New Orleans Saints - blackandgold.com

New Orleans Saints - blackandgold.com (http://blackandgold.com/community/)
-   Saints (http://blackandgold.com/saints/)
-   -   Done (http://blackandgold.com/saints/50791-done.html)

xan 09-24-2012 06:51 PM

Done
 
At least that is the overwhelming sentiment of the pundits, analysts and personalities. Most think we'd be lucky to win 5.

Is there something to hang our hat on for this week? Should we wait to see how the Pack fare against the seahags before playing taps?

papz 09-24-2012 06:59 PM

Re: Done
 
Pride.

Any given Sunday.

TheOak 09-24-2012 07:27 PM

Thermopylae

The Dude 09-24-2012 07:30 PM

Re: Done
 
Bobby and Deke seem to think we can go 10-6. So if you put any stock into what they say there is a shred of hope. That and the fact that we seem to break the odds of what teams are not supposed to do, like when they said no team had ever lost the last 3 games and gone to the SB. They say only 3% chance to make the playoffs so I guess we could break those odds.

SaintsBro 09-24-2012 08:53 PM

Re: Done
 
I'm not sticking the fork in the season until I see what Joe Vitt can do. It's not going to be the Kromer and Carmichael football follies show for all 17 weeks. As for the Pack, they haven't been scoring as much as usual. If you ask me our chances, Slim has not left town on that game yet. But he is out there by the city line with a suitcase, waiting to thumb a ride. But not gone yet.

73Saint 09-24-2012 08:57 PM

Re: Done
 
First, we have Got to fix the O-line and give Brees some time. Otherwise we are done, and Brees is going to get hurt.

Budsdrinker 09-24-2012 09:09 PM

Re: Done
 
How many people gave the viqueens a shot at beating the whiners yesterday?
Like Papz says any given Sunday

westbankdaze 09-24-2012 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xan (Post 442643)
At least that is the overwhelming sentiment of the pundits, analysts and personalities. Most think we'd be lucky to win 5.

Is there something to hang our hat on for this week? Should we wait to see how the Pack fare against the seahags before playing taps?

You can't take anything from the pack vs the Seahawks. Their home field advantage is insane in their house.

Packers advantages over us:

Better defense
Better QB
Home field

Saints advantages over the pack:

None


There you have it. Predict the outcome

73Saint 09-24-2012 09:31 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by westbankdaze (Post 442710)
You can't take anything from the pack vs the Seahawks. Their home field advantage is insane in their house.

Packers advantages over us:

Better defense
Better QB
Home field

Saints advantages over the pack:

None


There you have it. Predict the outcome

Wrong. We have at least two advantages. One, Pack are playing on a short week and two NO ONE will give us a chance. Those are two pretty good advantages

RaginCajun83 09-24-2012 09:41 PM

Re: Done
 
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Until Drew is on IR this team still has fight in it. Let's see what Vitt can do before this season is considered lost besides the Packers don't look all that great this year

|Mitch| 09-24-2012 09:43 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RaginCajun83 (Post 442719)
Let's see what Vitt can do before this season is considered lost besides the Packers don't look all that great this year

The Seahawks are man-handling Green Bay so far

SaintsBro 09-24-2012 09:44 PM

Re: Done
 
What's so scary about the Packers, though? THIS YEAR's Packers, not last year or the two years ago Packers. One first-half touchdown in 10 possessions. Giving up sacks all over the place. Drives stalling out. Bad in the red zone. Ranked 22nd in yards per game. Average points per game, actually lower than us. Lost to the big bad 49ers who just lost to.... Minnesota. Beat the Bears with a goofy fake field goal, not with an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. Rodgers 16th in passer rating. That's not all THAT MUCH better than Drew right now.

AlaskaSaints 09-24-2012 09:44 PM

Re: Done
 
Reminds me of the last time I was in Seattle... Hmmm...

