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WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Ill put the OP to the test with some definable parameters so we can understand the impact. I would however say that with out knowing the bust rate of all positions the data is worthless. 20 years worth of Saints ...

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Old 05-07-2014, 06:46 AM   #11
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Ill put the OP to the test with some definable parameters so we can understand the impact.

I would however say that with out knowing the bust rate of all positions the data is worthless.

20 years worth of Saints WR draftees so you can see for your self... What I see is that our success depended more on who was doing the drafting, that what positions were drafted..
2013
Kenny Stills 5th
2012
Nick Toon 4th
2008
Adrien Arrington 7th
2007
Robert Meachem 1st
2006
Mike Hass 6th
Marques Colston 7th
2005
Chase Lyman 4th
2004
Devery Henderson 2nd
2003
Kareem Kelly 6th
Talman Gardner 7th
2002
Donte' Stallworth 1st
2001
Onomo Ojo 5th
2000
Sheldon Gideon 6th
1998
Andy McCullough 7th
1997
Keith Poole 4th
1996
Mercury hayes 5th
Terry Guess 5th
Toderick Malone 6th
1995
Lee DeRamus 6th
1994
Derrell Mitchell 6th
1993


Now... Just for the sake of fun and argument I will spin a few for you, all accurate, none tell you anything about how you should draft.

- 66.6% of the place Kickers in the Hall of Fame were drafted
- 100% of the players that are in the NFL Hall of Fame that wore a Saints jersey were drafted.
- Judging from the list above its ok to draft a WR, as long as it is not in the 6th round.

It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau
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Old 05-07-2014, 09:22 AM   #12
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

If there is no stand out player at our spot then we should trade down for an extra pick. Reaching never works and reaching for a need gets you Alex Molden. WR and OL are solid after round 1. Our best receivers were drafted late or not at all.
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Old 05-07-2014, 09:24 AM   #13
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Our current regime picked 6 WRs and only 1 was a great pick. Two were good picks. The others were a waste of time.
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Old 05-07-2014, 09:36 AM   #14
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

First rd WR start only 39% of the time and have a high rate of failure . I would take a WR at #27 It is statistically significant that doing so is more of a gamble than any other position. 1st rd DT are second at 46%… A #1 WR is a critical need . Some time you need to rolll the dice. Just know the odds.
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Old 05-07-2014, 10:36 AM   #15
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Originally Posted by triman View Post
First rd WR start only 39% of the time and have a high rate of failure . I would take a WR at #27 It is statistically significant that doing so is more of a gamble than any other position. 1st rd DT are second at 46%… A #1 WR is a critical need . Some time you need to rolll the dice. Just know the odds.
Provide sources please, from what I am reading your associating a WR that doesn't start his rookie season as a bust.

There is a huge difference between a "bust" and a player that starts his second season.

Ryan Leaf was a bust and started his rookie season.
Mark Ingram may have not fulfilled his 1st round status, or pulled a full load his rookie season.. or yet.... but he is far from a bust.
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Old 05-07-2014, 10:48 AM   #16
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Originally Posted by TheOak View Post
Provide sources please, from what I am reading your associating a WR that doesn't start his rookie season as a bust.

There is a huge difference between a "bust" and a player that starts his second season.

Ryan Leaf was a bust and started his rookie season.
Mark Ingram may have not fulfilled his 1st round status, or pulled a full load his rookie season.. or yet.... but he is far from a bust.
Robert meachem didn't start his rookie season but then tied for the team lead in TD's in 2009, Meachem may have not lived up to the first round hype but he is productive when called upon
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:06 PM   #17
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Mark Ingram may have not fulfilled his 1st round status, or pulled a full load his rookie season.. or yet.... but he is far from a bust.
He didn't fulfill his 1st round status, but what about the fact that we gave up a 1st and a 2nd for him?
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:37 PM   #18
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Originally Posted by pinch View Post
He didn't fulfill his 1st round status, but what about the fact that we gave up a 1st and a 2nd for him?
Thats on Loomis, not Ingram.

If Minnesota had given up 4 1st round picks for Adrian Peterson, one could say Adrian Peterson is a bust.

And by the way, post more Pinch.
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:52 PM   #19
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Guess we better address center then.
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Old 05-07-2014, 03:58 PM   #20
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Re: WR BIGGEST BUST RATE

Originally Posted by pinch View Post
He didn't fulfill his 1st round status, but what about the fact that we gave up a 1st and a 2nd for him?

As Danno pointed out, that has everything to do with value and nothing to do with Ingram's performance in the NFL.

Let's flip it to a less controversial player. Would Colston be a better worse player if he had gone in a different round? No
It would however change the value of that pick.

A bust indicates drafting a player that can't play in the NFL. It's a complete waste.
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