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Path to the Number 1 Seed

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Assuming the Saints win out... We need Philly to lose one more (plus a few other ifs and buts). Remaining schedule-- @ LAR @ NYG Vs OAK Vs DAL We need Minny to lose two more. Remaining schedule-- @ CAR ...

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Old 12-06-2017, 10:34 AM   #1
 
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Path to the Number 1 Seed

Assuming the Saints win out...

We need Philly to lose one more (plus a few other ifs and buts).
Remaining schedule--
@ LAR
@ NYG
Vs OAK
Vs DAL

We need Minny to lose two more.
Remaining schedule--
@ CAR
Vs CIN
@ GB
Vs CHI

We need LA to lose one more.
Remaining schedule--
Vs PHI
@ SEA
@ TEN
Vs SF
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Old 12-06-2017, 11:26 AM   #2
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

Just do what we do and let the chips fall where they may...
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Old 12-06-2017, 12:13 PM   #3
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

We may be able to exclude the Rams from this discussion because if they finish tied with Seattle, and Seattle beats the Rams in two weeks, the Rams lose the division on the head to head. With Seattle already a game behind the Saints they no longer factor into the equation.

The shortest and best scenario is:

1. Saints win out
2. Minnesota loses to the Kitties.
3. Philly loses to the Rams

Here are the tiebreakers:


2(*). Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Not applicable as Philly played neither the Saints nor Minnesota.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
All three tied up at 12-2 with Saints losses to Minnesota and Rams, Minnesota losses to Lions and Kitties, and Eagles losses to Seattle and Rams. BTW if the Rams joined the 13-3 party, they would be drop out at this point because they already have 3 conference losses. And Seattle cannot get to 13-3.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
All three have identical 4-1 with 4 common opponents (Panthers, Bears, Rams, Redskins) with Minnesota with a loss to the Panthers, Saints with a loss to the Rams, and Eagles with a loss to the Rams.
5. Strength of victory.
Here is the winner. The Saints currently have a .472 strength of victory which is a few percentage points ahead of Minnesota at .467 and well ahead of the Eagles (0.375) according to:

2017 NFL Playoff Standings - National Football League - ESPN

With both Minnesota and the Eagles taking an additional loss, this will only improve the Saints number I believe. So finishing ahead of the other two should track.

So the Saints do not necessarily have to finish ahead of Minnesota. Ending up tied with the proper common game setup can propel the Saints to the #1 spot.

(*) The first tiebreaker is to sort out the division winners. The Saints, Vikings, and Eagles each finishing at 13-3 ensures that each of the three would be a division winner to apply the wildcard/Home Field tiebreakers.

SFIAH

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Old 12-06-2017, 01:15 PM   #4
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

Win tomorrow
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Old 12-06-2017, 04:57 PM   #5
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

Originally Posted by |Mitch| View Post
Just do what we do and let the chips fall where they may...
^This.
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:48 PM   #6
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

If we can win out, I think the 2 seed is in play.

Right now I’ll take the 4 seed and be happy.

I saw the saints lose their last 4 before when all they needed was 1 win to go to the playoffs.

Yeah, I’m overly paranoid I know, but the older members know exactly why.
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Old 12-06-2017, 08:41 PM   #7
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

If you go to espn playoff machine and plug in a Saints, Panthers and Rams win this week - the Saints are the #1 seed on strength of victory.

We win a 4 way tie with Rams, Vikings, and Eagles.

And we win 3 way tie with Eagles and Vikings OR Eagles and Rams.

We lose a 3 way tie with Rams and Vikings since we lost to both.


The key is to either finish with the best record OR to finish in a 3 or 4 way tie with the best record AND have the Eagles as part of that tie.
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Old 12-06-2017, 08:44 PM   #8
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

2017 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN
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Old 12-06-2017, 08:48 PM   #9
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

Beat the next team on the schedule and everything will take care of itself. We just need to take care of that business
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Old 12-06-2017, 09:58 PM   #10
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Re: Path to the Number 1 Seed

Originally Posted by CheramieIII View Post
Beat the next team on the schedule and everything will take care of itself. We just need to take care of that business
Taking care of business is always the first order of business. It's the core foundation because all the positive possibilities start with winning.

So while taking care of business is necessary, I find it helpful to see how the other pieces can fit. ArSaints summary was excellent.

SFIAH
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