There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness

GumboBC · 06-25-2004, 12:11 AM

Many threads ago we discussed an article written by Mike Detillier about the preseason predictions made by the odds-makers in Vegas. Mike Detillier would like us to believe that the Vegas experts are some kind of geniuses. Well, I tried to explain how the Vegas experts have no more of a clue than most knowledgeable football fans. But, I don't know how much sense I made or if I even got my point across.

WhoDat seems to want to convice us that the Vegas experts are geniuses too. But, really, that's not the case and I found this interesting article written by Dr. Z that explains how Vegas really makes their money on NFL games.

I'm not going to post any of the article, it's too long. Just click on the link and read it if you're interested in finding out how it really works.

Especially you, WhoDat. You need to read it twice. LMAO.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...owl/index.html

GumboBC · 06-25-2004, 01:32 AM

Billly,

Detillier is biaed and so is Vegas? Are they too negative? LOL :P

Yep, the saluting thread comment is just too much fun. See ya later Billy.

It\'s not that Vegas is too negative. I\'m just saying that the way they make their preseason predictions is dependant on many other factors than how many games they predict a team will win.

But what do you think about this. Read the print under the picture: LOL

According to the Imperial Palace\'s line, the NFC champion Panthers won\'t break .500.

[Edited on 25/6/2004 by GumboBC]

WhoDat · 06-25-2004, 11:38 AM

Yes Billy, you need to read that article again. Not me.

See what it said is that they make a prediction and then the oddsmakers make you pay a premium or you get premium to bet one way or another.

The Imperial Palace put out a 9 1/2-game over-under on them, and I looked at that and said, \'Oh my God, let me get out to Vegas before they change their mind.\'

\"I mean, I knew the Skins were going to tank, and so did my friends. And so did Vegas, because they just killed you with a minus-200 vig if you wanted to bet the under. And practically begged you to bet the over by giving you a plus-140 edge.

Get it? Vegas paid you to bet the over but charged an arm and a leg to bet the under b/c they knew the Skins were going to under their original predictions.

Want to see the Saints numbers this year?

Saints 7 1/2 -115 -115

Doesn\'t matter if you bet over or under you\'re still getting the same vig. What\'s that mean? The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty confident (such that they put millions of dollars on the line) that the Saints will have 7 or 8 wins this year. Can you blame them?

Look, don\'t get me wrong, when it comes to the Saints, I think Vegas is wrong for once. I\'ll bet by the start of the season the lines will have changed to show that. That said, Vegas is right a whole lot more than they\'re wrong... and still a whole lot more than the predictions you\'ve ade Billy.

GumboBC · 06-25-2004, 11:53 AM

WhoDat --

I\'m just busting your chops, man. It\'s really Mike Detillier I had a bone to pick with. This guy is a clown as far as I\'m concerned.

About Vegas. We all know when you walk in the casino that the odds are fair, right? Of course they aren\'t fair, WhoDat!! If the odds were even in a casino, I\'d be living in one of their penthouses.

Nothing is on equal footing when it comes to the money in Vegas. And that includes NFL betting. They aren\'t geniuses at picking winners. But, they are geniuses at making something look attractive and getting a bunch of suckers to bet.

Euphoria · 06-25-2004, 03:27 PM

you also have to realize is that the vegas people or also in need of making a buck. I have a friend who make his living just betting on football games. His theory is that they make decisions on making a buck but they will give you a dog - a freebee to intice people to make bets. What he does if find out which is the dog bet and only bet that one not 2-3 or more bets...

ScottyRo · 06-25-2004, 03:55 PM

Want to see the Saints numbers this year?

Saints 7 1/2 -115 -115

Doesn\'t matter if you bet over or under you\'re still getting the same vig. What\'s that mean? The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty confident (such that they put millions of dollars on the line) that the Saints will have 7 or 8 wins this year. Can you blame them?

The way I read that line is that they really have no idea what the Saints are going to do this year. Putting equally negative vigs on either side shows that.

Look again at the redskins example by Dr. Z. The sportsbooks had them at a +140 for ten wins. Basically trying to beg people to place that bet. The more likely situation was that they\'d win less than 9 1/2, but you had to pay 2-1 to play that side.

