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TheOak 11-01-2012 12:28 PM

Draft or Free Agency
 
This thread is for discussing our defense and whether to draft or find Free Agents. All sources cited.

Here are some rough stats from the 2012 draft round (keep in mind a good % of the reason is based on the drafting teams needs)

704 NFL Starters in 2012 (excluding Punters and kickers)
30-35 rookie starters for week 1
2-4 QB that will start their rookie season

A typical year for rookie starters is 3% a bad year is 2%
Rookie starters for 2012? Bengals, Bucs, Jags, Browns will have a few - NFL - CBSSports.com News, Rumors, Scores, Stats, Fantasy

I cant find a discussion on years it takes the average player to develop into a starter but it seems offensive players tend to start a lot sooner than defensive players.

Scott Shanle - 5th year before he was a starter (actually only the Saints thought he was a starter for more than 8 games) *mind blown*

Troy Polamalu - didn't start until his second year.

Darren Sharper - didn't start until his second year.

Jared Allen - didn't start more than 10 games until his second year.

Ok so on with the discussion. Why is everyone so concerned with what we draft? You draft when your average and want to add a player that makes you good... You don't turn to the draft when your dead last in the league and want to make your team average.... NEXT YEAR.

On offense we draft a Colston/Graham/Thomas and the next season they work out great... We do not want to have to wait until 2014 for a decent defense do we?

I am still very befuddled as to why we did not pick up Julius Peppers when we could have. That is the sort of talent that makes an impact NOW.

2013 DE free agents
2013 NFL Free Agent Tracker

2013 corner-back free agents
2013 NFL Free Agent Tracker

2013 Safety free agents
2013 NFL Free Agent Tracker

2013 Line Backer free agents
2013 NFL Free Agent Tracker

2013 defensive tackle free agents
2013 NFL Free Agent Tracker

Mardigras9 11-01-2012 12:53 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
I think the whole draft should be defensively driven.

Jamessr 11-01-2012 12:59 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
I agree the defense needs major help. The offense as it is blows anyone out if the water! We just need more help from the defense. We figure that out and we get our Coach back we're going to smash people. I hope Sean Payton runs up every score in every game next year.

TheOak 11-01-2012 02:05 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mardigras9 (Post 453637)
I think the whole draft should be defensively driven.

The entire FA should be Defensively driven. These are known products, that can deliver on day one....

Why would you want to draft for someone that probably will not be starter material for an entire season? Look as how well we have drafter defense in the last few years... You want more of that?

With the exception or all star caliber Rookies, you draft projects and trade material. You get the rest from free agency when you are in the position we are in.

Free Agency impact players on Defense: (immediate impact)
Curtis Lofton
Darren Sharper
Johnathan Vilma

Offense:
Drew Brees
Darren Sproles

We need week 1 starters on Defense.

Utah_Saint 11-01-2012 02:19 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
I think fixing this defense will take a combination of Free Agency and the draft. There are so many positions that need talent. Unfortunately, the Saints will be way over the salary cap next year so the odd of bringing in a star through free agency seem pretty slim.

All that being said, they do need some depth (or even a starter) at the tackle position as well. So they can't completely ignore the offense either.

The Saints are gonna be in a tough spot with so many needs and so little money. Mickey's gonna have to pull of some minor miracles this offseason.

Thanks for posting those links. Those are really handy. Looks like there's some big named FA next season.

TheOak 11-01-2012 03:15 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
The entire defense needs to go on the wire.

With the exception of maybe 3-4...

Our cap situation is not that bad... 53 means in order to bring someone in... someone has to go and they take their cap hit with them.

lee909 11-01-2012 03:40 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Draft draft the entire Alabama Defense.

FinSaint 11-01-2012 04:56 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
I voted for the "defense will come around..." option purely based on the amusement it invoked inside of me. :-D

BTW, Thomas was an UDFA, so the Saints didn't draft him.

dizzle88 11-01-2012 05:00 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Will smith, Sed Ellis, Vilma, Shanle will probably be released after this season

Hopefully it should free up atleast a bit of space for some defensive improvements

Draft will make more of an impact due to the salary cap being close

FinSaint 11-01-2012 05:02 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by x626xBlack (Post 453655)
The entire defense needs to go on the wire.

With the exception of maybe 3-4...

Our cap situation is not that bad... 53 means in order to bring someone in... someone has to go and they take their cap hit with them.


Except for the remaining guaranteed money left on their contract, which will count towards the salary cap even after they've gone.

