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Fantasy Question...

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; In a league where a QB gets 6 points for a td pass and you have the 12 and 13 pics would you consider taking Manning and Moss over a Taylor and Barlow?...

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Old 07-04-2004, 09:12 AM   #1
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Fantasy Question...

In a league where a QB gets 6 points for a td pass and you have the 12 and 13 pics would you consider taking Manning and Moss over a Taylor and Barlow?
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Old 07-04-2004, 11:25 AM   #2
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Fantasy Question...

It\'s a value proposition. Consider:

If your league is setup where your QB gets 1 pt for every 50 yards and 6 for a TD, and RBs and WRs get 1 pt for every 20 yards and 6 for a TD, then who to pick is pretty easy to figure out.

Is the number 10 or so RB available going to outscore Manning? Let\'s assume that he has 100 yards and .75 TDs a game. That\'s one hell of a year - 1,600 yards rushing and 12 TDs makes that guy a Pro Bowler. Thus, he\'ll score about 10 points a game. (Obviously there\'s no way the number 10 RB in th league will have numbers that good.)

Manning should be good for about 200+ yards and 1.5 TDs a game if he stays healthy. That\'s 13 points a game. Obviously, any pick is a risk b/c of injury, poor performance, etc.

Last year, I had the last pick of the first round, and first of the second round. I took the best two players available (both QBs). Later I traded Vick for Williams and got lucky when Vick got hurt. Of course, Williams had an off year too, but...

By Moss I assume that you mean Randy and not Santana. I would pass on Moss. That\'s just my personal opinion. The guy has the ability to be unstoppable, but he often has bad games when he pouts, gets knocked around, or things just aren\'t going the way he wants. There are other premier receivers out there who can score consistently.

[Edited on 4/7/2004 by WhoDat]

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Old 07-04-2004, 01:55 PM   #3
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Fantasy Question...

well I am going with qb\'s at 6 points a td which is better than the top 3 rb\'s... I figure if ya pick at 12 and 13th you won\'t get top 3 rb\'s so might as well get the elite players in other areas and being qb and wr...???
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Old 07-04-2004, 04:26 PM   #4
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Fantasy Question...

If you pick in a 12 player league and Moss and Manning are still available 11 players have already picked RBs. You can\'t simply ignore that or you\'ll wind up with 2 starting RBs that don\'t even start on their team. You don\'t pick again until #36 after the 13th pick!
In my opinion you HAVE to take one RB and spend the other pick on a player you like regardless of position (in this case probably Manning).

As a total newbie last year I picked Manning with the second overall pick (which wasn\'t totally unreasonable, he was among the points leaders at the end of the season). Of course the 16 next picks were all RBs (or all but one maybe) and I had to pick Charlie Garner as the best RB left (seriously, he was). Of course that meant I had problems at the RB spot all season long and I was only able to win that league because someone traded me Moe Williams in week 4 (before he began to score big).
Lesson learned: You can\'t ignore the RB craze even if you value other players higher.

I don\'t totally agree with WhoDat\'s value approach either. It\'s not only about the average points a player will score or if he is consistent, there\'s also the question how big the drop-off is. If Fred Taylor is there at #12 you have to take him because the drop-off at the RB position after the first 12-15 backs is rather steep. If you don\'t get Manning, you can still get Vick or Culpepper - it\'s even debatable who of these three should be the highest ranked fantasy quarterback. And then there\'s Bulger, Hasselback and McNabb, maybe Brooks ...
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Old 07-05-2004, 08:49 AM   #5
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I agree with you on that... I think my debate is if Moss is there. I don\'t think you can pass up on a number one at that position. Taking Moss then a RB is probably the way to go. There will be Qb\'s available later that are arguable top 3 and one doing better i.e. Brooks.
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Old 07-05-2004, 02:08 PM   #6
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I don\'t know if you necessarily \"HAVE\" to take a RB. You could do what I did and take two premier QBs and then trade for a premier RB. However, it is probably wise to go RB right there.

Of course, the other issue is this - if you\'re always picking at the same positions as the guys ahead of you you\'re always getting a guy outside of the top 10 at his position. If you go RB, you probably get the 11th best RB (or maybe 9th or 10th, but the 10th best guy is a lot different than the 2nd). You might consider grabbing the best QB and best WR on the board so you have number ones at two positions to make up for having lower ranked players at other positions. If you pick a RB at that spot, think about how far down the line your WR will be at pick number 36!

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Old 07-06-2004, 01:09 PM   #7
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Fantasy Question...

Definitely get your running back with one of the picks. Regardless, the RB position is your bread and butter all season long. Then I\'d take Moss over a QB. They\'ll be plenty of QB\'s (especially sleepers) later on. A value pick like Moss doesn\'t come along very often.
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Old 07-06-2004, 08:58 PM   #8
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Yes I have to agree with you as well and some so-called experts give the same advice. But having Manning, Culpepper and or Moss there when ya pick is going to be hard not to take Manning and Moss
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