this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Interesting Draft day stats for Quarterbacks : Unless he went to Michigan, don't take a quarterback after the second round The numbers just don't lie. It doesn't work out to take a quarterback late so if teams are going to ...
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|01-11-2003, 01:31 AM||#1|
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Join Date: Jul 2002
Draft Day Stat
Interesting Draft day stats for Quarterbacks :
Unless he went to Michigan, don't take a quarterback after the second round
The numbers just don't lie. It doesn't work out to take a quarterback late so if teams are going to take one, they should do it in the first two rounds. Looking from 1989 to 1999 (we're saying it takes at least two years to judge a quarterback), there were 28 quarterbacks taken in the first and second rounds. Out of those 28, half of them (Troy Aikman, Jeff George, Brett Favre, Drew Bledsoe, Trent Dilfer, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Kordell Stewart, Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Charlie Batch, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper) can be classified as legitimate NFL starters at their peak. If you add Shaun King, who did take Tampa Bay to a NFC title game, and Tony Banks, that's 16 out of 28 who didn't bust.
Now look at the third round on. Out of the 107 quarterbacks taken after the second round from 1989 to 1999, we'd only classify ten (Rodney Peete, Scott Mitchell, Neil O'Donnell, Brad Johnson, Jeff Blake, Trent Green, Elvis Grbac, Mark Brunell, Brian Griese and Aaron Brooks) as legitimate NFL starters. We'll allow Jim Miller and Rob Johnson when they prove they can stay healthy for more than ten minutes and will only allow Ty Detmer and Gus Frerotte if King and Banks are accepted as legitimate players. Out of those 107 quarterbacks, none were starting quarterbacks on a Super Bowl winning team and only Neil O'Donnell started in one. Tom Brady, a 6th rounder in 2000, is the glaring exception to the rule.
First and second round quarterbacks started in nine Super Bowls (not counting Kordell Stewart as a wide receiver) and have five Super Bowl wins. Even worse, (taking Brady out of the equation) only O'Donnell and Brunell were starters on teams that got to a conference championship. Compare that to the 17 conference title games that the first and second rounders started in during that same span.
[Edited on 11/1/2003 by saintz08]
|01-11-2003, 10:50 AM||#2|
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Draft Day Stat
Wow - those are some good stats. I\'m sure you guys have heard this already this year, but... did you know...
No team with a top five running back (by yards) made the playoffs this year. Only one (the Giants - Tiki Barber was 7th) made it from the top ten. In fact of the playoff teams this year their running backs ranked
7th - Tiki Barber (first rounf loss)
12th - Ahman Green (first round loss)
14th - Eddie George (bye)
15th - Curtis Martin (first round win)
16th - Duce Staley (bye)
18th - Edgerrin James (first round loss)
21st - Garrison Hearst (first round win)
22nd - Charlie Garner (bye)
24th - Warrick Dunn (first round win)
25th - William Green (first round loss)
28th - Amos Zereoue (first round win) - he was behing Vick!
Tampa doesn\'t even have a gu in the top 30.
However, their quarterbacks, sorted by passer efficiency, ranked:
1st - Chad Pennington (first round win)
3rd - Rich Gannon (bye)
4th - Kelly Holcomb (first round loss) - he started in the playoff game
5th - Brad Johnson (bye)
7th - Peyton Manning (first round loss)
10th - Donovan McNabb (bye)
14th - Brett Favre (first rounf loss)
15th - Jeff Garcia (first round win)
16th - Kerry Collins (first round loss)
18th - Tomy Maddox (first round win)
19th - Steve McNair (bye)
20th - Michael Vick (first round win) (one better than Brooks - hehe).
That means in terms of running backs, the playoff teams had 0 tops 5 guys, 1 top ten guys, 4 top 15, and 5 ranked lower than 20. But as far as quarterbacks go they had 4 top 5, 6 to p10, 8 top 15, and 0 lower than 20.
That\'s bad news for the Saints. Deuce ranked 6th and Aaron ranked 21st. Maybe we have the wrong formula...?
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