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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Using the last 4 years as a gauge, the Saints have done well when that have done a BPA pick in the 1st round (Smith, McAllister), OK when picking for need (Stallworth), and flat terrible when they traded up to ...

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Old 04-23-2005, 09:04 AM   #1
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

Using the last 4 years as a gauge, the Saints have done well when that have done a BPA pick in the 1st round (Smith, McAllister), OK when picking for need (Stallworth), and flat terrible when they traded up to Sullivan.

That trend serves as evidence for my latest thesis: the Saints must pick superior talent to overcome the inevitable coaching and organizational obstacles that our picks will face.

So the question is can we pick superior talent especially in our area of need?

The board consensus seems to be that LB is the most serious need to be filled. However I've seen a bunch of posts where folks are talking about trading down.

Personally I think that's a bad idea because of my thesis. We don't need a lot of good players, we need superior players in athleticism, smarts, leadership, and heart to propel the franchise forward. And because of Sullivan (who fails in the last 2 areas, and is marginal in the first 2) we can't trust our own scouting departments to make that assesment. So for picks #16 we really need to get top 10 talent, and for #40 we need to get 1st round talent.

Now at LB the only top 10 talent is DJ Johnson. The question is how well does he fit into the 4 categories above? Is he worth a reach?

Next is Thomas Davis. His only downside is that his safety cover skills are suspect. But if he's playing LB then what's his downside?

Then who is the Darren Howard of the draft for #40? Howard was projected in the 1st round but dropped due to injury. He has played to form: 1st round talent in an injury plagued career.

If the Saints drop out of the 1st round, then what superior talent can they get?

Note that we cannot fix the real problem right now, which is getting a better organization to surround the players.

So what's the stopgap? Reach for DJ, take Davis at 16 because he's a stud LB but not a stud safety? Do we pick the BPA at #16 even if it's out of our need area and fill the LB need with one of the also rans (Ruud, Burnette, Merriman)

My current feeling is to take Davis at 16. I've had a chance to watch him during his career at Georgia. He's a stud.

What's your choice?

SFIAH
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Old 04-23-2005, 09:13 AM   #2
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

SaintFanInATLHELL --

No offense. But I think you are way off base.

That trend serves as evidence for my latest thesis: the Saints must pick superior talent to overcome the inevitable coaching and organizational obstacles that our picks will face.
It\'s so easy to blame poor coaching for the problems. But maybe the problem has been just a pure lack of talent a \"key\" positions and has very little to do with poor coaching?

Do you consider Jon Fox a good coach?

Fox went 7-9 without good talent.

Do you consider Jon Gruden a good coach?

Jon Fox went 5-11 without good talent.

Do you consider Bill Parcells a good coach?

Parcells went what? 6-10?

It seeems to me that coaching hasn\'t been the problem. The problem has been that we\'ve simply had a lack of talent.

Bill Parcells isn\'t going to do much until he gets some talent in Dallas.

Jon Gruden isn\'t going to do much until he gets more talent.

John Fox isn\'t going to do anything in Carolina, either. Not until he gets more talent.

The Saints have a lot of talent. But the problem is that we have a lot of sub-standard talent at \"key\" positions.

That\'s my opinion anyway. Not saying coaching hasn\'t been part of the problem.

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Old 04-23-2005, 09:23 AM   #3
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

Interesting twist on the subject.

My thing is....DJ should be at the top of our draft board, regardless of whether he is going to fall to us or not. Our most glaring need is LB without a doubt. The top linebacker in the draft is DJ, without a doubt. Why would we not at least MAKE A PLAY to get this guy??? It\'s simple logic. Whether or not we actually will be able to is a moot point if we don\'t even think about it. This is what scares me about the organization. A part of me thinks that we would\'ve heard something about drafting him if they actually had plans to do so. NFL insiders have a hard time keeping their mouths shut with valuable information like that. On the other hand, maybe the Saints officials are being really tight lipped about it and will hit a team like Tenn out of the blue with an offer they can\'t refuse. I don\'t know....

