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The Trade Back
Seems the great majority of the members here want to trade back. I have a few questions for you that you need to answer for that to even be possible. I understand the desire. How do you plan on getting this done? Every one wants a second rounder but how do you get it? Chris Ivory has been out there under a Second Round tender for over a month and no bites.
1. What/Who do we have that someone else wants? (Be specific) 2. What/Who is in the draft that a team needs to trade up for? (Be specific) 3. Why do the Saints value latter round picks more than other teams? This is important because all deals favor the party with leverage. Knowing the want/need of both parties is huge leverage. Present a scenario where you would offer another team a trade that they would accept for a 1st round pick. It is fine to want something to happen but there needs to be some thought into why any team would do that. In most drafts the top 5 are an easy guess. This years draft is not littered with 1st round talent. |
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1. SS or RB seem to be the only players we could deal that could draw interest - although minimal..
2. A day one starter. Outside of a few LT's I don't see a player we should reach for. 3. I think you're spot on with this. It's been Payton's philosophy since arriving in New Orleans. Leverage and motivation. |
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1. Which is my point about not entertaining the trade down for a second round pick. We have nothing with offering that wouldn't hurt us more than help us.
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There have already been some solid possibilities brought up by JP and others in the "Big Board" thread, and I can't really come up with better scenarios than those.
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This is not hard to answer.
First of all, I'm not so sure the majority of people WANT to trade back, necessarily. It's a matter of IF we do not have a player at 15 who fits a need enough to warrant selecting him there, then we would like to see a trade back. But on to the question. You seem to be making the assumption that we would have to trade a player. The reason they call it trading back is self explanatory... You trade your first pick. Obviously there is no guarantee that we'd find a trade partner. But while trading down doesn't happen terribly often, I have a feeling it's very rare that someone doesn't inquire about trading up or down at almost every spot in the top 15-20 selections. It just depends on how much a team is willing to offer you to trade back. Also, you are asking us to tell you what a team needs behind us that they would be willing to trade up for. That is a question that cannot be answered until we know who goes where, in the first place. You also don't know how high a team might value a certain player, whom the rest of us might not believe is a first rounder. We've all seen our share of draft blunders by different organizations. So then, IF a team sees a player that they really want, and they are afraid that he might not fall past the next couple of teams, they will ask the Saints about trading up. The assumption is that they would offer a 2nd rounder (and obviously we would take their spot in the first round) because of how high our pick is. We may offer a third or fourth rounder to further entice getting that 2nd rounder. |
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"The Trade Back"
me gusta... makes it sound like "The Catch" ... or in our case..."The Onside's Kick". I think we will have to wait a bit more, maybe even until draft day, and see how it all unfolds. Still many moves by teams in play. |
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I think we'd have to package a couple items together to get a mid to low 2nd. Its a trade-up market this year. I think the majority of teams would like to trade down a few spots and pick up anotrher 2nd/3rd rounder.
Barring a trade of a player we don't want to lose (Sproles/Moore/PT) its gonna have to be our 1st plus someone like Ivory to get a 2nd rounder. We could probably trade our 1st for a late 1st plus a late 2nd. The old value chart is probably off 1/2 round this year, but this is what it typically would get us. This year, I'd drop the trade at least 10 picks... Trade down around 5 spots = gain a mid 3rd rounder (now a 4th) Trade down around 10 spots = gain a late 2nd rounder (now early 3rd) Trade down around 15 spots = gain a mid 2nd rounder (now a late 2nd) Trade down around 20 spots = gain an early 2nd rounder (now a mid 2nd) Throw in Ivory and it probably jumps up a round. |
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We can trade our first round pick, 15 overall and valued at 1050 points, to the 49ers for their first round pick, 31st overall and valued at 600 points, their second second round pick, 61st overall and valued at 292 points, and their second third round pick, 93rd overall and valued at 128 points. 1050 for 1020.
I think the 49ers will take this deal because: 1 It's fair and 2 they want Tavon Austin. Pairing Tavon Austin with Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, AJ Jenkins, Colin Kaepernick, that running game and that defense makes the the clear favorite, in my opinion, to make it out of the NFC. 1(31) DL Jesse Williams 2(61) OLB Jamie Collins (NFL Network said Jarvis Jones could get pushed out of the first, I'd take him if still available) 3(75) OL Barrett Jones 3(93) S Shawn Williams 4(109) OT Jordan Mills (Maybe go after a QB of the future with Landry Jones) 5(144) NT TJ Barnes 6(183) CB Tharold Simon (I know he might have a problem with work ethic, but this low I wouldn't be able to pass) With the moves we've managed to make in free agency, even with limited cap space, and a good draft class (see above), I think we can give the 49ers a run for their money. |
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There are certainly no shortage of possibilities, fellas. I'm definitely not worried about the ability to trade down, it it becomes necessary. I'm just curious as to how the Saints will play it. They have been impossible to predict.
