Go Back   New Orleans Saints - blackandgold.com > Main > Saints

An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for ...

Like Tree13Likes

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-19-2017, 07:52 PM   #1
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,731
An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.
WillSaints81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2017, 07:59 PM   #2
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Madison, WI
Posts: 4,967
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP
Not a single person has said that. I didn't read the rest.
WW_Who_Dat likes this.
ChrisXVI is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2017, 08:00 PM   #3
10000 POST CLUB
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
Posts: 10,525
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

Alright, alright, alright

That's a really long post with some analysis of something.

If we are going to lose always better to be an AFC opponent vs NFC.
spkb25 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2017, 08:26 PM   #4
5000 POSTS! +
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Bossier City, LA
Posts: 5,490
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

Haven't seen anything worth reading before now so I'm skipping this novella as a probable waste of time.
AsylumGuido is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2017, 08:57 PM   #5
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Woodlands
Posts: 23,029
Blog Entries: 29
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

K.I.S.S. Principle

Let's keep things simple... if we're not 3-1 after the first quarter of the season, we really have not improved or improved much.
saintsfan1976 and jeanpierre like this.
SmashMouth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2017, 09:14 PM   #6
500th Post
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 992
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

I can see scenerio-A with the 9-7 prediction being the most probable. Avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington is highly attainable. Now, does that get a wild card or win the division? We'll see
WillMacKenzie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2017, 10:34 PM   #7
Site Donor 2016
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 5,217
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 View Post
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.
I have yet to read anything but I just wanted to reply beforehand and thank you for your brilliance.
The Dude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2017, 09:09 AM   #8
Site Donor
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bayou Bayfield CO
Posts: 4,396
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

Anal what?
Seer1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2017, 12:24 PM   #9
1000 Posts +
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,968
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

Originally Posted by WillSaints81 View Post
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.


I have yet to read anything but I just wanted to reply beforehand and thank you for your brilliance.


Originally Posted by WillSaints81 View Post
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.

Let's see how many copies of the copies of the copies..........we can put on here so it takes 3 pages to read the last comment!
hagan714 and AsylumGuido like this.
vpheughan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2017, 04:51 PM   #10
Bounty Money $$$
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA.
Posts: 15,423
Re: An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Haven't seen anything worth reading before now so I'm skipping this novella as a probable waste of time.

Go ahead and read it. All he's doing is giving us a history lesson. History is long and boring too but if we learn from history then we are not doomed to repeat our mistakes. I totally agree with his lengthy analysis!!!

Edit: And I'm not going to nitpick his thinking process either........
Rugby Saint II is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules

LinkBacks (?)
LinkBack to this Thread: http://blackandgold.com/saints/83899-analyzation-season-terms-wins-losses.html
Posted By For Type Date Hits
The Latest New Orleans Saints News | SportSpyder This thread Refback 08-19-2017 10:20 PM 3
An analyzation of this season in terms of wins and losses This thread Refback 08-19-2017 08:13 PM 1


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:02 PM.


Copyright 1997 - 2014 - BlackandGold.com
no new posts