Alaska

spkb25 09-24-2012 10:02 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 73Saint (Post 442697)
First, we have Got to fix the O-line and give Brees some time. Otherwise we are done, and Brees is going to get hurt.

quite right, no doubt man

saintfan 09-24-2012 10:31 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RaginCajun83 (Post 442719)
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Until Drew is on IR this team still has fight in it. Let's see what Vitt can do before this season is considered lost besides the Packers don't look all that great this year

The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? When did this happen? I mean, I'm not happy with our current state of foreign affairs, but I was not aware of this.

:lolup:

TheOak 09-25-2012 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saintfan (Post 442755)
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? When did this happen? I mean, I'm not happy with our current state of foreign affairs, but I was not aware of this.

:lolup:

I think Shanle hacked someone's account

xan 09-25-2012 07:31 AM

Re: Done
 
Hey, I forgot, the replacement refs are still on the job. They might forget Goodell's directive to totally screw us. They seem to forget what sport they're officiating.

So, there's that.

NOS2SB 09-25-2012 07:45 AM

Re: Done
 
I think the fans might want to get the problems fixed more than some of the players.

FinSaint 09-25-2012 09:11 AM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Budsdrinker (Post 442703)
How many people gave the viqueens a shot at beating the whiners yesterday?
Like Papz says any given Sunday


I, for one thought the Vikes had a good chance of winning with the way they had played all through the preseason and the first two weeks of the season.

The Vikes could very well be 3-0 if it weren't for some mental lapses late in the game against the Colts.

Danno 09-25-2012 09:25 AM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saintfan (Post 442755)
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? When did this happen? I mean, I'm not happy with our current state of foreign affairs, but I was not aware of this.

:lolup:

From Animal House, a true classic.


skymike 09-25-2012 06:04 PM

Re: Done
 
I've never met anybody who doesnt know the "Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
speech.

alexonfyre 09-25-2012 06:10 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dude (Post 442656)
Bobby and Deke seem to think we can go 10-6. So if you put any stock into what they say there is a shred of hope. That and the fact that we seem to break the odds of what teams are not supposed to do, like when they said no team had ever lost the last 3 games and gone to the SB. They say only 3% chance to make the playoffs so I guess we could break those odds.

I'm in law school, and one of the first things you learn about evidence is that just because MOST people act or perform a certain way is totally irrelevant to determining how this person did or will act.
In addition to that, this team, and the reasons it is 0-3, are completely unique in the history of the league, so the statistics don't even begin to apply.
We're in uncharted territory fellas, there is no way to know how this season turns out until January comes around.

FinSaint 09-25-2012 06:36 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by alexonfyre (Post 443138)
I'm in law school, and one of the first things you learn about evidence is that just because MOST people act or perform a certain way is totally irrelevant to determining how this person did or will act.


Well, that is pretty contrary to what, for example, psychology and sociology teach us.

Naturally you can't look at statistics and say with a 100% certainty that a certain person will act in a certain way in a certain situation based on, for example, some of his characteristics. But you can make an educated guess based on statistical probabilities based on previously gathered data(evidence) as to the likelihood of the said person acting in a certain way under certain circumstances.

I would think that the same principles could be applied to the science of law, and they are in a way, IMO, when a lawyer tries to convince the jury that they'd act in a same way, in the same type of a situation, and under the same circumstances as did the defendant. And, therefore, they should be lenient when deciding on the verdict. I mean in the end, it comes down to behavioral science, and in a way most of us are "programmed" by our society to act in a certain way in a certain situation, the "outliers" to this being sociopaths.

But I do agree with your assessment of the situation the Saints are in now, and the uniqueness of the situation does make making educated guesses based on statistical evidence very hard.

Furthermore, I confess that I know very little about how investigations into matters of the law are conducted, so I'm sure your statement above holds strength, at least how it pertains to the field of law.

alexonfyre 09-25-2012 07:04 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FinSaint (Post 443155)
Well, that is pretty contrary to what, for example, psychology and sociology teach us.

Naturally you can't look at statistics and say with a 100% certainty that a certain person will act in a certain way in a certain situation based on, for example, some of his characteristics. But you can make an educated guess based on statistical probabilities based on previously gathered data(evidence) as to the likelihood of the said person acting in a certain way under certain circumstances.

