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Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by Danno So I'll put down Saintfan, Oak and QBREES on record claiming that draft success doesn't matter. This will be a lot of fun for the next several weeks. I didn't say draft success doesn't matter. I ...

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Old 02-20-2013, 02:27 PM   #31
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

Originally Posted by Danno View Post
So I'll put down Saintfan, Oak and QBREES on record claiming that draft success doesn't matter.

This will be a lot of fun for the next several weeks.
I didn't say draft success doesn't matter. I said getting it right is a crap shoot. It is a crap shoot. I will say a successful draft does not a winner make. It's part of the puzzle - nothing more and nothing less.

And it's a crap shoot.
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Old 02-20-2013, 02:28 PM   #32
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

You know what would be pretty cool... if team revealed their draft boards afterwards. Don't really care to see the entire thing... just at that curent pick, give us the names of the 3 players they were seriously considering at the time. Would to fun to speculate what could have been or whether or not we completely dropped the ball at the time.

Pipe dream... I know.
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Old 02-20-2013, 02:33 PM   #33
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

Originally Posted by saintfan View Post
I didn't say draft success doesn't matter. I said getting it right is a crap shoot. It is a crap shoot. I will say a successful draft does not a winner make. It's part of the puzzle - nothing more and nothing less.

And it's a crap shoot.
I disagree so completely it astounds me. I think there definitely are certain teams and certain scouts that are better at spotting and drafting talent than others. Its why teams invest so much money in scouting. I'm dumbfounded someone would think its the equivalent of drawing names out of a hat.

If it was a crap shoot no team would invest money on scouting, or going to the combine or going to pro-days.

To say its all just a crap shoot is the epitome of shortsightedness.

I'm beginning to think we have the most uninformed fans in the league.
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Old 02-20-2013, 02:36 PM   #34
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

Saints are an offensive football team so of course the scouts would find more talent on that side of the ball and not so much on defense. Look at the Steelers, they have hit on a bunch of defensive players but have struck out on offensive and offensive linemen like its going out of style
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Old 02-20-2013, 02:39 PM   #35
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

And who ever thinks that the draft is a crap shoot needs to get their head examined. There's a reason why some teams pick in the top 5-10 year after year, they can't scout and either reach or miss on players that were "sure" things
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Old 02-20-2013, 03:01 PM   #36
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

I suddenly have a feeling several of you bastads are just jerking my chain.
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Old 02-20-2013, 03:14 PM   #37
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

Originally Posted by Danno View Post
I disagree so completely it astounds me. I think there definitely are certain teams and certain scouts that are better at spotting and drafting talent than others. Its why teams invest so much money in scouting. I'm dumbfounded someone would think its the equivalent of drawing names out of a hat.

If it was a crap shoot no team would invest money on scouting, or going to the combine or going to pro-days.

To say its all just a crap shoot is the epitome of shortsightedness.

I'm beginning to think we have the most uninformed fans in the league.
Dude. Read my initial post. I concede that some teams are better than others. That's my blackjack analogy. Certainly some blackjack players are better than others and are therefore less likely to get taken to the bank. That doesn't change the fact that it's still a gamble.

In spite of all the money and effort that goes into it, it's still a gamble. It always has been and it always will be, because all the measurables do not equate to success for a given player. There are a gazillion examples of this.

You may call me uninformed. I'm quite well informed. I'm also a realist. If the performance of a player were so easily predictable, we'd see far fewer busts. But we don't. It happens every year, and even the best and most well-respected people who are completely up to speed on every player's measurables will disagree on draft day.

Maybe you prefer the term "calculated gamble"? Regardless is it far Far FAR from anything that remotely resembles an exact science. It's - A - Crap - Shoot. Period.

Or maybe you can tell me who's the best at it and why? I'm definitely interested...

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Old 02-20-2013, 03:24 PM   #38
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

Originally Posted by saintfan View Post
Dude. Read my initial post. I concede that some teams are better than others. That's my blackjack analogy. Certainly some blackjack players are better than others and are therefore less likely to get taken to the bank. That doesn't change the fact that it's still a gamble.

In spite of all the money and effort that goes into it, it's still a gamble. It always has been and it always will be, because all the measurables do not equate to success for a given player. There are a gazillion examples of this.

You may call me uninformed. I'm quite well informed. I'm also a realist. If the performance of a player were so easily predictable, we'd see far fewer busts. But we don't. It happens every year, and even the best and most well-respected people who are completely up to speed on every player's measurables will disagree on draft day.

