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papz 03-03-2013 07:08 PM

Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
1 Attachment(s)
Undervalued

1. Brian De La Puente, Center

In 2011 the Saints signed Olin Kreutz to be their center. That experiment failed quickly, and this former undrafted rookie took over. De La Puente played well enough in 2011 to keep the starting job in 2012 where he broke out as one of the better centers in the league. His 16 total pressures allowed was above average for centers, and his +13.6 run block rating was seventh-best. When you can get one of the best centers in the league for the veteran minimum, you’ve got yourself a deal.

2012 Cap Hit: $540k
2012 Performance Based Value: $4.8m
Value Differential: +$4.2m

2. Jimmy Graham, Tight End

Even though Graham didn’t have the same season in 2012 as he did in 2011, it was still a decent one. His 15 dropped passes was way too high, but he still maintained a 64.9% catch rate on the year with 11.6 yards per catch. He was a productive tight end playing on a third-round rookie contract.

2012 Cap Hit: $710k
2012 Performance Based Value: $4.9m
Value Differential: +$4.2m

3. Pierre Thomas, Halfback

The Saints have a very crowded backfield so it might be easy to forget about Pierre Thomas, who played in only 37.2% of snaps. He played far too well in those snaps for us to ignore him. He had 19 players miss tackles on him over his 105 carries, and had a high 86.7% catch rate. He wasn’t penalized on the year and was a good blocker, which means he basically does everything right.

2012 Cap Hit: $2.3m
2012 Performance Based Value: $6.0m
Value Differential: +$3.7m

Overvalued

1. Sedrick Ellis, Defensive Tackle

A clear case where the NFL’s old rookie scale didn’t work so well, Ellis is in the last year of his five-year rookie contract and didn’t play up to it. He rushed the passer 412 times and couldn’t come up with a sack. He had just four stops over the last eight weeks as well. While there are certainly plenty of worse defensive tackles in the league, Ellis just wasn’t worth anywhere near $7 million.

2012 Cap Hit: $7.6m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.0m
Value Differential: -$6.5m

2. Roman Harper, Safety

There are three key numbers when judging safeties that Harper doesn’t fare well in. His catch rate allowed is 70.8%, his yards per catch allowed is 14.4 and he had 12 missed tackles on the year. Put all of that together and you have a safety that is far below average, yet still has two years on his contract where he will be paid like a very good safety.

2012 Cap Hit: $6.4m
2012 Performance Based Value: $920k
Value Differential: -$5.4m

3. Jermon Bushrod, Offensive Tackle

He allowed only four sacks in 2012, which is decent for a tackle, but his 58 total pressures allowed was the second-most among his peers. He at least is a good run blocker and was penalized only six times on his 1130 snaps, which made him worth a bit more than the veteran minimum, but he was worth nowhere near $6.9 million.

2012 Cap Hit: $6.9m
2012 Performance Based Value: $2.0m
Value Differential: -$4.9m

Read entire article: Profootball Focus

rezburna 03-03-2013 07:34 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
I would let everyone walk except Jordan, Wilson, Gallette, and Lofton. You can't get any worse then it already was on the defensive side of the ball. As far as Bushrod, he should be a RT.

saintsfan403 03-03-2013 07:45 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Seeing Harper and Ellis' cap differential makes me want to vomit.

|Mitch| 03-03-2013 08:32 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Hopefully Loomis is on the Harper contract situation, and Ellis :rolleyes:

Glad that's over with...

WhoDat!656 03-03-2013 08:35 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
"He rushed the passer 412 times and couldn’t come up with a sack.

The Saints should demand a refund!!

*********************************************************

I apologize in advance for the adult language in the attachment!!!

SmashMouth 03-03-2013 08:35 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Good assessment... Maybe they do move Bushrod to the right side.

FinSaint 03-03-2013 09:21 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

1. Sedrick Ellis, Defensive Tackle

A clear case where the NFL’s old rookie scale didn’t work so well, Ellis is in the last year of his five-year rookie contract and didn’t play up to it. He rushed the passer 412 times and couldn’t come up with a sack. He had just four stops over the last eight weeks as well. While there are certainly plenty of worse defensive tackles in the league, Ellis just wasn’t worth anywhere near $7 million.

I remain skeptical...

TheOak 03-04-2013 06:33 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Smith and Vilma = -8.5m .... And yet some want them back...

hagan714 03-04-2013 06:35 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SmashMouth (Post 483239)
Good assessment... Maybe they do move Bushrod to the right side.


after all these year i have a conversion. dam right rt lol

Danno 03-04-2013 08:18 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 483287)
Smith and Vilma = -8.5m .... And yet some want them back...

Lofton graded worse than Vilma, do we want send him packing too?

It would be foolish to NOT want these guys back at a much reduced salary, since we currently have no one that has proven better.

If and when we acquire better players, then cut them.

TheOak 03-04-2013 08:42 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 483312)
Lofton graded worse than Vilma, do we want send him packing too?

It would be foolish to NOT want these guys back at a much reduced salary, since we currently have no one that has proven better.

If and when we acquire better players, then cut them.

Where do you see a contract value grade vs performance on Lofton?

I searched the article and found nothing on him.

papz 03-04-2013 09:00 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
I guess they didn't grade everyone. It couldn't have been that bad if he didn't make the list and was a key acquisition... I would think.

Danno 03-04-2013 09:34 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 483317)
Where do you see a contract value grade vs performance on Lofton?

I searched the article and found nothing on him.

But you called out Vilma and Smith, knowing both are currently being re-negotiated and that everyone that wants them back wants them back at a huge pay reduction.

TheOak 03-04-2013 10:02 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 483330)
But you called out Vilma and Smith, knowing both are currently being re-negotiated and that everyone that wants them back wants them back at a huge pay reduction.