I would think that the same principles could be applied to the science of law, and they are in a way, IMO, when a lawyer tries to convince the jury that they'd act in a same way, in the same type of a situation, and under the same circumstances as did the defendant. And, therefore, they should be lenient when deciding on the verdict. I mean in the end, it comes down to behavioral science, and in a way most of us are "programmed" by our society to act in a certain way in a certain situation, the "outliers" to this being sociopaths.

But I do agree with your assessment of the situation the Saints are in now, and the uniqueness of the situation does make making educated guesses based on statistical evidence very hard.

And I confess that I know very little about how investigations into matters of the law are conducted, so I'm sure your statement above holds strength, at least how it pertains to the field of law.

I guess my point was a little bit lost:

My point was that the statistic means that 3% of TEAMS HAVE MADE IT to the playoffs from 0-3, not that THE 2012 SAINTS have a 3% CHANCE OF MAKING IT.

There is no such thing as a "CHANCE" of making the playoffs (outside of the betting world,) we don't spin a roulette wheel to determine the playoff teams. There are too many intervening factors to even make a relative guess at that until late in the season.
Then we have the "0-3" statistic, which encompasses way too many factors to be relevant to any team. By that statistic the Saints are exactly the same as the Cleveland Browns.

Stats that would be relevant to us would be "Avg. wins of a team with no head coach" ; "Avg wins of teams having 13 wins before going 0-3" or something similar.
It turns out they have looked at the last one by the way and it looks like about 6, but most of those teams suffered from a retirement or injury of key players, which is still similar to us, but not directly comparable.

In the law, past experiences and societal norms are relevant to discuss "reasonability" for certain issues like self-defense, but all these statistics would mean about the Saints is that it is not "unreasonable" to believe that they won't make the playoffs. However to say that a season is "over" after three games is equally unreasonable for the EXACT SAME REASON! If the season were over then how did the 95 Lions and the 98 Bills make it to the playoffs? And even if we lose to Green Bay, how is the season over if the 92 Chargers were able to make it to the playoffs from 0-4?

There is simply no rational way to put any team in or out of the playoffs at this point in the season (except the Browns, because they would have trouble winning a BCS championship this year.)

Danno 09-25-2012 07:06 PM

Re: Done
 
Check out the brain on Alex and Fin!!!

saintfan 09-25-2012 07:15 PM

Re: Done
 
How about this: The potential for an 0-3 team who is bad enough to actually go 0-3 could be less than some other team that wasn't bad enough to go 0-3?

:crazy:

burningmetal 09-25-2012 07:17 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RaginCajun83 (Post 442719)
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Until Drew is on IR this team still has fight in it. Let's see what Vitt can do before this season is considered lost besides the Packers don't look all that great this year

This is this the second time I've seen someone on here say the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. Is this some sort of inside joke I'm unaware of or do y'all not realize that Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?

burningmetal 09-25-2012 07:19 PM

Re: Done
 
Nevermind, apparently it is some sort of joke.

Danno 09-25-2012 07:24 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by burningmetal (Post 443174)
Nevermind, apparently it is some sort of joke.

See post #20. You must be very young.

skymike 09-25-2012 07:25 PM

Re: Done
 
danno, do you realize that was 30 years ago? wow!
theres an intern in the studio next door that doesnt know who HawkEye,
Radar, or Hot Lips are.

Danno 09-25-2012 07:27 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by skymike (Post 443180)
danno, do you realize that was 30 years ago? wow!
theres an intern in the studio next door that doesnt know who HawkEye,
Radar, or Hot Lips are.

Thanks a buttload Mike, I feel much better now. :rolleyes:

FinSaint 09-25-2012 07:28 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by alexonfyre (Post 443165)
I guess my point was a little bit lost:

My point was that the statistic means that 3% of TEAMS HAVE MADE IT to the playoffs from 0-3, not that THE 2012 SAINTS have a 3% CHANCE OF MAKING IT.

