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A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by SaintsBro Well, the premise is discounting the fact that in the Sean Payton* Bounty* Wiretapping* Katrina Refs* Slippery Dome Turf* Cheating With Whistles* Continue To Touch And Affect The Head While We Secretly Tape Your Locker Room ...

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Old 08-31-2013, 06:46 PM   #21
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Originally Posted by SaintsBro View Post
Well, the premise is discounting the fact that in the Sean Payton* Bounty* Wiretapping* Katrina Refs* Slippery Dome Turf* Cheating With Whistles* Continue To Touch And Affect The Head While We Secretly Tape Your Locker Room * era, in our division, we own the Falcons AND the Bucs.

In order for your mathimaticatin' to work, for the Bucs to win the division, the Bucs have to improve. And they have to improve against the Saints. Who just beat them and their new coach 41-0, and 35-28 (and even with the worst defense in the world, it wasn't even that close, the pathetic Bucs trailed for most of the game).

Basically, the truth is that, in recent years, if the Saints play the Bucs, the only way the Bucs ever win is if SOMETHING CRAYZEE HAPPENS. If it's both teams at equal strength, normal game, with Payton, the Saints win, and it's usually a blowout.

The Bucs recent wins against the Saints are:

- when coach broke his freaking leg on the sideline;
- a couple of games at the end of the season where Saints starters were pulled in various points of the game;
- and of course the crazy game in 2009 where Hartley missed in OT, and Benson danced like a fool thinking he'd made it. So see, something CRAYZEE has to happen for the Bucs to win.

But it was still obvious that in THAT game, we had the lead and Payton snapped the playbook shut, and the Saints spent the whole second half handing off to 3rd string running back Lynell Hamilton, nursing the lead, trying to not get anybody injured for the playoffs. The game wasn't "meaningless," per se, but it didn't ultimately affect the playoff standings any, and Payton knew it.

Every OTHER time these two teams have recently played, the games were Saints beatdowns, sometimes on the brink of being riots. It's one of the games I look forward to every year, where Payton really turns on the juice and lets it rip.

So the Bucs have a very uphill climb to get anywhere out of the cellar, much harder climb than the Saints, who have a history of performing well in division games as long as SOMETHING CRAYZEE doesn't happen.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here? We havent swept this team back to back seasons ever. And back in 06 we won 31-14 in TB, the next year TB won 31-14 in the same place. And in that final week 17 game, they took out Ivory and that very well hurt us for the Seattle game. Who's to say something else crazy cannot happen? Hartley certainly has his blunders and could have won here. The bigger problem is Revis. Look at the jets in 09, Brees could not move the ball, we had to rely on Thomas and our defense. Bucs not only have Revis but also Goldson who for SF gave Brees problems as well..............Nobody really knows what that defense will be like but if Revis is healthy and back to form, they are scary on that side of the ball and the last thing you want is a VJac breakaway TD. Its coming to that point where we will have to beat them in the trenches.
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Old 08-31-2013, 06:51 PM   #22
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Originally Posted by TheOak View Post
Vegas compiles relevant data...... It analyses cause and effect. They don't lay down heavy odds on irrelevant data.

Who is injured right now has some relevance on what the possible outcome of this season could be. Who finished second last season has nothing to do with who will finish first this season. Schedules have changed, players have changed, etc....

Once you get past that part, the fact that this is specific to just the NFC South like there is a mystical force in place that doesn't effect the other 7 divisions.... and doesn't effect any postseason makes it preposterous.

On Vegas.... The house was built on people thinking they have figured it out... Not by people actually figuring it out. The house always has the upper hand even if the casino is opened in my living room.


I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03?


There are oddities but there are gaps
NFC South - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though.
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Old 08-31-2013, 06:54 PM   #23
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 View Post
I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though.
And that answers my 02' 03' question how?
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Old 09-02-2013, 09:06 PM   #24
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Originally Posted by TheOak View Post
And that answers my 02' 03' question how?



I was quoting the part about the other 7 divisions.
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Old 12-24-2013, 09:13 PM   #25
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Well I think its time to take a good hard look at this. Y'all did not believe and I hope I'm wrong and the panthers lose this week and the saints win. But if that doesnt happen I told you so.
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Old 12-24-2013, 09:53 PM   #26
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Falcons: lot of talent at skill positions, decimated by injuries this year, playing a 3rd, or maybe even 4th place schedule next year
Saints: Most starters back
Panthers: playing over their heads, and their offense really isn't very good
Bucs: suck

facts, not trends
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Old 12-25-2013, 11:56 PM   #27
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

No, I said that it could be 1.Carolina or TB 2.Carolina or NO 3.Atlanta 4.TB or NO

And guess what it very well could be this. Key injuries happen every year. No team stays perfectly healthy with key players back to back years. When a big year happens, a injury hits the next season and you see the team start reacting to it on the field. The south has been a numbers curse division for some time now.
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