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An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; The New Orleans Saints did not get their money's worth last year, according to this in-depth study by Pro Football Focus. Nathan Jahnke described the basic idea behind Pro Football Focus' "Performance Based Value" studies on the website. We set ...

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Old 03-11-2013, 05:56 AM   #1
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Arrow An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

The New Orleans Saints did not get their money's worth last year, according to this in-depth study by Pro Football Focus.
Nathan Jahnke described the basic idea behind Pro Football Focus' "Performance Based Value" studies on the website.
We set out to take the highest cap hit at a position and match that up with that position’s highest-rated player. Then take the second-highest cap hit and match it with the second-highest-graded player, and so on. All players who were either active or inactive for at least one game were included, and players who spent the entire year on injured reserve or as free agents, ignored. The goal being to set salaries right, based solely on player performance during the 2012 season.
Essentially, the measurement is intended to decide how much a player deserved to make last year based on his performance.
For example, in 2012 the Saints took a salary-cap hit of $710,000 for Jimmy Graham's contract. Pro Football Focus determined his performance merited a value, relative to other tight ends, of $4,900,000. Thus, the Saints' investment (in salary-cap allocation) in Jimmy Graham resulted in a gain of $4,190,000.
Yet while players—like Brian De La Puente, Jimmy Graham and Pierre Thomas—resulted in gains for the Saints, many players' performances resulted in losses. But a loss alone does not merit cutting a player. Theoretically, the Saints should only cut a player if they can acquire more salary cap space than that player is worth—or could be potentially worth.
Here's a formula to determine if the Saints should consider cutting a player (or restructuring his contract):

NG(L) = (CH - UCH) - V
where...
NG(L) is the "net gain or (loss)" incurred from cutting a player,
CH is the cap hit a team will incur if a player is not cut,
UCH is the cap hit a team will still incur even if a player is cut—essentially an "unavoidable cap hit," and
V is the value a team has determined a player is worth.
Using Pro Football Focus' 2012 "performance based values" for the New Orleans Saints, here is the formula applied to Roman Harper, Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma:

Roman Harper
• 2012 Value (V): $920,000
• 2013 Cap Hit (CH): $7,100,000
• Value and Cap Hit Difference: ($6,180,000)
• 2013 Cap Hit If Cut (UCH): $1,750,000
• Cap Room Acquired If Cut: $5,350,000
NG(L) = ($7,100,000 - $1,750,000) - $920,000
NG(L) = $5,350,000 - $920,000
NG(L) = $4,430,000
Thus, the net gain or (loss) from cutting Roman Harper would be a gain of
$4,430,000
.

Will Smith

• 2012 Value (V): $970,000
• 2013 Cap Hit (CH): $14,541,666
• Value and Cap Hit Difference: ($13,571,666)
• 2013 Cap Hit If Cut (UCH): $4,391,666
• Cap Room Acquired If Cut: $10,150,000
NG(L) = ($14,541,666 - $4,391,666) - $970,000
NG(L) = $10,150,000 - $970,000
NG(L) = $9,180,000
Thus, the net gain or (loss) from cutting Will Smith would be a gain of $9,180,000.

Jonathan Vilma

• 2012 Value (V): $830,000
• 2013 Cap Hit (CH): $8,682,500
• Value and Cap Hit Difference: ($7,852,500)
• 2013 Cap Hit If Cut (UCH): $2,632,500
• Cap Room Acquired If Cut: $6,050,000
NG(L) = ($8,682,500 - $2,632,500) - $830,000
NG(L) = $6,050,000 - $830,000
NG(L) = $5,220,000
Thus, the net gain or (loss) from cutting Jonathan Vilma would be a gain of $5,220,000.

After applying this method, the Saints look to be able to free up around $21,550,000 in cap space in exchange for losing Roman Harper, Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma. These three players are valued at approximately $2,720,000 total, so these transactions would result in a total net gain of $18,830,000.