There is no such thing as a "CHANCE" of making the playoffs (outside of the betting world,) we don't spin a roulette wheel to determine the playoff teams. There are too many intervening factors to even make a relative guess at that until late in the season.
Then we have the "0-3" statistic, which encompasses way too many factors to be relevant to any team. By that statistic the Saints are exactly the same as the Cleveland Browns.

Stats that would be relevant to us would be "Avg. wins of a team with no head coach" ; "Avg wins of teams having 13 wins before going 0-3" or something similar.
It turns out they have looked at the last one by the way and it looks like about 6, but most of those teams suffered from a retirement or injury of key players, which is still similar to us, but not directly comparable.

In the law, past experiences and societal norms are relevant to discuss "reasonability" for certain issues like self-defense, but all these statistics would mean about the Saints is that it is not "unreasonable" to believe that they won't make the playoffs. However to say that a season is "over" after three games is equally unreasonable for the EXACT SAME REASON! If the season were over then how did the 95 Lions and the 98 Bills make it to the playoffs? And even if we lose to Green Bay, how is the season over if the 92 Chargers were able to make it to the playoffs from 0-4?

There is simply no rational way to put any team in or out of the playoffs at this point in the season (except the Browns, because they would have trouble winning a BCS championship this year.)



Yeah, like I said I agreed on your assessment of the Saints' situation. My issue, if it can even be called that, was with just the initial statement I quoted.

As for the cases you mentioned, like the '95 Lions and the '98 Bills etc., I don't think they really prove anything when it comes to purely statistical probabilities, because those cases would themselves probably be deemed as outliers because they stray so far from the probable statistical variation that can be expected based on the variables under consideration.

In statistics, it's very rare to get a probability value, which would mean that a certain outcome would be as likely to take place as would be its polar opposite - at least when we are considering multiple variables. So, in practice when dealing with more complex statistical calculations, we would in all likelihood get a probability value which would tell us that a certain outcome was the most probable to take place based on the data we have at our disposal, but with a certain built in standard deviation, and those outliers would not fit in to that standard deviation.

Naturally, the data we use can be faulty and/or the way we use that data can be equally faulty, so not all statistical probabilities are valid even though they might be supported by countless pages of mathematical evidence.

But I agree with you on that it's far too early to count out any team at this point in the season, because anything can happen as long as there is even a slight possibility of it happening.

Danno 09-25-2012 07:29 PM

Re: Done
 
I can say with a certainty of 97% (+/- 1.734%) that you two have major problems finding dates on the weekends.

FinSaint 09-25-2012 07:33 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 443185)
I can say with a certainty of 97% (+/- 1.734%) that you two have major problems finding dates on the weekends.


8 years and counting with the same woman, so I haven't had to find dates in a while, but I'm sure your calculations would be right on point if I was still single. :-)

burningmetal 09-25-2012 09:17 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 443179)
See post #20. You must be very young.

I did see that post, after I asked my question. That's why I said nevermind. I don't watch very many stupid 80's movies despite the fact I was born in that decade.

bobdog86 09-25-2012 09:36 PM

Re: Done
 
Dang, thats some fancy cyphering and word play you fellers are doing. Impressive. Blutto Blutarski for president!!

Pete 09-25-2012 09:45 PM

Re: Done
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by saintfan (Post 442755)
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? When did this happen? I mean, I'm not happy with our current state of foreign affairs, but I was not aware of this.

:lolup:


Pete 09-25-2012 09:49 PM

Re: Done
 
Danno beat me to it!:bng: I missed your post Danno.:smile:

You'll get No white flag from Pete!!

73Saint 09-25-2012 10:00 PM

Re: Done
 
My head is spinning with all the statistical talk.

SaintsBro 09-25-2012 10:14 PM

Re: Done
 
Mine too, but I am totally gonna steal this and use it on my friends:

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexonfyre (Post 443165)

My point was that the statistic means that 3% of TEAMS HAVE MADE IT to the playoffs from 0-3, not that THE 2012 SAINTS have a 3% CHANCE OF MAKING IT.

That really does sound more like what it is. Logically, etc.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:17 PM.


Copyright 1997 - 2018 - BlackandGold.com