Maybe you prefer the term "calculated gamble"? Regardless is it far Far FAR from anything that remotely resembles an exact science. It's - A - Crap - Shoot. Period.

Or maybe you can tell me who's the best at it and why? I'm definitely interested...
I would assume the best at it are the ones that year in and year out hit on their picks. And I'd guess their scouts are rewarded accordingly

I'd also imagine that the ones who suck at it year in and year out don't last long in this league.

My point was other than 2006, it appears we suck at it more than most teams. I only did one comparison with Atlanta and they have had 3 times the success we've had drafting talent.

I'd imagine that having over 1/2 your draft picks fail is a decent indicator that you suck at drafting, especially compared to your rival that has a roster full of successful draftees. The comparison between the F'cons draft success and ours isn't even close. In fact its downright embarrassing.

Swap Ryan and Brees and we're a perinneal 7 win team and they're bumping 13 to 14 wins every year with 3 or 4 championships under their belt.
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Old 02-20-2013, 03:38 PM   #39
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

I don't know. Atlanta appears to have just as many misses as we have since 2006.

2012 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 55 Peter Konz G Wisconsin
3 91 Lamar Holmes T Southern Mississippi
5 157 Bradie Ewing RB Wisconsin
5 164 Jonathan Massaquoi DE Troy
6 192 Charles Mitchell SS Mississippi State
7 249 Travian Robertson NT South Carolina
2011 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 6 Julio Jones WR Alabama
3 91 Akeem Dent LB Georgia
5 145 Jacquizz Rodgers RB Oregon State
6 192 Matt Bosher P Miami (Fla.)
7 210 Andrew Jackson G Fresno State
7 230 Cliff Matthews DE South Carolina
2010 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 19 Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
3 83 Corey Peters DT Kentucky
3 98 Mike Johnson G Alabama
4 117 Joe Hawley C Nevada-Las Vegas
5 135 Dominique Franks DB Oklahoma
5 165 Kerry Meier WR Kansas
6 171 Shann Schillinger DB Montana
2009 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 24 Peria Jerry DT Mississippi
2 55 William Moore DB Missouri
3 90 Chris Owens DB San Jose State
4 125 Lawrence Sidbury DE Richmond
5 138 William Middleton DB Furman
5 156 Garrett Reynolds T North Carolina
6 176 Spencer Adkins LB Miami (Fla.)
7 210 Vance Walker DT Georgia Tech
2008 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College
1 21 Sam Baker T USC
2 37 Curtis Lofton MLB Oklahoma
3 68 Chevis Jackson CB Louisiana State
3 84 Harry Douglas WR Louisville
3 98 Thomas DeCoud FS California
5 138 Robert James MLB Arizona State
5 154 Kroy Biermann DE Montana
6 172 Thomas Brown RB Georgia
7 212 Wilrey Fontenot CB Arizona
7 232 Keith Zinger TE Louisiana State
2007 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
2 39 Justin Blalock G Texas
2 41 Chris Houston CB Arkansas
3 75 Laurent Robinson WR Illinois State
4 109 Stephen Nicholas LB South Florida
4 133 Martrez Milner TE Georgia
6 185 Trey Lewis DT Washburn
6 194 David Irons CB Auburn
6 198 Doug Datish C Ohio State
6 203 Daren Stone DB Maine
7 244 Jason Snelling RB Virginia
2006 - Atlanta Falcons
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2 37 Jimmy Williams CB Virginia Tech
3 79 Jerious Norwood RB Mississippi State
5 139 Quinn Ojinnaka T Syracuse
6 184 Adam Jennings WR Fresno State
7 223 D.J. Shockley QB Georgia
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Old 02-20-2013, 03:42 PM   #40
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Re: Are Loomis /Payton as good as their draft reputation?

Between 2004-2008:

31.70 is the percentage of drafted players on the roster
19.50 is the percentage of players drafted who are actually starters
7.30 is the percentage of drafted pro bowl players
78.75 is the winning percentage

For which team?

3 in 10 are still on the roster. 2 in 10 actually start.

For a team with a near 80% winning mark over the 4 years in question?

That's Bill Belichik and the New England Patriots.

13 teams managed to keep 50% or more of their drafter players on the roster (maybe many of those rosters sucked). 36.4 was the highest percentage of drafted starters. The rest of the league was below that. Over the 4 years, the Patriots had the highest winning percentage.

For the Saints over the 4 years, 4 in 10 make the roster and 3 in 10 start.

It's a crap shoot Danno - at best an educated gamble. Still a gamble any way you slice it.

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