FinSaint 11-01-2012 05:06 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dizzle88 (Post 453669)
Will smith, Sed Ellis, Vilma, Shanle will probably be released after this season

Hopefully it should free up atleast a bit of space for some defensive improvements

Draft will make more of an impact due to the salary cap being close


Ellis' and Shanle's contracts are up, so they are automatically out of the picture.

I'm not sure how the re-structuring affected the guaranteed money on both of Smith's and Vilma's contracts, so they might be too expensive to cut outright and too overpaid for some other team to be interested in a trade.

Utah_Saint 11-01-2012 05:35 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by x626xBlack (Post 453655)
The entire defense needs to go on the wire.

With the exception of maybe 3-4...

Our cap situation is not that bad... 53 means in order to bring someone in... someone has to go and they take their cap hit with them.

I'm not sure how the contrats of Vilma and Smith are counting against the salary cap. With neither counting against the cap, the Saints were 8 million under, but with both counting against the cap, The Saints were about a million under. Where ever that figure is between there, can be applied to next years cap.

BUT

they have lots of contracts that jump up next year. Most notably Drew's 7 million dollar increase, and there's quite a few more...

Brodrick Bunkley ($3 million salary jump)
Marques Colston ($3.3 million salary jump)
Jahri Evans ($6.5 million salary jump)
Jabari Greer ($1 million salary jump)
Ben Grubbs ($4.5 million salary jump)
Malcolm Jenkins ($1.2 million salary jump)
Curtis Lofton (only a 400k salary jump, for another $1 million cap hit in roster bonus)
David Hawthorne (same situation as Lofton, about $1 million extra cap hit in 2013 due to bonuses)
Lance Moore ($1.7 million salary jump)
Will Smith ($8 million salary jump)
Jonathan Vilma ($3 million salary jump)

As it sits right now, the Saints are more than $20 million over the cap for 2013.

Mickey's got his work cut out for him this offseason.

jeanpierre 11-01-2012 09:08 PM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Got to cut bait with the defensive line and go proven Free Agency...

Sedrick Ellis comes off the books after this season...

Will Smith scheduled to earn 9 and 10.4 next two seasons, with age and decline of play (it wasn't good to begin with) it's time to take the salary hit and move on...

Cam Jordan in his rookie contract would stay on...

Akem Hicks has a favorable contract and has shown some liveliness...

Martez Wilson can fly, he just needs development at DE now and has the contract for it - though he's better suited as a 3-4 OLB and if Spags doesn't stay, he may factor in a change in defensive philosophy to a 3-4 alignment...

Vilma looks done - his degenerative knee condition surely limited his ceiling...

Lofton has shown a lotta heart and has shown more flexibility in different alignments than expected...

Shanle may be done playing after his contract expires...

Hawthorne has gotta get healthy and on the field to eval...

Harper will be earning over five million in the next two seasons; regardless he's gotta go...

Jenkins probably should be playing SS or RCB; he lacks the leadership and awareness to run the secondary...

Greer can't play a full season...

Robinson seems like a one step fwd, two steps back career; he's made some terrific plays but seems like he's thinking too much and not just playing ball...

Johnny Patrick has staying healthy concerns...

Corey White has played like a rookie, jury still out...

lee909 11-02-2012 04:36 AM

Them salaries do not make good reading.Graham needs a new contract soon aswell.Loomis has a lot of work on his plate getting shed of players and salary that don't look tradable.

FinSaint 11-02-2012 06:22 AM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jeanpierre (Post 453719)
Got to cut bait with the defensive line and go proven Free Agency...


Harper will be earning over five million in the next two seasons; regardless he's gotta go...



The thing there is that Harper is still owed $6M in guaranteed money after this season, so when his cap hit for next season is $7.1M - it's hard to see a real benefit in cutting him and taking the cap hit. I wouldn't be against releasing him if the Saints could find a better player to replace him, with the remaining $1.1M, but that is very unlikely to happen.

But, I guess, there could be a team out there who'd maybe be willing to trade for Harper's ability to come of the line in blitzing situations - or his sack numbers alone - and that would be a much better option for the Saints.


One other problem with the salary situation is that the Saints need a new LT for next season, because Bushrod will in all likelihood be looking for a salary increase, although he shouldn't, and in any case they need an upgrade in that position. LTs don't come cheap, and the only cheaper option that comes to mind is to pick a rookie LT early in the next draft, but the Saints also need every single pick available to get defensive players.

It'll sure be an interesting offseason, and Loomis' skills will be tested once again.

