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Is our offense worth sacrificing to wait for 2017?

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by burningmetal Defense is the first priority, in my opinion, but as far as those stats go... Here's the only thing that matters. 2011 Offense - 34.2 PPG 2015 Offense - 25.5 PPG Our offense is alright right ...

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Old 02-13-2016, 10:57 AM   #11
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Re: Is our offense worth sacrificing to wait for 2017?

Originally Posted by burningmetal View Post
Defense is the first priority, in my opinion, but as far as those stats go... Here's the only thing that matters.

2011 Offense - 34.2 PPG
2015 Offense - 25.5 PPG

Our offense is alright right now, but that's an enormous drop off. Pure stats discount a lot of factors, on their own merit, and do not provide any perspective. Sometimes the numbers match the performance, and sometimes they don't come close. I say it all the time, and if you ever needed an example there is none better than the above.

When you're just throwing it around, and desperately trying to keep up, you tend to pile up yards. But when you're predictable like that, your drives will often stall, leading to the huge discrepancy in points per game. Also, when you're ahead late in games, you want to run the clock out, whereas from behind you are often getting garbage yards.

There's no question that, aside from what we did against the Panthers in the dome, we haven't had an offense that can compete with top defenses like it used to.
I have always been against point per game being the accurate measure of offense.

Score points is a team effort including defense and special teams. Better starting field position along with defensive and special team scoring plays a big factor in PPG.

The YPG measure can also be skewed, worse teams will have more garbage time yards, pick your poison I guess.
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Old 02-13-2016, 11:45 AM   #12
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Re: Is our offense worth sacrificing to wait for 2017?

Originally Posted by blackangold View Post
I have always been against point per game being the accurate measure of offense.

Score points is a team effort including defense and special teams. Better starting field position along with defensive and special team scoring plays a big factor in PPG.

The YPG measure can also be skewed, worse teams will have more garbage time yards, pick your poison I guess.
Agreed, thats why its difficult to analyze anything with a singular stat.

Great passing teams may have a high yard per rush because they run a lot of draws that can skew the YPC stat, and vice versa.

Bend but don't break defenses give up a lot of yards, but their PPG is low.
Attacking defenses may have low PPG but give up more big plays.

Unfortunately in our case we rank near dead last in every meaningful defensive stat.
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Old 02-13-2016, 11:51 AM   #13
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Re: Is our offense worth sacrificing to wait for 2017?

I think "Total Defense" should be an average rank of...

Points against per game (given up by the defense only)
Yards against per game
Yards against per play
3rd down conversion %
Yards per rush
Yards per pass
Penalty yards
Takeaways
Red zone TD%
Red zone FG %
Red zone stops

I'll bet if you averaged every teams rank in those categories you'd truly see how good or bad your defense is.

I'm pretty sure we'd still rank last.
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Old 02-14-2016, 02:34 PM   #14
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Re: Is our offense worth sacrificing to wait for 2017?

I think Fontenot is in charge of pro scouting. I'm not sure if he does a bad job or if the FO does a bad job of informing the scouts of a clearly defined plan. We brought in a new head college scout last year I believe and we drafted much better. Especially on defense which is where Jeff Ireland has the credentials to show that last year wasn't a fluke and he can evaluate talent.
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