Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season

spkb25 · 05-02-2017, 03:20 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Vegas odds have nothing to do with what the odds makers think will happen. It has everything to do with how they view the public's perception. If they feel the majority of the betting public thinks the Saints while win less than 8.5 games they are are actually banking on the Saints winning MORE than 8.5 games.

I'll take that over bet in a minute.

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

hagan714 · 05-02-2017, 04:15 PM

2018 Draft
Top 16
bottom 16

only two possibilities.

AsylumGuido · 05-02-2017, 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by spkb25

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.

SaintFanInATLHELL · 05-02-2017, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by ScottF

You are correct as always, Professor, but...
wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5?
there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido

would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

Utah_Saint · 05-02-2017, 04:50 PM

Originally Posted by spkb25

good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

AsylumGuido · 05-02-2017, 05:05 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house.

So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better.

But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line.

SFIAH

Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line.

Yes. It is art.

AsylumGuido · 05-02-2017, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by Utah_Saint

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

Guess that means I would have pushed.

spkb25 · 05-02-2017, 05:20 PM

Originally Posted by Utah_Saint

Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

I do too, but is it enough? We are getting very close.

spkb25 · 05-02-2017, 05:21 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries.

so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?

AsylumGuido · 05-02-2017, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by spkb25

so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?

Expect that Rankins will break another leg? Expect that P.J. will get sandwiched the exact same way? Expect that Delvin Breaux will break another leg? Expect that Vacarro will serve another suspension?

No. I don't expect any of that.

05-02-2017, 03:20 PM	#31
spkb25 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 13,057	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Vegas odds have nothing to do with what the odds makers think will happen. It has everything to do with how they view the public's perception. If they feel the majority of the betting public thinks the Saints while win less than 8.5 games they are are actually banking on the Saints winning MORE than 8.5 games. I'll take that over bet in a minute. good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost

05-02-2017, 04:15 PM	#32
hagan714 LB Mentallity Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,870 Blog Entries: 68	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season 2018 Draft Top 16 bottom 16 only two possibilities.

05-02-2017, 04:17 PM	#33
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,391	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by spkb25 good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries. Danno, hagan714 and saintsfan1976 like this.

05-02-2017, 04:43 PM	#34
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,647	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by ScottF You are correct as always, Professor, but... wouldn't you feel better if the O/U was 10.5 and not 8.5? there is some science with the algorithm that popped out the number 8.5 I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

05-02-2017, 04:50 PM	#35
Utah_Saint Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Salt Lake City, Utah Posts: 3,521	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by spkb25 good thing you didnt take it last year, you would have lost Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved.

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05-02-2017, 05:05 PM	#36
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,391	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL I described the science: the psychology of gamblers. If the O/U were set to 4 games, everyone would take the over and the house would likely have a massive payout at the end of the season. Conversely, if the O/U were set to 12.5 everyone but Guido would take the under with the same problem for the house. So how I feel about it is irrelevant. A line of 10.5 means that about half the gamblers perceive that we'll win at least 11 games. Now that filters previous performance, schedule, and new acquisitions in the offseason. It means that people think we're going to be better. But each and every year, some unexpected team jumps up while some consistent playoff team falls. So often the results do not match the expectation. So it's unlikely that there is true science attached to the line. SFIAH Correct. It's not really a science. Odds making is more of an art (combined with a study of human behavior). In the case of an over/under the odds maker uses his/her determination of what is most likely and nudges it up, or down, to try to insure that the majority of money bet will be on that opposite side of what he/she truly feels. If the odds making truly felt the REAL number would be at 10.5 games the uneducated betting public would heavily bet the under meaning the book loses big at 10 wins or less. But, if you push it down to 8.5 you have an extra 2 game pad. The public will still bet the under at a lower rate than 10.5, but still at slightly higher rate than the over and the exposure of the book is greatly lessened. Odds become highly in their favor that they will cover on the line. Yes. It is art.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

05-02-2017, 05:06 PM	#37
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,391	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by Utah_Saint Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved. Guess that means I would have pushed.

05-02-2017, 05:20 PM	#38
spkb25 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 13,057	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by Utah_Saint Last year the over/under was 7. Looks like Vegas believes the Saints have improved. I do too, but is it enough? We are getting very close.

05-02-2017, 05:21 PM	#39
spkb25 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 13,057	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Nobody anticipated the way the defense would be decimated by injuries. so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl?

05-02-2017, 05:27 PM	#40
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,391	Re: Vegas betting Saints have a disappointing season Originally Posted by spkb25 so should we expect it this year since most of these guys have been hurt their first 2 seasons in the nfl? Expect that Rankins will break another leg? Expect that P.J. will get sandwiched the exact same way? Expect that Delvin Breaux will break another leg? Expect that Vacarro will serve another suspension? No. I don't expect any of that. Danno likes this.

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