This year for the Saints they dropped the over/under right in the middle and are making you put up $115 for a $100 on either side. Like I said, it looks to me like they don\'t know what to expect so they\'re playing it pretty safe.

The easiest thing to do is guess that any team will be 8-8 on the year. The farther away in either direction you predict, the less likely you\'re to be right.

GumboBC · 06-25-2004, 10:11 PM

Posted by: ScottyRo
The easiest thing to do is guess that any team will be 8-8 on the year. The farther away in either direction you predict, the less likely you\'re to be right.

Scotty --

You pretty much nailed it. Only I don\'t think the best way to go is picking every team to finish at .500. There are always the teams that are almost a lock to finish below and above .500. It would be too easy for me to pick Philly to finish over .500 or the Chargers to finish under .500.

So, the best thing Vegas can do is put the celllar dwellers below .500 and put the \"elite\" teams above .500 and arrange the vigs accordingly.

[Edited on 26/6/2004 by GumboBC]

subguy · 06-25-2004, 11:31 PM

Hey I have an idea.......why dont we start a thread dedicated to gambling, possibly showing how odds work , and over/under etc...

no_cloning · 06-26-2004, 05:04 AM

I learned one thing from this article:
The number of victories for a team is NOT the prediction of the bookie. It is merely the number on which the most people are likely to bet.
Take the Redskins example again: Their prediction would probably be 7 wins, but they put out the 9 1/2 win number because that way all the people who bought into the hype would bet the over (like they would if the number was 7), but on the other hand they balance it with betters who predicted 7 wins themselves and wouldn\'t have bet.
Maybe I\'ll rather say they put out numbers and vigs that will balance the betting (if the betting is balanced, the house has won before the game is played). But the important thing is that the number they put out is not their prediction. For the Saints it is, but that\'s a special case.

06-25-2004, 12:11 AM	#1
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness Many threads ago we discussed an article written by Mike Detillier about the preseason predictions made by the odds-makers in Vegas. Mike Detillier would like us to believe that the Vegas experts are some kind of geniuses. Well, I tried to explain how the Vegas experts have no more of a clue than most knowledgeable football fans. But, I don't know how much sense I made or if I even got my point across. WhoDat seems to want to convice us that the Vegas experts are geniuses too. But, really, that's not the case and I found this interesting article written by Dr. Z that explains how Vegas really makes their money on NFL games. I'm not going to post any of the article, it's too long. Just click on the link and read it if you're interested in finding out how it really works. Especially you, WhoDat. You need to read it twice. LMAO. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...owl/index.html
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

06-25-2004, 01:32 AM	#2
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness Billly, Detillier is biaed and so is Vegas? Are they too negative? LOL :P Yep, the saluting thread comment is just too much fun. See ya later Billy. It\'s not that Vegas is too negative. I\'m just saying that the way they make their preseason predictions is dependant on many other factors than how many games they predict a team will win. But what do you think about this. Read the print under the picture: LOL According to the Imperial Palace\'s line, the NFC champion Panthers won\'t break .500. [Edited on 25/6/2004 by GumboBC]
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

06-25-2004, 11:38 AM	#3
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness Yes Billy, you need to read that article again. Not me. See what it said is that they make a prediction and then the oddsmakers make you pay a premium or you get premium to bet one way or another. The Imperial Palace put out a 9 1/2-game over-under on them, and I looked at that and said, \'Oh my God, let me get out to Vegas before they change their mind.\' \"I mean, I knew the Skins were going to tank, and so did my friends. And so did Vegas, because they just killed you with a minus-200 vig if you wanted to bet the under. And practically begged you to bet the over by giving you a plus-140 edge. Get it? Vegas paid you to bet the over but charged an arm and a leg to bet the under b/c they knew the Skins were going to under their original predictions. Want to see the Saints numbers this year? Saints 7 1/2 -115 -115 Doesn\'t matter if you bet over or under you\'re still getting the same vig. What\'s that mean? The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty confident (such that they put millions of dollars on the line) that the Saints will have 7 or 8 wins this year. Can you blame them? Look, don\'t get me wrong, when it comes to the Saints, I think Vegas is wrong for once. I\'ll bet by the start of the season the lines will have changed to show that. That said, Vegas is right a whole lot more than they\'re wrong... and still a whole lot more than the predictions you\'ve ade Billy.
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	\"Excuses, excuses, excuses. ThatÃ¢Â€Â™s all anyone ever makes for the New Orleans SaintsÃ¢Â€Â™ organization.\" - Eric Narcisse \"Being a Saints fan is almost like being addicted to crack,\" he said.[i]\"You know you should stop, but you just can\'t.\"