I called out Vilma and Smith because they were graded. You called out Loften for?

Ive seen zero news that there are negotiations indeed happening between the Saints and Vilma or Smith.

The Saints have gone public saying they 'want" to restructure but that has yet to happen.
Sources: Saints Seek Restructured Deals For Vilma, Smith* - Sports News - ABC News Radio

Until there is a restructure, there is no restructure. Until there is news that restructuring is in progress, there is no restructuring going on.

Danno 03-04-2013 10:48 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 483335)
I called out Vilma and Smith because they were graded. You called out Loften for?

Ive seen zero news that there are negotiations indeed happening between the Saints and Vilma or Smith.

The Saints have gone public saying they 'want" to restructure but that has yet to happen.
Sources: Saints Seek Restructured Deals For Vilma, Smith* - Sports News - ABC News Radio

Until there is a restructure, there is no restructure. Until there is news that restructuring is in progress, there is no restructuring going on.

But you claimed that "yet some want them back". I don't recall a single person saying they wanted them back at their current salary.

TheOak 03-04-2013 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 483342)
But you claimed that "yet some want them back". I don't recall a single person saying they wanted them back at their current salary.

So you've never read one single quote on these boards along the lines of "Vilma is the leader of our defense, I would like to see him come back".

I'm treating the absence of "at a reduced pay" as not a condition since it wasn't mentioned.


Again, your basis for your statement on Lofton? "Lofton graded worse than Vilma".

Danno 03-04-2013 11:18 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 483344)
So you've never read one single quote on these boards along the lines of "Vilma is the leader of our defense, I would like to see him come back".

I'm treating the absence of "at a reduced pay" as not a condition since it wasn't mentioned.

Again, your basis for your statement on Lofton? "Lofton graded worse than Vilma".

I have never seen or read one single quote that said anyone wanted them back at their current salaries. I'm just curious who the "some" are you're referring to. Another board perhaps?

Lofton graded worse than Vilma on PFF grades, which I believe are the grades used for this article.

Vilma was rated 100th, and Lofton was rated 104th.

Edit: Vilma ranked 100th at OLB, Lofton ranked 104th at MLB, so I'm correct but it is kinda apples and oranges.

TheOak 03-04-2013 11:43 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danno (Post 483347)
I have never seen or read one single quote that said anyone wanted them back at their current salaries. I'm just curious who the "some" are you're referring to. Another board perhaps?

Lofton graded worse than Vilma on PFF grades, which I believe are the grades used for this article.

Vilma was rated 100th, and Lofton was rated 104th.

Edit: Vilma ranked 100th at OLB, Lofton ranked 104th at MLB, so I'm correct but it is kinda apples and oranges.

PFF ranked them on performance for 2012... That is a different approach than Performance Based Value. While one player may preform greater than another his contract may be grossly large making him a lessor value.

It looks like PFF is not finished as they have done QBs, Kickers and Punters, and Teams but not by the remaining positions just yet.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...e-based-value/

If someone doesn't say they want him back and INCLUDE "at a lower price" I see no caveat to that desire.

I will ask this question again... Vilma is in his last year, there is no restructuring for it, there is no place to redistribute to. So... are you talking a new contract or an extension? Do you think that with his steady decline in the last few years that we cant find better value for the next 3-4 years?

His AV (Average Value) has been in a steady decline since 2010.

Johnathan Vilmas AV for 2012 - 3
Jonathan Vilma NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Loftons AV for comparison. 2012 - 7
Jonathan Vilma NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Vilma AV for 2012 = 3 Cap hit for 2013 $8.6m
Lofton AV for 1021 = 7 ... Cap hit for 2013 $3.1m (Lofton restructured a few weeks ago)


I'm not sure Lofton is a good value comparison for Vilma in regards to this debate lol.

Danno 03-04-2013 11:49 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Once again, no one said they wanted Vilma or Smith back at their current salaries. There have been posts about them re-structuring, which I pointed out that Vima can not restructure without an extension, which is a re-negotiation.

http://blackandgold.com/saints/55702...-contract.html

http://blackandgold.com/saints/55581...structure.html

st thomas 03-04-2013 03:09 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
ELLIS has to be the biggest bunk asre player payton ever drafted. he needs to hang it up.

voodooido 03-04-2013 07:38 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SmashMouth (Post 483239)
Good assessment... Maybe they do move Bushrod to the right side.

Not for the price he will ask. CJ would be better at RT in my book.

Rugby Saint II 03-05-2013 05:14 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
I hoped years ago that they would move Bushrod to RT where he would be good. We are still clinging on to this guy. Let him go and make sure that you resign dlp.

Supertek 03-06-2013 10:23 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Dont know where these rankings came from but i KNOW LOFTON LEAD THE TEAM IN TACKLES and with some help he could do a lot more. I am 100% with Resburna and until our coaching staff wakes up and commits to making changes we will continue to see the same crap next year.

lee909 03-06-2013 10:41 AM

E

lee909 03-06-2013 10:46 AM

Phone in pocket
Sorry

TheOak 03-06-2013 10:55 AM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
O

FinSaint 03-06-2013 02:42 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
http://imgix.8tracks.com/i/000/019/7...pg?fm=jpg&q=65

TheOak 03-06-2013 02:44 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FinSaint (Post 483976)

Gang signs....

FinSaint 03-06-2013 02:45 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
...or E?!

TheOak 03-06-2013 02:54 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FinSaint (Post 483983)
...or E?!

A designer drug?

FinSaint 03-06-2013 03:49 PM

Re: Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 483987)
A designer drug?


Yeah, it's a good one to know the next time you go to a club with ear-splitting music booming all around you, and you desperately need to replenish your stash. ;-)


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