincally within 1 game of being correct in their prediction. Have you ever seen a team win ½ of a game? Notice they purposely gave all these elite teams a low prediction in the number of wins. Why? Because they already have the 12 game prediction covered with-in a game of being right. And if they only win 9 games, they still are technically within a game of being right. It\'s all perception. Believe me, these guys arrange things so they appear to be able to be right. Within a game...Yeah, right.

Also notice the \"Vegas Experts\" were only within 1-game of their prediction for 24 of the 32 totals for NFL teams. That means even though they are making things easy on themselves by using the \"½\" -- they were still way off the mark 8 times.

Anyway, they have the teams ranked about where you would want them if you were trying to get folks to bet. I see nothing special about any of it. It\'s all in the odds.

Here are the rest of the teams.

Kansas City Chiefs, 10
Tennessee Titans, 10

St. Louis Rams, 9½
Green Bay Packers, 9½

Dallas Cowboys, 9
Miami Dolphins, 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9
Denver Broncos, 9
Washington Redskins, 9
Atlanta Falcons, 9
Baltimore Ravens, 9
Seattle Seahawks, 9
New York Jets, 9

Minnesota Vikings, 8½
Carolina Panthers, 8½

Cincinnati Bengals, 7½
Jacksonville Jaguars, 7½
Buffalo Bills, 7½
Oakland Raiders, 7½
Pittsburgh Steelers, 7½
New Orleans Saints, 7½
Cleveland Browns, 7 ½

Chicago Bears, 7

San Francisco 49ers, n/a*

Detroit Lions, 6½
New York Giants, 6½
Houston Texans, 6½

Arizona Cardinals, 5½

San Diego Chargers, 4½




[Edited on 2/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Danno

Whodat...
I thought injuries were no excuse. We suffered the 2nd most injuries in NFL history and you say if Atlanta hadn\'t suffered 1 stinking injury to one player they\'d have finished above us? With the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL? NO fricking way!
By that logic if we hadn\'t suffered so many key injuries we\'d have finished 14-2.

Vegas makes money by how people bet. The casual NFL fan probably thinks the Saints are a bad team that didn\'t improve because we didn\'t address the CB issue.
Vegas will make a ton of money off of people who bet the Saints won\'t win over 7 games. They know exactly how the majority will bet and guess what... It ain\'t gonna be the over.
Vegas knows the Saints will probably win over 7 games
Vegas knows that most people will bet against that.
They definitely put in the time to get it right.