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swampwiz 12-16-2012 09:29 PM

Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)

NO -> DAL
NO -> CAR
WAS -> DAL
BAL -> NYG
PHI -> NYG
HOU -> MIN
GB -> MIN
AZ -> CHI
DET -> CHI

and also either one of:

TB -> STL
SEA -> STL

If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8:

NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN

with the possibility also of TB being 8-8.

For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus

NO beats out TB because of head to head

DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

So then there would be a tie breaker for:

NO, DAL, MIN

and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be:

NO - 6-6
MIN - 6-6
DAL - 5-7

which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker then between NO & MIN being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as:

NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3
MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4

thus NO would beat out MIN.

I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker.

It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games.

I welcome any critique of my analysis.

saintsfan1976 12-16-2012 09:45 PM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
Welcome aboard. I hope you're right

G504 12-16-2012 09:55 PM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
It would be sooooooo sweet if we snatched a playoff spot from Minny on a tie-breaker. They did that to use twice in the early 2000s!

arsaint 12-16-2012 10:12 PM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
Or said in reverse...

Saints Elimination Options



Case #4 is probably the one that gets us next week...

44Champs 12-16-2012 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampwiz (Post 465719)
I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)

NO -> DAL
NO -> CAR
WAS -> DAL
BAL -> NYG
PHI -> NYG
HOU -> MIN
GB -> MIN
AZ -> CHI
DET -> CHI

and also either one of:

TB -> STL
SEA -> STL

If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8:

NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN

with the possibility also of TB being 8-8.

For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus

NO beats out TB because of head to head

DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

So then there would be a tie breaker for:

NO, DAL, MIN

and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be:

NO - 6-6
MIN - 6-6
DAL - 5-7

which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as:

NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3
MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4

thus NO would beat out MIN.

I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker.

It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games.

I welcome any critique of my analysis.

Damn - can you come over and untangle a bunch of christmas lights for me?

lynwood 12-16-2012 10:50 PM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
Good Grief!

cmsaint 12-16-2012 11:24 PM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
Brees' post game comments seemed to confirm we are already out of it. At least to him. He said something along the lines of 'even though that SB trophy may not be ours this year, we still have a a lot to play for'

Still mathematically alive Drew! Lol

foreverfan 12-16-2012 11:40 PM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
Practically a cake walk.

burningmetal 12-17-2012 12:59 AM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
A lot of the help we would need is actually quite realistic, with the exceptions of the Eagles over the Giants, and both Arizona and Detroit beating Chicago. Those 3 games aren't as likely, but not at all impossible. The Giants got shut out today by the Falcons of all teams (the first team to make Atlanta look like a division winner) and the Bears aren't playing much better than their upcoming opponents.

It is a TON of things that need to go our way, so I really have no expectation that it will all happen. But I was looking at some of these schedules yesterday and was surprised that there is even a slim chance. Wasn't sure we'd win another game after last week's debacle, but today was quite a performance.

NOS2SB 12-17-2012 01:34 AM

Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario
 
Somebody give me six numbers to the powerball this week.


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