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Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Each week I will use record analysis against certain divisions, home and road patterns to come to a consensual conclusion to how the end result should go. On paper this is a winnable game. However, I have said this before ...

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Old 11-05-2015, 04:04 PM   #1
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Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

Each week I will use record analysis against certain divisions, home and road patterns to come to a consensual conclusion to how the end result should go.

On paper this is a winnable game. However, I have said this before we have the type of offense that may not completely stick to the run against a team like this. If there is one ood game we have the best chance to lose, look no further than this one. Now with what said let me work the numbers.

Saints record against AFC divisions since 2011
4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3

Saints would appear here to be either 2-2 or 4-0. But could 3-1 be the highest they could go now? So really it can be anywhere. Next year against the AFC West we host broncos and raiders and play SD(or should I say LAC), where Brees is 2-0 against since leaving, on the road along with KC. I can see 3-1 against this division. So with that said going 3-1 back to back seasons does not make sense unless we lose to two teams next year(Denver and KC or SD and KC). So I am calling 2-2 or 4-0. Meaning this game could make or break our postseason chances.

Titans record against NFC divisions since 2011
2-2, 1-3, 1-3, 0-4

The two seasons before they were 4-0 and 3-1. The titans have had a predictable showing here but a jump can happen anytime. The titans can reverse from 0-4 and go 2-2, then 3-1, then 4-0. Or they can start from the top and go 3-1, including beating Carolina. Technically they should be 1-3 or 3-1. Next year they play the NFC North, which includes home games against GB and Minnesota and road games at Chicago and Detroit. I think it is highly likely they lose to GB but they could very well win in both Chicago and Detroit(the road team has won the last three Chicago/Tennessee meetings), especially if Detroit still has offensive problems. So if they go 1-3(beating only TB) they could make the jump next year to 3-1.

Now if you take a look at Carolina's numbers since 2011
3-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2-1
They have already gone 3-0. So I think they skipped over 4-0 and will go back to where they skipped or because of the tie last year could go to 3-1. The tie can interpreted as 1 win or 2 losses. It can be very hard to use numbers in such scenario without factoring in teams playing against them.

Now next up is the home and road splits

For the saints at home since 2011
2-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2

The 0-2 really sticks out. They have gone back and forth between 2-0 and 1-1 from 09-13. So the 0-2 would indicate 1-1 is next which is scary.

Now the titans on the road since 2011
1-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-2
Going back before that from 05-10 they were 0-2, 2-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0

The 0-2, 1-1, 0-2 is scary and could be trending towards 2-0 instead of a back and forth with 1-1 and 0-2.

So what ends up happening here? Both patterns completely support Tennessee losing to us but the number patterns also supports us losing to them.

So this is the one game that can really go either way. But I will elaborate on this.

Tennessee week 1 beat down TB, gave Atlanta a hard time(but so did other teams), gave Buffalo a hard time. Last year took a road win in KC and tried to win in Washington. They are also coming off a road loss and stay in the southwest region another week(Texas/Louisiana) so they aren't doing much traveling. The good news is we may not have to play MM. The bad news is their defense is not to laugh at and if SP gets cute in playcalling our defense will be tasked with doing a lot of bailing out. Brees has a tendency to throw boneheaded interceptions, and throwing them against a team like this is the last thing you can do. Even Brees in his post game interview on WWL said this was a big matchup. McCourty is not someone to throw at. I hope Brees is smart here not to throw towards him. And the DC also is Dick Lebeau btw.
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Old 11-05-2015, 04:21 PM   #2
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Re: Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

Dick Lebeau at DC...forgot about that. He'll have them ready.

And watch Dexter McCluster on Special Teams...we can't cover crap for returns.
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Old 11-05-2015, 04:30 PM   #3
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Re: Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

I won't take the Titans lightly.

If you don't bring your A game, expect a L.
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:27 PM   #4
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Re: Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

Originally Posted by K Major View Post
I won't take the Titans lightly.

If you don't bring your A game, expect a L.
So true K, but if we do bring our A-game, its an easy win.

And if we bring a B-game, its probably a win.

The problem over the last several years is that sometimes when we play a C-team, we bring our C-game.

Surely this 2015 team can be over-confident, can they?
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:06 PM   #5
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Re: Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

Originally Posted by Danno View Post
So true K, but if we do bring our A-game, its an easy win.

And if we bring a B-game, its probably a win.

The problem over the last several years is that sometimes when we play a C-team, we bring our C-game.

Surely this 2015 team can be over-confident, can they?
No such thing as an easy win in the NFL.
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:12 PM   #6
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Re: Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

Originally Posted by NonieT View Post
No such thing as an easy win in the NFL.
Considering we have a defense where it doesn't seem any lead is safe & a 3-4 Dick Lebeau defense, you got that right concerning this Sunday.

If I remember right, Payton & Brees doesn't do too well versus 3-4. Linebackers give Brees fits underneath in the passing game...Woodyard isn't big but is faster than typical middle linebackers.

Micheal Griffin at FS ain't nothing to sneeze at, either.

I have a feeling it's gonna be a close game. We'd better bring it all 15 for all 4.
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Old 11-06-2015, 12:48 AM   #7
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Re: Comparing past records, Titans@Saints

The way Brees has bounced back and is more confidant in his receivers should light up the Titans secondary.
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