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Sean Payton Brain Fart

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs. Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought ...

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Old 12-09-2013, 02:20 PM   #31
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs.

Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought for sure they were gonna find a mismatch and take a shot down the field on the second down there. Then they didn't. Oh well. There might have been two plays, a run and a pass called, and Drew saw something and checked into the run, we don't really know.


The other reason it also might have been declined, is because maybe Payton wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle last week, or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year, in almost the exact same spot on the field (except it was in Carolina). Given the probabilities, and that a turnover in that area at that point in the game would really suck, I don't think it was that bad of a call, to just take the yards and keep on going, we were moving the ball okay in the first half. 2nd and 3 the Panthers will show you a different defensive look and personnel than they will on 1st and 10 so maybe that was part of his thinking too. Who knows. I hope someone asks him about it this week because it was an interesting call, although I wouldn't call it a "brain fart" just because Payton doesn't do what you would have done.

Last edited by SaintsBro; 12-09-2013 at 02:22 PM..
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Old 12-09-2013, 03:26 PM   #32
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

In Sean we trust!
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Old 12-09-2013, 11:45 PM   #33
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

Originally Posted by blackangold View Post
Nothing wrong with passing twice after being stuffed on the run play. You got a 6'5 wr and a 6'7 TE; tossing the ball on fade routes is a good call against the 1st ranked run D.
A quarterback sneak in what you do in that situation. There is very little room for the receivers to run routes that close, and often trying to force a pass there ends in disaster. For us, it ended in 3 points instead of 6. It's a non issue now, but it was not high percentage play-calling. The fade rarely works aswell.
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Old 12-09-2013, 11:48 PM   #34
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

Originally Posted by SaintsBro View Post
The probability of getting 3 yards in two downs, is greater than the probability of getting 10 yards in 3 downs.

Also, 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I thought for sure they were gonna find a mismatch and take a shot down the field on the second down there. Then they didn't. Oh well. There might have been two plays, a run and a pass called, and Drew saw something and checked into the run, we don't really know.


The other reason it also might have been declined, is because maybe Payton wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle last week, or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year, in almost the exact same spot on the field (except it was in Carolina). Given the probabilities, and that a turnover in that area at that point in the game would really suck, I don't think it was that bad of a call, to just take the yards and keep on going, we were moving the ball okay in the first half. 2nd and 3 the Panthers will show you a different defensive look and personnel than they will on 1st and 10 so maybe that was part of his thinking too. Who knows. I hope someone asks him about it this week because it was an interesting call, although I wouldn't call it a "brain fart" just because Payton doesn't do what you would have done.
Not when you are a passing team. We don't run well, as evidenced lastnight. Sure we get some chunks against bottom feeding defenses like the Cowboys, but unless you're talking about 15 yards difference, I'll take the extra down every time. 2nd and 1, i can see taking the play and running for the first down, but anything beyond that, it's not a good thing for us to be attempting to run for a first down in my opinion.
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Old 12-10-2013, 12:37 AM   #35
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

Have no problem with discussing (second guessing) Coach Payton; I mean, are we all supposed to just post how much we love the team?!?

Let's eliminate color and let the moderators with closet nazi feelings manage us into another production of Pleasantville...
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Old 12-10-2013, 11:32 AM   #36
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

Originally Posted by burningmetal View Post
2nd and 1, i can see taking the play and running for the first down, but anything beyond that, it's not a good thing for us to be attempting to run for a first down in my opinion.
Then you are second guessing the playcalling decision to run on 2nd down, which is a different question from the penalty decision to take the yards.

Take the penalty, it's first down, you have 3 downs to get 10 yards = you need to get 3.3 yards per play, from the 21
Take the 2nd and 3, you have 2 plays to get 3 yards = you need 1.5 yards per play and you're out to the 23. Better field position, lower yards to go, higher probability you'll get it in two tries.

It has nothing to do with having a good running game or not. It has nothing to do with your emotions about the Saints, wanting them to pass more or your opinion on not wanting them to run. It's about probability, which is easier/harder or more likely to be achieved -- 3 downs to get 10 or 2 downs to get 3. You're saying in that situation you'll "take" the 1st and 10, and that's fine, that's your decision, you're the coach -- but you are taking the harder path to achieve success, with a more difficult probability to get it.

Plus, when Brees is that close to our own goal line, it also makes sense to take the yards, to go forward, and keep going and get further outside the 20. Because that is the area of the field where fumbles and turnovers going the other direction are especially dangerous. Brees just had one the week before and he had thrown a pick 6 last year against Carolina in almost the same exact field position.
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Old 12-10-2013, 01:16 PM   #37
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

When Payton made the call and Collinsworth was questioning it I said "He won a Superbowl. I trust him."
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Old 12-10-2013, 05:04 PM   #38
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

Originally Posted by Srgt. Hulka View Post
Why would it have been a 1st and 10? The penalty occurred on a 1st and 10, and it was a 5 yard penalty. I thought it would have been a 1st and 5.
Defensive Holding comes with an automatic first down. So it would be 1st and 10 even though the penalty yards are only 5 yards.

SFIAH
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Old 12-10-2013, 08:15 PM   #39
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

that was one of the duh moments in life.
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Old 12-10-2013, 10:05 PM   #40
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Re: Sean Payton Brain Fart

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II View Post
When Payton made the call and Collinsworth was questioning it I said "He won a Superbowl. I trust him."
He also said, " I have NEVER seen anyone turn down a first down." Everything in context.
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