Go Back   New Orleans Saints - blackandgold.com > Main > Saints
Shop Horizontal

Here is the Saints playoff scenario

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L) NO -> DAL NO -> CAR WAS -> DAL ...

Like Tree10Likes

Closed Thread
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-16-2012, 08:29 PM   #1
Rookie
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 6
Here is the Saints playoff scenario

I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)

NO -> DAL
NO -> CAR
WAS -> DAL
BAL -> NYG
PHI -> NYG
HOU -> MIN
GB -> MIN
AZ -> CHI
DET -> CHI

and also either one of:

TB -> STL
SEA -> STL

If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8:

NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN

with the possibility also of TB being 8-8.

For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus

NO beats out TB because of head to head

DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

So then there would be a tie breaker for:

NO, DAL, MIN

and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be:

NO - 6-6
MIN - 6-6
DAL - 5-7

which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker then between NO & MIN being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as:

NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3
MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4

thus NO would beat out MIN.

I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker.

It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games.

I welcome any critique of my analysis.
swampwiz is offline  
Latest Blogs
The ArtiChoke Last Blog: 09-18-2014 By: Barry from MS


How to really handle Ray Rice and AP Last Blog: 09-17-2014 By: neugey


The Lost Art of the Trade Last Blog: 08-30-2014 By: jeanpierre


Old 12-16-2012, 08:45 PM   #2
Site Donor
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 5,506
Blog Entries: 4
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

Welcome aboard. I hope you're right
saintsfan1976 is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 08:55 PM   #3
100th Post
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Miami
Posts: 424
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

It would be sooooooo sweet if we snatched a playoff spot from Minny on a tie-breaker. They did that to use twice in the early 2000s!
G504 is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 09:12 PM   #4
Saint Historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: deep in the bowels of a hidden bunker, somewhere under the brick & steel of a nondescript building..
Posts: 1,706
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

Or said in reverse...

Saints Elimination Options



Case #4 is probably the one that gets us next week...
SmashMouth likes this.
arsaint is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 09:36 PM   #5
Site Donor
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 793
Originally Posted by swampwiz View Post
I've done an analysis on the Saints' chances of making the playoffs. Amazingly they are still alive, but to get in, the following games MUST go these ways: (W -> L)

NO -> DAL
NO -> CAR
WAS -> DAL
BAL -> NYG
PHI -> NYG
HOU -> MIN
GB -> MIN
AZ -> CHI
DET -> CHI

and also either one of:

TB -> STL
SEA -> STL

If all this happens, then these teams would all be 8-8:

NO, DAL, NYG, CHI, MIN

with the possibility also of TB being 8-8.

For the wild-card spot, first ties are broken within each division, thus

NO beats out TB because of head to head

DAL beats out NYG because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

MIN beats out CHI because of division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

So then there would be a tie breaker for:

NO, DAL, MIN

and since all these teams have not played (and thus not even the possibility of beating or having been beaten by the other teams), and the next tie breaker of common games is not applicable because there must be at least 4 such games (and there are not), the next tie breaker is conference record in which there would be:

NO - 6-6
MIN - 6-6
DAL - 5-7

which would eliminate DAL, with the highest tie breaker being common games (of which there would be 5 such games), with the record as:

NO - GB (L), TB (W,W), WAS (L), SF (L) = 2-3
MIN - GB (L,L), TB (L), WAS (L), SF (W) = 1-4

thus NO would beat out MIN.

I noticed that someone had posted within an earlier thread the possibility of WAS losing 2 games. For that scenario to play out, it would mean that WAS & NYG would be in contention for the last wild-card spot, and in which WAS would beat out NYG due to a better division record. thus a 3-way tie between NO, WAS & MIN. Unfortunately, WAS has beaten both NO & MIN, so WAS would win the tie-breaker.

It should be noted that WAS & DAL have a game against each other left, so it is impossible for both to lose all their remaining games.

I welcome any critique of my analysis.
Damn - can you come over and untangle a bunch of christmas lights for me?
44Champs is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 09:50 PM   #6
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Hockley, Tx
Posts: 1,458
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

Good Grief!
lynwood is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 10:24 PM   #7
100th Post
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Atlanta :/
Posts: 120
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

Brees' post game comments seemed to confirm we are already out of it. At least to him. He said something along the lines of 'even though that SB trophy may not be ours this year, we still have a a lot to play for'

Still mathematically alive Drew! Lol
cmsaint is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 10:40 PM   #8
Site Donor 2014
Lucky Cat
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Metairie, LA
Posts: 8,410
Blog Entries: 5
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

Practically a cake walk.
foreverfan is offline  
Old 12-16-2012, 11:59 PM   #9
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,063
Blog Entries: 2
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

A lot of the help we would need is actually quite realistic, with the exceptions of the Eagles over the Giants, and both Arizona and Detroit beating Chicago. Those 3 games aren't as likely, but not at all impossible. The Giants got shut out today by the Falcons of all teams (the first team to make Atlanta look like a division winner) and the Bears aren't playing much better than their upcoming opponents.

It is a TON of things that need to go our way, so I really have no expectation that it will all happen. But I was looking at some of these schedules yesterday and was surprised that there is even a slim chance. Wasn't sure we'd win another game after last week's debacle, but today was quite a performance.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.
burningmetal is offline  
Old 12-17-2012, 12:34 AM   #10
Shampoo
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Heidelberg, Germany
Posts: 451
Re: Here is the Saints playoff scenario

Somebody give me six numbers to the powerball this week.
NOS2SB is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules

LinkBacks (?)
LinkBack to this Thread: http://blackandgold.com/saints/53823-here-saints-playoff-scenario.html
Posted By For Type Date Hits
Chat - cznfl.com This thread Refback 12-17-2012 01:02 AM 1
cznfl.com - ?esko-slovenské fórum o NFL a Americkém fotbale • Obsah This thread Refback 12-17-2012 12:00 AM 11
The Latest New Orleans Saints News | SportSpyder This thread Refback 12-16-2012 10:01 PM 2
Here is the Saints playoff scenario This thread Refback 12-16-2012 08:53 PM 104


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:08 PM.


Copyright 1997 - 2013 - BlackandGold.com
no new posts