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Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Any Given Sunday: 49ers over Saints FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Any Given Sunday: 49ers over Saints by Andrew Healy The interceptions have piled up in recent years for a quarterback that most of us (myself included) would ...

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Old 11-12-2014, 06:53 PM   #1
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Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Any Given Sunday: 49ers over Saints
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Any Given Sunday: 49ers over Saints

by Andrew Healy

The interceptions have piled up in recent years for a quarterback that most of us (myself included) would put in the class just below Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Here's the unfair stat question of the day: How many quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions in the last five years than Drew Brees? While you think about that one, consider the pass that Brees threw at the end of the first half against the 49ers.


While both throws were picked off by lurking zone defenders, the throw from Sunday's game is more representative of the defenses that have led to Brees's interceptions by leaving more men in coverage. No quarterback in football with at least 2,000 attempts since 2010 has faced fewer average pass rushers on his interceptions than Brees, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. On his 77 interceptions, Brees has faced an average of just 4.00 pass rushers. He has been blitzed on just 13 (17 percent) of those interceptions. Rather than blitzing, the better way to get Brees to throw picks has been to sit back.



On his non-interceptions, Brees has faced an average of 4.25 pass rushers. The difference between those two is smaller for Brees than any other quarterback. That negative number indicates that teams hoping to get an interception out of Brees should tend to keep more defenders back in coverage.

When teams do that, Brees has thrown quite a few picks. Only one player (Eli Manning) has thrown more interceptions than Brees' 77 since the start of the 2010 season. I said that was an unfair question before and it is, since Brees has thrown more than 250 more passes than any other quarterback during that time. Still, even his interception rate is roughly league average. For a quarterback who has the highest completion percentage in the league since 2010 and ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt, Brees has thrown a striking number of picks.

Brees ranks just ninth out of the 13 quarterbacks on the list in interception rate, behind Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo. Brees has thrown more interceptions than Brady and Rodgers combined on almost 1,800 fewer attempts. Brees is still great even despite the picks -- he has been in the top five quarterbacks by DVOA in five of the last six seasons, anyway -- but his propensity to make unnecessary throws into traffic is the flaw keeping him below the Rodgers/Manning class.


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Old 11-12-2014, 07:07 PM   #2
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Brees has always been aggressive mostly due to the fact that he's been throwing receivers open for years.

However, now he is not being aggressive with his decisions, he is being idiotic.

He did not even look at Jimmy Graham before firing that ball into triple coverage, he already knew he was throwing it there.

The guy has done and will continue to do so much for the organisation, however in a year where he doesn't have a defense to bail him out, he needs to understand that those bad decisions are absolutely killing us.

Obviously it doesn't help that Colston looks nothing like the franchise leader in receiving that he is, unfortunately I think this may be Colstons last season as a saint.
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Old 11-12-2014, 07:43 PM   #3
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Says more about the O line IMO.
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Old 11-12-2014, 08:03 PM   #4
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Originally Posted by saintsfan1976 View Post
Says more about the O line IMO.

Why?

Is it because Brees is the least sacked QB over the same period?
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Old 11-12-2014, 08:12 PM   #5
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

All it says about the O=line is that they are generally keeping the pressure of him.He isnt getting blitz and far too often trusts his ability to throw into double coverage.

The more we run the ball the more teams will have to push more players into box and it will stop teams dropping so many players into coverage.
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Old 11-12-2014, 09:19 PM   #6
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

I like the perspective from an outside source for objectivity. We Saints fans look at Brees at times (or for some always) with black & gold-colored glasses. I'm not the least bit surprised at the analysis, and I believe it is a fair assessment.

And I love the reference to Colston in a previous post...I think Drew has lost some faith in him, and while I don't believe it's the reason Drew is throwing more picks, it certainly can't help. Colston has been reliable for him since 2006, but Colston's garbage this year has Drew looking for other receivers (throwing off the timing of plays) or forcing balls into coverage more often.

Losing faith in someone that Drew has targeted regularly for 8.5 years plus losing a dangerous outlet receiver when things break down in Sproles has done some pretty good damage to this passing game.
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Old 11-12-2014, 09:20 PM   #7
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

WORD
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Old 11-12-2014, 09:40 PM   #8
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Mmhmm.
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Old 11-12-2014, 10:47 PM   #9
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Originally Posted by blackangold View Post
Why?

Is it because Brees is the least sacked QB over the same period?
Yea why? The article just said he is more efficient when blitzed. Which I would think would be a credit to the O line
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Old 11-12-2014, 11:05 PM   #10
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Re: Football Outsider on Brees' Picks

Brees listed at 6 feet tall and 35 years old, guess it's getting harder to see over the O line. Wonder how the Saints vision/eyeglass plan is.
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