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Stealthman 12-18-2012 07:11 PM

NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
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If you are shocked that the Saints are “technically” mathematically STILL-IN-CONTENTION for a playoff spot… welcome to the club! How is that possible, you ask? Well, the NFL has a very complicated formula that I’ll start this week’s column with that info. But make no mistake about it… the chances are razor-thin: NFC Playoff Picture This is somewhat of a LONG READ, so grab a cup of coffee, or a brewski, and buckle your seat belt. Here goes:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
*****There are more tiebreaking factors, but let’s STOP with the ones above.*****

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
With that, we will need the following to take place in order for the Saints to make the #6 seed in the playoffs:

1. Bears need to lose out to the Cardinals and Lions.
2. Redskins need to win-out.
3. Cowboys need to lose out to Saints & Redskins.
4. Giants need to lose out to Ravens and Eagles.
5. Vikings need to lose out to Texans and Packers.
6. Rams need to lose at least one of their remaining two games.
Head spinning yet? Well, here we go:

Thursday December 22nd

Week 16, Game 1: Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)
a. Why is it important: Falcons are seeking #1 seed in NFC playoffs.
b.. Desired outcome: Pull for the Lions to lose. In the event the Saints find a way to sneak into the playoffs, they would rather play the Falcons in the Divisional round (after, hopefully, winning on the road in the Wildcard round). This is a tricky game for the Falcons, who are coming off an emotional win vs. the Giants. I would not be shocked at a Lions’ upset, but it is not likely..
c.. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 6 out of 10

Sunday December 16th

Week 16, Game 2: Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
a. Why is it important: Panthers currently in LAST place in the NFC South, and the Saints want them to stay there.
b.. Desired outcome: Pull for the Raiders.
c.. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 4 out of 10; Panthers play well at home.

Week 16, Game 3: Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)
N/A: AFC opponents. Reggie Bush is 105 yds. away from reaching the 1000 yds. rushing mark for the 2nd consecutive season. Congrats to “Baby Matrix.”

Week 16, Game 4: Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
N/A: AFC opponents.

Week 16, Game 5: Patriots (10-4) @ Jaguars (2-12)
N/A: AFC opponents

Week 16, Game 6: Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)
N/A: AFC opponents

Week 16, Game 7: Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)

a. Why is it important: Regardless of the playoff scenario, the Saints want to FINISH STRONG. That means winning the remaining 2 games and ending the regular season at 8-8. Now, having said that, the Saints would welcome any and ALL help from other teams in order to sneak into the postseason. They can help themselves to that end by knocking-off the Cowboys.
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Saints.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 5.5 out of 10. If the Saints rush the ball at least 20 times and have no turnovers… they should win this game.

Week 16, Game 8: Redskins (8-6 ) @ Eagles (4-10)

a. Why is it important: The Saints’ slim playoff chances hinge on the Redskins capturing the NFC East crown. That starts with a win vs. the Eagles. Cousins may start for the Redskins, although RG-III is getting healthier (knee) each week.
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Redskins.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 6 out of 10

Week 16, Game 9: Rams (6-7-1) @ Buccaneers (6-8)
a. Why is it important: The Rams are also vying for a playoff spot via #6 wildcard spot. In order for our beloved Saints to have a chance to gain the #6 seed, the Rams have to lose one of their remaining two games. Given the fact that the Buccaneers were utterly embarrassed by the Saints last week, they should be ready to have a monster game vs. the Rams (and the Bucs are playing at home).
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Buccaneers.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 6 out of 10

Week 16, Game 10: Chargers (5-9) @ Jets (6-8)
N/A: AFC opponents

Week 16, Game 11: Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)

a. Why is it important: Packers seeking to have the #1 seed (or, at least a 1st round bye).
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Titans. If the 49’ers or Seahawks get a 1st round bye as the #2 seed, the Saints would play at Lambeau field in the first round of the playoffs. I like our chances of going to Lambeau (first round), then going to the Georgia Dome (2nd round). Wow… I’m talking as if the Saints already made the playoffs. Sorry, folks… I got carried away. But I have visions of sugarbowls dancing in my head.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 3.5 out of 10

Week 16, Game 12: Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2)

a. Why is it important: The Minnesota Vikings are another team that needs to lose their remaining two games for the Saints to make it into the postseason. I feel better about this game since the Vikings are playing at Houston.
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Texans.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 6 out of 10

Week 16, Game 13: Browns (5-9) @ Broncos (11-3)
N/A: AFC opponents

Week 16, Game 14: Bears (8-6) @ Cardinals (5-9)
a. Why is it important: Here again we have ANOTHER team that needs to lose their remaining two games for the Saints to have a shot at the postseason. The Cardinals WON last week, snapping a nine game losing streak. They are stoked!
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Cardinals. The Bears are reeling, and the Cardinals are fired-up for getting that losing streak monkey off their backs. Now, the return to a home crowd that should have them playing an inspired game. The Bears are a good team (despite injuries), and it won’t be easy for the Cardinals to pull the upset. But I like their chances this week for the reasons I mentioned earlier.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 5.5 out of 10