TheOak 11-02-2012 06:56 AM

Re: Draft of Free Agency
 
Salaries are MOOT when cutting and getting rid of players, Guaranteed money stays like herpes.

lsutigerfan 11-02-2012 10:38 AM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
This is who I want to draft. Bjoern Werner



Jamessr 11-02-2012 10:40 AM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Wait... we're actually paying these guys on defense millions of dollars?
WTF that makes it even worse... I thought this was volunteers to compensate for Drew's paycheck

Rugby Saint II 11-02-2012 12:09 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
With the salary restrictions for draft picks we should know about what each player should cost us that we draft. Cut or trade every player that is sub par.
With the money left over hit free agency hard. Sign a couple of impact players and surround them with draft picks who can learn a system and grow.

TheOak 11-02-2012 01:19 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Hopefully we take into account how well the draftee played defense in college in a ZONE!

Danno 11-03-2012 08:21 AM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by x626xBlack (Post 453860)
Hopefully we take into account how well the draftee played defense in college in a ZONE!

Good point, although I have mixed feelings about that. On one hand, you take the best player on the board over and over and eventually you end up with superior talent.

But teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore draft players that fit their style (scheme, system, personality or whatever) and they stay competitive year in and year out.

One thing I noticed is we don't really draft for system. Martez Wilson was a MLB that some said could be a stand up DE/OLB in a 3-4. He wasn't really a great fit for our system.

Cam Jordan makes a fine LDE, but many have suggested he's probably better suited for a 3-4 DE.

We brought in Franklin last year who did well as a 3-4 NT, and tried to make him a 4-3 DT.

David Hawthorne was a MLB, we sign him to play outside.

I'll be disappointed if we decide to stick to a 4-3 yet sign/draft a tweener best suited for DE/OLB in a 3-4.

It may be time to narrow the focus a bit and identify some players that fit our scheme and our needs. We just need to be careful and not reach for a need.

Crusader 11-03-2012 06:09 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lsutigerfan (Post 453817)
This is who I want to draft. Bjoern Werner


FSU Bjoern Werner 2011 Highlights - YouTube

Agreed! Always go for the european guy!

saintsfan1976 11-04-2012 10:29 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
3 DC's in the past 5 years could be to blame for "not fitting the right scheme"...

TheOak 11-05-2012 07:18 AM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 453966)
Good point, although I have mixed feelings about that. On one hand, you take the best player on the board over and over and eventually you end up with superior talent.

But teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore draft players that fit their style (scheme, system, personality or whatever) and they stay competitive year in and year out.

One thing I noticed is we don't really draft for system. Martez Wilson was a MLB that some said could be a stand up DE/OLB in a 3-4. He wasn't really a great fit for our system.

Cam Jordan makes a fine LDE, but many have suggested he's probably better suited for a 3-4 DE.

We brought in Franklin last year who did well as a 3-4 NT, and tried to make him a 4-3 DT.

David Hawthorne was a MLB, we sign him to play outside.

I'll be disappointed if we decide to stick to a 4-3 yet sign/draft a tweener best suited for DE/OLB in a 3-4.

It may be time to narrow the focus a bit and identify some players that fit our scheme and our needs. We just need to be careful and not reach for a need.

I think we have failed epically to fully account for the change in the game. There used to be a time when a mediocre Safety was all you needed, and damned good LBs were the strong suit of the defense.. This has become a passing league... We don't need epic LBs anymore, we need an epic (big play maker) safety... Our success in 2009 was a testament to how valuable a big play maker safety who can produce is to a defense.

Safety's are not just defensive play callers anymore.

hagan714 11-05-2012 09:40 AM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Protecting a 10 MILLION dollar investment is priority #1

The saints are driven to prove Ingram was the right pick

Problem with the OL they are a few pieces away from doing the two goals the saints front office wants to do.

FA does not seem to have the answers in my book. The draft is deep in RT this year and that is were i see or hope the saints drafting early.

On the defensive side of the ball the saints need a few pieces here and there and places i can not say.

WDE Will Smith and WLB is still the side of field teams run at, screen at and dump off in game in and game out for a few years now. No i will not talk about Wilson here but lol.

DE looks good in the draft but the saints will need to trade down to address both offense needs and defensive needs as we all know.

in FA i am watching these two young players

Terrance Knighton (JAC) - NT - get run stuffer
Israel Idonije (CHI) - DT - solid pass rusher at DT or DE

tough call right now but the saints must do a few things and i am going to start with the front office here. stop putting round pegs in a square hole. it aint working already.

SapperSaint 11-05-2012 12:53 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
This all makes me want to vomit in my pockets!

Rugby Saint II 11-05-2012 01:43 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SapperSaint (Post 454397)
This all makes me want to vomit in my pockets!

Your bunny outfit has pockets? :p

TheOak 11-05-2012 01:47 PM

Re: Draft or Free Agency
 
That bunny outfit has holes in the pockets.

No comment on the carrot


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