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New Defenses: Odds of Success

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I took all current DC and broke down their ability to make the playoffs with a new team. I didn't dig in the weeds on experience, schemes, or team dynamics. This is straight up a DC on a new team ...

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Old 07-05-2013, 02:57 PM   #1
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New Defenses: Odds of Success

I took all current DC and broke down their ability to make the playoffs with a new team. I didn't dig in the weeds on experience, schemes, or team dynamics. This is straight up a DC on a new team and making the playoffs. Here are the results:

Occurrences: 69
No playoffs: 44
Playoffs: 25

Odds of making playoffs: 36%


I suspected the results to be right around there. Not very encouraging but Greg Williams did it in 2009 and the Saints are known for tearing apart statistical molds like losing the last 3 games and winning the SB . FYI Wade Phillips is a beast, he did it 6 times.
Don Capers did it 5 times.

I'm going to look at the data again and check the odds of winning the SB...need a break.
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Old 07-05-2013, 03:28 PM   #2
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

Does having a top 5 offense factor in an anyway? I mean we did go 7-9 with the worst defense in history and without a head coach...
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Old 07-05-2013, 03:30 PM   #3
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

Well the 2013 Saints aren't the norm as far as new DC's go. We have several things going in our favor.

We get our head coach back - Huge

We get a DC who is similar in style to the one we had in 2011, where our defense finished in the top half in points allowed and run defense.

I'd say most teams that get a new DC got one because the whole coaching staff was replaced. Typically when that happens its because the team stunk all around.

Projecting the 2013 Saints in any way shape or form based on NFL historical data is gonna be an apples to oranges comparison.
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Old 07-05-2013, 03:30 PM   #4
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

Wade phillips turned out to be an awesome decision for Houston, i hope RR can atleast get our D to a mid range level, thats all we need
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Old 07-05-2013, 03:39 PM   #5
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

We don't fit the mold of a normal 7-9 team. People would love nothing better for us to fall of though. They'll be sadly mistaken when the season starts. I'm praying for a 42-10 debacle of the Falcons.
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Old 07-05-2013, 04:21 PM   #6
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

Stats are for baseball!
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Old 07-05-2013, 04:21 PM   #7
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

Usually when defensive coordinators change, there is something massively wrong with the team, head coaching changes, rebuillds, poor season the year before, etc etc. In spite of what people may believe, there really isn't anything massively wrong with the Saints right now. That defense was bad, but it was not really AS bad as its "worst in NFL history" title. We now know that the players in the locker room quit on Spags, and Spags sort of quit on the team with his "I don't know what the problem is" comments. So the whole year's performance was very suspect, from what we now know in hindsight. The horrible defense was probably not AS bad as it really was, if that makes any sense.
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Old 07-05-2013, 04:23 PM   #8
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

As stated, it's just stats, nothing more. I just wanted to know so I did the math.

No question, this is not some re-building team with a constant revolving exit of clowns from a clown car like the Raiders. Offense intact, run game intact, OL looks decent.

The issue is if Ryan can improve the D enough, which going off of last season should not be that difficult. I don't even think getting it average is needed to make the playoffs. A few more W's and we're in.

Now, if the D reflects his appetite then yeah, we are going to the SB. The man looks like he is beyond his third trimester. He's a food baby machine.
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Old 07-07-2013, 07:32 PM   #9
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

36%ish.........
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Old 07-08-2013, 12:43 PM   #10
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Re: New Defenses: Odds of Success

Way too many variables outside of their control to give credit to a new DC for either making or not making the playoffs.
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