Week 16, Game 15: Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5)

a. Why is it important: Yes… yet another team that the Saints need to lose-out, and finish the regular season at 8-8. Even though the Giants won the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Saints, the rules are DIFFERENT when you have a 4-way tie (see rules at the beginning of this thread). If it all shakes-out, the Saints may have a shot at the postseason. We’ll see!
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Ravens. Baltimore already has the AFC North title, and may not play all of their starters. Let’s hope they are competitive at home, and don’t “give away” this one to the Giants.
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: 5.5 out of 10

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Week 16, Game 16: 49’ers (10-3-1) @ Seahawks (9-5)

a. Why is it important: Both teams are vying for 1st place in the NFC West.
b. Desired outcome: Pull for the Seahawks. If the Saints (somehow) sneak into the playoffs, we’d want the Packers in round 1, and the Falcons to have a 1st round bye with the #1 seed. That would put the Saints vs. the Falcons in the Divisional round (i.e.: Week-2 of the playoffs) …should the Saints win in the Wildcard round. Yes, yes… I know: We have to make the playoffs first, and right now the Fat Lady is getting ready to sing. But hey… let’s hope to hit the inside straight!
c. Confidence factor for a good outcome: This should be a VERY competitive game. It will be hard-hitting, and although I NEVER hope serious injury occurs to any player… both teams may need a M.A.S.H. unit after this one!

News from Enemy Camps (Week15):
NFC South Leader (Falcons): Atlanta Falcons Rumors: Pro Sports Daily
NFC East Leader (Redskins): Washington Redskins Rumors: Pro Sports Daily
NFC North Leader (Packers): Green Bay Packers Rumors: Pro Sports Daily
NFC West Leader: (49’ers): San Francisco 49ers Rumors: Pro Sports Daily

arsaint 12-18-2012 09:16 PM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
One minor correction...

Baltimore does not have the AFC North yet - they need one more win (so hopefully they come to play).

If they were to lose out and the Steelers win out, the Steelers are the AFC North champ.

Stealthman 12-19-2012 06:10 AM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by arsaint (Post 466403)
One minor correction...

Baltimore does not have the AFC North yet - they need one more win (so hopefully they come to play).

If they were to lose out and the Steelers win out, the Steelers are the AFC North champ.

True; good catch. I recalled (incorrectly) that the Ravens had swept the Steelers.

This means that the Ravens should come ready to play ...especially in their own house!

Thanks, bro.

:bng:

Stealthman 12-19-2012 08:42 AM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
WWL "Fan Chat" starts off their V-log with a question about the playoffs.

Playoffs, playoffs????

Click here is embedded not working: wwltv.com | New Orleans Saints News, Schedule, Videos - WWLTV.com

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:bng:

Mardigras9 12-19-2012 09:42 AM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
That's really not too far from possible except for the Giants losing the last two. I don't think that is likely.

SaintnDE 12-19-2012 10:57 AM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
I'm confused:

Bears need to lose out to the Cardinals and Lions

b.. Desired outcome: Pull for the Lions to lose. In the event the Saints find a way to sneak into the playoffs, they would rather play the Falcons in the Divisional round (after, hopefully, winning on the road in the Wildcard round). This is a tricky game for the Falcons, who are coming off an emotional win vs. the Giants. I would not be shocked at a Lions’ upset, but it is not likely..

Stealthman 12-19-2012 11:24 AM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SaintnDE (Post 466520)
I'm confused:

Bears need to lose out to the Cardinals and Lions

b.. Desired outcome: Pull for the Lions to lose. In the event the Saints find a way to sneak into the playoffs, they would rather play the Falcons in the Divisional round (after, hopefully, winning on the road in the Wildcard round). This is a tricky game for the Falcons, who are coming off an emotional win vs. the Giants. I would not be shocked at a Lions’ upset, but it is not likely..

This week, we want the Lions to lose (to the Falcons). I can't bring myself to say "...Falcons to win."

It is NEXT week that we want the Bears to lose to the Lions.

:bng:

UK_WhoDat 12-19-2012 02:49 PM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
Thanks again, Stealh!!!!


http://fitsit360.com/wp-content/uplo...1/07/dizzy.jpg

Stealthman 12-20-2012 11:27 AM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by UK_WhoDat (Post 466579)

When the Saints made #6 seed at the end of the 2000 season, they won it on the last game of the season (in the Superdome) with Morten Anderson FG at the end of the game.

The last game of this sesaon is at home, but we're gonna need a lot of help to get that last playoff spot. Not likely... but it's still possible.

:bng:

UK_WhoDat 12-20-2012 12:41 PM

Re: NFC Contenders' Corner (Playoff Contenders Info) Week 16
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stealthman (Post 466728)
... Not likely... but it's still possible.

:bng:

Don't care about not likely.
Whilst it is still possible, then it is. :itsgood:


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