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NFL Week 10 Wrap-up: Sorting Through the Clumps «

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NFC Playoff Picture

Clump 1: The First-Round Byes
1. Arizona (8-1)
2. Detroit (7-2)
3. Philadelphia (6-2)
5. Dallas (7-3)
6. Seattle (6-3)
7. Green Bay (6-3)

Oh, you know, there are just six teams with realistic chances of coming away with the top seed in the NFC. While the Cardinals held on to the top spot after producing a fourth-quarter comeback at home against St. Louis, they might also have lost Carson Palmer for the season with a torn ACL, which could either throw their plans into disarray or not change things whatsoever. (More on that below.)

Their grip on the NFC West isn’t as firm as it might seem, given that they still have two games against the Seahawks, who finally got a comfortable win by dropping 21 fourth-quarter points on the Giants after starting that final frame 17-17. Seattle still has those two games against Arizona, two against San Francisco, and both Kansas City and Philadelphia to come, but if it can win its home games and come away with one road win, that would take Seattle to 10-6 and likely be enough to make the playoffs. Tiebreakers could come into play for the Seahawks based on those outcomes; they’re winning the tiebreaker against Green Bay and losing it with Dallas.

The Cowboys also righted the ship this weekend, beating the Jaguars 31-17 while paying some sort of weird stupidity tax by keeping Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray in the game with a 24-point lead in the second half. Murray had only four touches after Joseph Randle’s 40-yard touchdown run put Dallas up 31-7, but those four touches went for zero yards on a bad field in London; his workload is so heavy that every touch counts, and anybody could have done what Murray did. Dallas now gets the late bye week before finishing with three easy matchups (Bears, Giants, Washington) and three tough ones (Colts, Eagles home and away). Dallas already holds tiebreakers over New Orleans and Seattle, although Philadelphia would likely hold the divisional record tiebreaker with a split.

This all leaves the Lions in a very interesting spot. After narrowly beating the Dolphins, the Lions have now won three straight games by four points or less, which is pretty impressive for a team that had the NFL’s worst record in close games over the previous two seasons. They’re about to face the toughest two-week stretch of their remaining schedule with a road trip against the Cardinals and Patriots, but they’ll likely get the Cardinals without Palmer, which should help. If they win the Cardinals game, they go to 8-2 and claim the top spot in the NFC on a tiebreaker, with a 6-1 conference record that should settle a lot of other tiebreakers their way. After that stretch, it’s the Bears, Bucs, and Vikings at home, so the Lions will have nobody to blame but themselves.

I can’t talk about what the Packers did to the Bears on Sunday night on a Disney-owned website.

Clump 2: The NFC South Survivor
4. New Orleans (4-5)
10. Carolina (3-5-1)
11. Atlanta (3-6)

YES! This dumb division continues to go on. New Orleans could have taken a massive leap forward by beating the 49ers at home, but after taking the lead on Jimmy Graham’s second score to go up 24-21 with 1:55 left, the Saints couldn’t stop Colin Kaepernick from finding a wide-open Michael Crabtree on fourth-and-10, setting up a 45-yard field goal that pushed the game into overtime. Well, it set up an incredible game-winning pass to Graham, if not for the first offensive pass interference on a Hail Mary in a generation. In overtime, the Saints punted after a fourth-and-1 in Niners territory and Drew Brees fumbled the ball away on the next possession, giving the 49ers an easy win and saving their season.

That opens up the door for the … I can’t believe I’m saying this … Falcons? Because they beat the Saints in Week 1, the lowly Falcons would actually be in first place if the Lions hadn’t iced their own kicker with a delay of game penalty two weeks ago. Pulling out a victory against Josh McCown and Tampa Bay isn’t anything to write home about, but Atlanta does get Carolina and Cleveland over the next two weeks before a stretch against Arizona and Green Bay. Carolina is right back in the thick of things, too, if it beats Philadelphia on Monday night.

One of the three teams in this group will host one of the six teams in Clump 1 in a wild-card game. That seems so stupid.

Clump 3: The Wild-Card Hopefuls
1. Arizona (8-1)
2. Detroit (7-2)
3. Philadelphia (6-2)
5. Dallas (7-3)
6. Seattle (6-3)
7. Green Bay (6-3)
8. San Francisco (5-4)

I’m not adding the ninth-ranked Vikings (4-5) to this grouping. Five of these seven teams will make the playoffs. The only addition to this group is the 49ers, who saved their season with that last-minute comeback against the Saints. At 4-5 and behind in the tiebreaker to the Cardinals, they would have been dead in the water with a loss to the Saints. Now, they at least have a glimmer of hope, albeit not much of one unless the Seahawks or Cardinals totally collapse.

Of course, even though they have the best record in football, the Cardinals might very well be the team that collapses. Losing a starting quarterback will do that to you.