06-25-2004, 11:53 AM	#4
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness WhoDat -- I\'m just busting your chops, man. It\'s really Mike Detillier I had a bone to pick with. This guy is a clown as far as I\'m concerned. About Vegas. We all know when you walk in the casino that the odds are fair, right? Of course they aren\'t fair, WhoDat!! If the odds were even in a casino, I\'d be living in one of their penthouses. Nothing is on equal footing when it comes to the money in Vegas. And that includes NFL betting. They aren\'t geniuses at picking winners. But, they are geniuses at making something look attractive and getting a bunch of suckers to bet.
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

06-25-2004, 03:27 PM	#5
Euphoria 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Hollywood, CA Posts: 7,601 Blog Entries: 5	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness you also have to realize is that the vegas people or also in need of making a buck. I have a friend who make his living just betting on football games. His theory is that they make decisions on making a buck but they will give you a dog - a freebee to intice people to make bets. What he does if find out which is the dog bet and only bet that one not 2-3 or more bets...

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06-25-2004, 03:55 PM	#6
ScottyRo 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Williamsburg, VA (ugh, the food here) Posts: 1,704	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness Want to see the Saints numbers this year? Saints 7 1/2 -115 -115 Doesn\'t matter if you bet over or under you\'re still getting the same vig. What\'s that mean? The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty confident (such that they put millions of dollars on the line) that the Saints will have 7 or 8 wins this year. Can you blame them? The way I read that line is that they really have no idea what the Saints are going to do this year. Putting equally negative vigs on either side shows that. Look again at the redskins example by Dr. Z. The sportsbooks had them at a +140 for ten wins. Basically trying to beg people to place that bet. The more likely situation was that they\'d win less than 9 1/2, but you had to pay 2-1 to play that side. This year for the Saints they dropped the over/under right in the middle and are making you put up $115 for a $100 on either side. Like I said, it looks to me like they don\'t know what to expect so they\'re playing it pretty safe. The easiest thing to do is guess that any team will be 8-8 on the year. The farther away in either direction you predict, the less likely you\'re to be right.

06-25-2004, 10:11 PM	#7
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness Posted by: ScottyRo The easiest thing to do is guess that any team will be 8-8 on the year. The farther away in either direction you predict, the less likely you\'re to be right. Scotty -- You pretty much nailed it. Only I don\'t think the best way to go is picking every team to finish at .500. There are always the teams that are almost a lock to finish below and above .500. It would be too easy for me to pick Philly to finish over .500 or the Chargers to finish under .500. So, the best thing Vegas can do is put the celllar dwellers below .500 and put the \"elite\" teams above .500 and arrange the vigs accordingly. [Edited on 26/6/2004 by GumboBC]
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

06-25-2004, 11:31 PM	#8
subguy 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: FL Posts: 2,057	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness Hey I have an idea.......why dont we start a thread dedicated to gambling, possibly showing how odds work , and over/under etc...

06-26-2004, 05:04 AM	#9
no_cloning 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 249	There's a method to Vegas' preseason prognostication madness I learned one thing from this article: The number of victories for a team is NOT the prediction of the bookie. It is merely the number on which the most people are likely to bet. Take the Redskins example again: Their prediction would probably be 7 wins, but they put out the 9 1/2 win number because that way all the people who bought into the hype would bet the over (like they would if the number was 7), but on the other hand they balance it with betters who predicted 7 wins themselves and wouldn\'t have bet. Maybe I\'ll rather say they put out numbers and vigs that will balance the betting (if the betting is balanced, the house has won before the game is played). But the important thing is that the number they put out is not their prediction. For the Saints it is, but that\'s a special case.
no_cloning 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 249