According to these results, the Saints should either cut Harper, Smith and Vilma, or restructure their contracts.
Unfortunately, players' contributions to a team cannot be exactly calculated. Qualities like leadership, experience, and potential growth cannot be accounted for in purely statistical measurements.
But this analytical approach, and others like it, are a starting point. Their results must be analyzed by the Saints' front office in conjunction with other factors to make the best possible decisions for the franchise.
Consequently, due to the huge losses the Saints could potentially incur from Roman Harper, Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma's contracts, there seems to be only two choices that can be considered good business—cut them or restructure their contracts.


New Orleans Saints: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts | Bleacher Report
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:00 AM   #2
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

My head hurts......just like being back at school lol

cut will smith, restructure harper and vilma, if they don't fit in RR's scheme or don't want to restructure, cut all 3
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:01 AM   #3
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

Unfortunately, players' contributions to a team cannot be exactly calculated. Qualities like leadership, experience, and potential growth cannot be accounted for in purely statistical measurements.

But this analytical approach, and others like it, are a starting point. Their results must be analyzed by the Saints' front office in conjunction with other factors to make the best possible decisions for the franchise.

This is the key in any move involving these three.
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:05 AM   #4
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

Originally Posted by dizzle88 View Post
My head hurts......just like being back at school lol

cut will smith, restructure harper and vilma, if they don't fit in RR's scheme or don't want to restructure, cut all 3
In years past i would have tried to do it. i am glad some one else did the math lol

Who is going to double check it? show of hands
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:06 AM   #5
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

Originally Posted by hagan714 View Post
Unfortunately, players' contributions to a team cannot be exactly calculated. Qualities like leadership, experience, and potential growth cannot be accounted for in purely statistical measurements.

This is the key in any move involving these three.
Definitley agree with you there

I actually do like roman harper when a lot of people chastise him or use him as the scapegoat
He is not fantastic in coverage and never will be, but he steadily improved over the years and is fantastic in run support
Plus he's a leader on our D, Vilma still has the smarts of the game but I think time is catching up with him and I personally think we should get rid of will smith
My example is as soon as we removed will smith from the game vs chargers, Martez Wilson got two sacks and so did junior galette

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Old 03-11-2013, 06:06 AM   #6
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

"Off with their heads!"

Seriously, I hope Vilma can restructure...

I'd like to close the book on Harper and Smith though...
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:38 AM   #7
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
"Off with their heads!"


Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
Seriously, I hope Vilma can restructure...

I'd like to close the book on Harper and Smith though...
The time is running out agree but the way they leave is a big deal IMO team wise. Some players it all a money thing. Other select players it comes down to loyalty as viewed by the team. Harper Smith and Vilma all have redone deals and helped out over the years on the money side. These three are the core vets that brought the super bowl ring to the saints.

tread softly and listen carefully before making a move. Thats why i think a few names will return on next years list if not all three

Most of us old timers still have not forgiven the way archie and others were treated at the end. love B slap that whole FO still

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Old 03-11-2013, 07:08 AM   #8
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

Hagan just gave me a bleacher report lesson!!!! if your story comes from Bleacher report copy it out so people wont have to read it on Bleacher report!!!!! LMAO!!!!!

As to the story, all I got to say is $18,830,000 which is what they calculate the overall net loss as........ It's time to drop the hammer on these players and Mickey Loomis should be all to happy to put on his parachute pants and do the chinese typewriter on these contracts....

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Old 03-11-2013, 08:23 AM   #9
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

Originally Posted by dizzle88 View Post
My head hurts......just like being back at school lol

cut will smith, restructure harper and vilma, if they don't fit in RR's scheme or don't want to restructure, cut all 3
if we truly want to get out of this with minimal pain. Restructure them in a way that we take no dead money hit and cut them next year.
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Old 03-11-2013, 08:34 AM   #10
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Re: An Analytical Approach to Harper, Smith and Vilma Contracts

I don't think their numbers are correct.

And its incredibly short-sighted to apply a 2012 value to our 2013 defense. Its apples to oranges.

EVERY player on our 2012 defense would have a value slightly over vet minimum, except Bunkley, Galette and Jordan.

While its obvious to everyone that they need to re-structure, the entire premise of this analysis is flawed.

Smith and Vilma are entering that fantasy year of every players contract that they never see. They know it, their agent knows it and the team knows it.
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