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SEVERE WEATHER ALERT --- ISAAC HEADS UP
I know this isn't the place for this but I feel the need to let my B&G brothers and sisters that may not know what is going on right now. If you have been watching the news lately and are waiting for them to tell you to do something, DON'T.
The news will ONLY go by what the NHC says. If you watch the weather channel and pay close attention and read between the lines, they have been hinting at a model shift all day. The 0z GFS model run just finished up. It does not look good for us is SELA. Make your plans now!! As soon as this news is broad casted, it's going to be chaos. A GREAT site I go to is gulfcoastwx.com. A lot of pro mets and meteorology students on this site. Constant model runs you will not hear about on the local news. I am sorry if I am alarming anyone. I went through Katrina and we were somewhat caught off guard. This is the same set up in regards to being caught off guard. Hope this stays away but for now most models are pointing to us in SELA and MS. Please stay safe. |
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*Bump*
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I am not sure I follow what your getting at? Please explain.
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Local news here in New Orleans are saying the NWS will not know the direction this thing is heading until late tomorrow.
Some of these noodle models shifted toward the west but the National Weather Service did not change their models. Means it could be just predictions at the moment data was extracted from the noodle models. Local meteorologist are not predicting it will come here, rather fall between Alabama/Florida line. I trust the local meteorologists more than the national services. |
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All weathermen are Goodell.
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I'm sorry, nut how were you caught off guard by Katrina?
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Yeah, the NHC is basically saying Isaac will make landfall somewhere between Mexico and Florida, LOL! I shoulda been a weatherman!
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The last 4 GFS runs all have it coming here. Nogaps, Hwrf coming here. The only major model to not have it coming here YET is the Euro. BUT that is the main model they are banking on. They moved the cone this morning because the Euro is trending west. The funny thing about that is 3 days ago when the Euro was saying SW LA and ALL the other models were pointing to Fla. it was cast off as the outlier and had no implications in the NHC track. Now that it is the lone outlier saying east, the NHC is putting all the weight with it? Take this for what you want. I was just trying to sound the word of caution because local mets are NOT allowed to do there own thing. They have to report what the NHC says. |
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I know he's a bit of a tool but Bob Breck is usually right, in his interpretation of the information, or knowing when to panic and when not to panic
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Bob use to be a cool dude. He was always willing to give his personal feelings on storms. Notice a difference now? They reeled his butt in big time after Katrina.
FWIW Viper had Katrina going to Fla. as well. Just sayin. Be prepared! |
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It should be noted that last time I went to a Saints preseason game - in 2005 - Katrina hit.
It should also be noted that ice cream sales, occurrences of rape, and hurricanes all increase in warm weather. Therefore, ice cream causes rape and hurricanes. Vote Obama before he hits the hurricane button ... |
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I'm hoping for a nice little mini vacation... like all the "hurricanes" before Katrina.
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Latest track has it hitting Mississippi ... Get prepared my brothers and sisters.
Tropical Storm Isaac : 5 Day Forecast Map | Weather Underground Tropical Storm Isaac : GFS Ensemble Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground Tropical Storm Isaac : Alerts | Weather Underground |
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For those of you that have the option, that's great, but the rest of us won't evacuate until we know we can't go into work the next day.
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Crap...hotlinks not working..sorry..i'll figure something out
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99 Hrs Note: This run is taking it a good bit further west than the last 4 runs..we'll have to wait and see
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Re: SEVERE WEATHER ALERT --- ISAAC HEADS UP
If this were to verify, we would be talking about 12+ hours of a strengthening hurricane hugging our coast.
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The Euro comes out at around 1:00. I will post the updates from it.
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Sorry..just got back home from grocery store getting last minute things. Will post Euro shortly.
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Euro is still holding on to the Ala./Fla. line. IMO I don't know how much stock to put into this one model. Reason being, the Euro is notorious for being better at long term forcasts than short term. If you remember correctly, when this was 6-5 days out it had it going to SW LA. Now it is the only major player still on the AL/FL line.
GFS has been greatly enhanced before the start of this season and so far it has been right on the money with each storm this year. So take it for what its worth. Do whats best for you and your family. I can tell you, the stores shelves are already emptying and every gas station has a long line. The window is closing on making a decision if you are going to leave or not. http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/2...t500mb072p.gif Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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Reality
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View from our hotel roon in Naples, FL
http://img.tapatalk.com/4c659d83-854a-f5cc.jpg Somewhere over the rainbow! |
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Viel Glück, mein freund! WEN DASS! |
Re: SEVERE WEATHER ALERT --- ISAAC HEADS UP
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
Re: SEVERE WEATHER ALERT --- ISAAC HEADS UP
Thanks Mike
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You betcha!! Just wanna keep my B&G bro's/sis's up to date the best I can. Maybe it will help somebody. :bng:
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18Z GFS is about to start. SHOULD...have today's sounding and recon data. We shall see. I will post results.
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Yikes..really beginning to deepen
36 Hrs http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/9...500mb036fm.gif Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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