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I will leave you with these teams that traded down and could probably choke them selves for it now: Chargers traded away Eli Manning Rams trade away Bettis New England traded away Jerry Rice Colts traded away Marshall Faulk Seahawks traded away Dorsett Falcons swapped with Chargers to Got Vick instead of Tomlinson |
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Oak, you're missing the point everyone is making. I'm not saying you have to agree with it. But the point is not about getting a lower pick. It's about getting MORE picks. We don't lose a first round choice, we simply pick a little lower, while acquiring an extra pick.
Now, I do agree with your sentiment above that you don't want to do business with a rival. It's one thing to trade with a team who you will play, but not with a team who you're likely going to have to beat somewhere down the road if you want to win the Superbowl... With one exception. If the Niners were to offer several picks just to get our #15, you can't pass that up. Doubt that would happen though. |
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More doesn't equate to better. When the starting potential drops heavily from pick 15 to pick 45, and a team is in "need", I do not see the value. Unless the value is for a team that needs a project QB more than a starting LT. |
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We need to sell teams on the idea of being interested on Austin or Patterson to try and make the Rams or Vikings want to bite if they are there at 15. Which at least one of them will be.
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Not as true this year with the spread out talent of the draft class. |
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How does the draft value chart work regarding next year's picks being used with this year's picks/Ivory in a big package deal, say if we wanted to move up instead of down? I understand my n00b may be showing here, but we did have Johnson in for a workout and Payton is on record about the LT/losing sleep thing. Is this just extremely wishful thinking? It seems we've brought in several FAs, and a smaller draft class does mean less $$ to pay out. Sorry if this is a dumb scenario, just wondering if SP/ML might zig instead of zag
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History has shown that there's an entire round difference when you include the following year's draft. ie... If you give someone your 3rd rounder this year, you'll get their 2nd rounder next year. |
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Haha! Here are bunch of crazed fans arguing this out incessantly. Can you imagine what's going on in the team's draft strategy meetings? Wonder if they have to order new furniture and such after the draft's over.
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1. What/Who do we have that someone else wants? (Be specific)
Aside from our #15 pick, frankly not much. The thought of adding a body to improve our return is minimal. But people may want the #15 spot depending who falls. I don't think anyone is targeting us as a position they need to get into now. That will happen if someone else leapfrogs and disrupts the predicted dispersement of picks or causes someone to unexpectedly fall. Any trade down we make would be a reactionary one. 2. What/Who is in the draft that a team needs to trade up for? (Be specific) Again, depends on how it plays out. Austin could be a desired guy. There is a plethora of pass rush ends and linebackers who might be targeted by teams. If say an OG like Jonathan Cooper falls to us may Chicago, Dallas or the Giants try to leap over each other? Maybe Cinncinnati needs to get into a WR position over St. Louis or Pittsburgh and will give up their late 2 to move from 21. 3. Why do the Saints value latter round picks more than other teams? This is important because all deals favor the party with leverage. Knowing the want/need of both parties is huge leverage. Present a scenario where you would offer another team a trade that they would accept for a 1st round pick. See above at #2 for a few possible scenarios. I think we value moving down because we are short picks this year and there are teams who have some and need quality over quantity and can see the value of moving up. As said, this draft has depth at many positions and I think alot of 2nd round guys don't grade much lower than some 1sts. This draft is short of A+ and A players and deeper in B+ and B guys than normal. Come draft day I think we are in a weird spot. Our needs don't necessarily expect to be there for us and the need options may not be valued right there so a trade down is open. I think Payton and Loomis will fully play the bluff that we have 3-4 targeted guys who will all be there, a danger we will step on someone's hope because we too have so many need positions and a history of taking BPA. We aren't a team scared of drafting at a position we don't really need and that may make other GM's take our bluff. |
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Jimmy Johnson, former Dallas Head Coach, and probably a better talent evaluator and GM than Coach traded down often and won three (3) Superbowls...
It's all relative... We have the most prolific passing game in NFL history; a dynamic, diversified stable of running backs, and an effective offensive line scheme... What we are missing is above-average, supporting cast, defensive talent that can slow the opposite and create a +2 turnover margin... |
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Impossible to answer. We have to wait & see what happens on Draft Day. What trades are made before us & who is gone.
Trading down is a definite option |
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There are some good scenarios.........but no matter what we come up with the FO will find something to make us scratch our heads.
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This years draft is deep at several positions that we have needs. The level of talent is not very different in the 15-30 range and players at the top of the second round are very close in value to the bottom of the first. This is the type of draft where 2nd rd picks are valuable. I hope some team falls in love with a player and trades up. This draft is going to be crazy players in the top five could very easily fall.
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Boy, draft day can't come soon enough. |
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Seems like everyone wants to trade down this year.
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