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GoldenTomb 04-13-2005 11:04 AM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
It's inevitable. It happens every year. Every year a player slips past where he should have gone. I wonder what some of you think about the several possible scenarios and when we should pull the trigger on trading up.

Also I know many of you are against the idea of trading up for ANYONE, so I guess this post doesn't apply to a group of you.

Derrick Johnson - The most consensus most coveted pick for Saints fans. I think that if he is still on the board at 6, we should exhaust all possible trade scenarios with Tennessee to try to move up to nab him. I think that our first, Howard, and a third is an appropriate offer for this pick. Maybe a late round pick in addition to this is the absolute most I would be willing to give up for him. If we are trying to get DJ, then I don't think a trade with Dallas will be feasible because some team who has NEVER expressed interest in DJ will trade up to get him(like Philly). He won't be there at the Cowboys pick.

Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers - I think that if either of these QBs falls out of the top 6 then they will likely fall to the Saints. As much as I detest Brooks this is not a huge need area and can be addressed in the later rounds. However if miraculously either of these players lasts past the top 6 and falls to the Saints, then it's a no brainer that you pick them. Highly unlikely scenario.

Mike Williams - If he lasts past Minnesota's pick, I say try to put together a trade to get him. Why? Two reasons. One, the guy is a phenomenal specimen and has done nothing but be spectacular at USC. Two, it means that DJ will have been picked already. No way both of them last that late.

saintswhodi 04-13-2005 11:20 AM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
Agreed on all points, except if Smith or Rodgers are still available at 16, maybe a team like Green Bay will wanna move up to get them. Maybe we can swap firsts with them and get back our second for the McKenzie deal to move back to their spot. That would give us a first and two second. Then depending on what we get for Howard, could be as much as 3 seconds. So we could go LB or Carlos Rogers if still available in the first, or Khalif Barnes or Jamaal Brown, depending who is there, and we could go bucknutty withthree seconds and a third.

BRSaintsFan 04-13-2005 11:26 AM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
I am not opposed to moving up for DJ if he falls. But Im not ready to invest our first and our second just because I feel that we can grab two sound starters with those two picks. However, your scenario of Howard, swapping firsts, and giving up a third, I wouldnt mind that at all. I feel thats fair compensation. I would take Smith if he fell to us but not Rodgers even though I think that neither will. Depending on the compensation for Williams, I would think about it. However, I think this draft has some solid wideouts in later rounds that we can take a chance on or even develop. Two weeks til the speculation is over!!!!!!!

LKelley67 04-13-2005 01:00 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
dunno who it was tomb, but in another thread someone said draft chart values are out the window this year. this is open turf for any opinion no matter how extreme. but there is nothing to back that supposition up. draft value charts have been used very hard line and precisely for several many years. that is why ya see a 5th to 7th rounder thrown in a deal, just to balance it up. i haven\'t made a study of it but have looked up enough past trades to say if there is any imbalance you will find the team trading up being the one to sacrifice value.

the saints picks and value:
16-1000
40-500
82-180
118-58
152-30.6
193-14.2
232-1

the upper end pick values starting with TN, the highest i think they could reach realistically:
6-1600
7-1500
8-1400
9-1350
10-1300
11-1250
12-1200

so, ya can say dj is worth a 1st n 3rd to you. but you would never get to pick #6 with that imo. the saints 1st and 2nd= 1500 or #7. to #6 takes another 100 pts which would require swapping some other picks tadditionally to balance. say titans 4th #108=78 for saints 3rd #82=180. as much as i love the dewd as a prospect that is very spendy considering the other team needs. thge lowest drop scenario for him i have is to det. #10 or dal #11. both of those teams would be thrilled to get him there and it would require even more premium to get the slot from them.

also, why the fo has stated if howard isn\'t traded by draft day that they will keep him is cuz any trade to another team will require him having a contract deal agreed to with that other team. that could possibly happen with dallas since they have agreed to terms (just not agreement between the teams on compensation). otherwise, it would be all but impossible to come to terms while the clock is ticking for pick selections.

sorry for that longwinded discourse. dj? i wouldn\'t be disappointed if they went up for him. i do think the addition of two or three players like brown/barnes, burnett/blackstock/thurman/ruud, and webster/washington could have as much overall impact though.

the lowest i have smith or rodgers pegged is arz at #8. but if by some weirdness it did occur them dropping it is a force pick on value, like will smith last year.

my prediction is that both edwards and m. williams will be gone by #4. they are coveted so much and so many of the top teams want to move down that another team moving up to get them will be no surprise.

of the upper echelon players the one i think that could slip down the most is cadillac williams. if the cards fill their need with travis henry he could slip past the top ten until he becomes a can\'t-let-him-fall-any-further pick for someone (like houston).

natedogg02 04-13-2005 01:00 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
Moving up to get DJ prob wont happen, giving a proving player and 2 picks for a unproved rookie. Can we even afford to pay another top 6 pick? Plus our FO likes our LB\'s i think. (we will add one in the 2nd). With our 1st pick we will take BPA and then start getting what we need with the others.

LKelley67 04-13-2005 01:16 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
i count howard as 500-750 pts, low first to high second round.

GoldenTomb 04-13-2005 01:21 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
Quote:

Moving up to get DJ prob wont happen, giving a proving player and 2 picks for a unproved rookie. Can we even afford to pay another top 6 pick? Plus our FO likes our LB\'s i think. (we will add one in the 2nd). With our 1st pick we will take BPA and then start getting what we need with the others.
Well I\'ve said it before, but we ARE unloading Howard, like it or not. $7.8 mil for someone that won\'t play every down is unacceptable. Doesn\'t make sense finacially. Can we afford to pay another top 6 pick....in short, yes. Signing bonuses can do wonderful things, my friend. This post wasn\'t about determining the probability of if it will or won\'t happen. It\'s just to talk about scenarios which would make it possible.

LKelley,

Your draft value numbers don\'t account for the fact that Howard would be part of the proposed trade. If you factor in that his value seems to be equivalent to a second rounder, you\'ll see that the trade would be very feasible and attractive to both teams in my opinioin. They need someone to take the place of DE-DT Kevin Carter, and Howard would be a cheaper option for them. Furthermore, I think that the FO meant that if Howard isn\'t traded on Draft day that he will be retained, regardless of what they actually said.

saintswhodi 04-13-2005 01:22 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
Kelley, if you count Howard as such value, then GT\'s proposal makes absolute sense. If a 6 is worth 1600, and our 16 is worth 1000, and Howard if 500 to 750 points alone, then a swap for Howard and our first for #6 seems like it would work fine to me. And GT even threw in the third to ensure it, hell a 4th should by those calculations.

LKelley67 04-13-2005 02:06 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
yes, it could work with howard. but TN has absolutely no interest in taking on a big contract. they already let go of de-dt kevin carter cuz they couldnt afford him. howard wants more than the $30mil for 5 yrs they could have resigned him for. and as stated, a contract deal would have to be worked out with howard by the receiving team before a trade could work also. possible, but highly improbable to get done while the clock is ticking on draft day.

GoldenTomb 04-13-2005 02:22 PM

Falling draft hopefuls
 
Well...in the Titans\' case, we can replace Howard with Fred Thomas. They ARE looking for a CB, no? We would be happy to unload him and they would be happy to get a CB that will soften the blow from losing Samari Rolle.

Our first, third and Fred Thomas for DJ. Sounds even better, especially if we trade Howard for Oaktown\'s second. We\'d have DJ, plus two seconds, and would have created a whole lot of cap space. WHO WOULD ARGUE WITH THAT!?

[Edited on 13/4/2005 by GoldenTomb]


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