DJ is my number one. Davis seems like he would turn out to be a pretty good player, but DJ has pro-bowl talent. LBs this good don\'t bust. Look at recent draft history...the only one comparable to his talent level is Arrington(which I\'ve said repeatedly) and look how well he turned out. I wouldn\'t be mad at the Davis pick, but I hope they definitely make a play for DJ.

If anyone can make a compelling argument as to why we shouldn\'t pursue DJ, I wanna hear it. All I have been seeing is people trying to cut him down based on ticky tack criticisms that all of the top picks bear the week before Draft Day. Yet they have not said how their linebacker(Burnett, Ruud, Davis) is better than DJ, because they can\'t!

I will not rag on someone else\'s LB pick, but I will say that whoever it is simply isn\'t better than DJ.
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Old 04-23-2005, 09:28 AM   #4
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

GoldenTomb --

I\'m with ya!!

DJ is my pick.

Let\'s face it. The draft is a gamble. Some picks are less risky than others. DJ is about as safe of a pick as a team could make.

If we draft DJ and he goes on to be a probowl LB, then our draft will be a huge success. Regardless of whether or not any of our other picks pan out!!

Sometimes you have to take a risks to be rewarded.


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Old 04-23-2005, 09:31 AM   #5
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

Did you guys see the new video on him on NFL.com?

Wow! Has some combine footage it\'s about 3 min, worth checking out.
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Old 04-23-2005, 09:40 AM   #6
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

dj won\'t be there..........davis and carlos rogers may.....and all ot\'s should be there.........just depends how many trades........
if carlos falls and davis is gone, i would say carlos.......if both, you may see the best ot taken..........smitty
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Old 04-23-2005, 09:46 AM   #7
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

SaintFanInATLHELL --

No offense. But I think you are way off base.
DRAFT DAY DEBATE!!! BRING IT ON!!!!

That trend serves as evidence for my latest thesis: the Saints must pick superior talent to overcome the inevitable coaching and organizational obstacles that our picks will face.
It\'s so easy to blame poor coaching for the problems. But maybe the problem has been just a pure lack of talent a \"key\" positions and has very little to do with poor coaching?
Note that I didn\'t just blame the coaching. Organizational dysfunction is the reason that there wasn\'t the right talent in those key positions.

I posit that superior talent where you can find it can help overcome some of those issues.

Do you consider Jon Fox a good coach?

Fox went 7-9 without good talent.

Do you consider Jon Gruden a good coach?

Jon Fox went 5-11 without good talent.

Do you consider Bill Parcells a good coach?

Parcells went what? 6-10?
Fox problems were due to injury. Gruden ran off his FO to the Falcons (and look what they did last year ) Dallas has never been the same since Jimmie Johnson left, because JJ evaluated the talent for the SB cowboys.

And in Fox\'s case his team went 6-2 their last 8 games with those injuries.
It seeems to me that coaching hasn\'t been the problem. The problem has been that we\'ve simply had a lack of talent.
You\'re kidding right? As you always say, our defense is terrible. We have pro bowl caliber talent on that defense. Read and react did more to damage our defense than any lack of talent.

BTW you\'re supporting my thesis: superior talent is needed to overcome the other issues.

But it could be done with better scheme, better coaching, and better talent evaluation too.

But the Saints made it clear this offseason that they were not going to significanly upgrade those. Loomis is still here. Haslett is still here. Venturi is still here. Mueller is still here. McCarthy is going, but Sheppard who worked under him was elevated. They probably didn\'t bother to look outside the organization.

Free agency was weak for the Saints. The hated Falcons, who had like no cap money, got the FA linebacker we needed (Hartwell) for a very reasonable price.
They simply did not fill in the key needs. It\'s organizational insufficiency all the way around.

So you and I agree: draft better talent to make up for it.

But don\'t get mediocre talent. They\'ll just get lost in the shuffle until they get to a better run organization, where they will flourish.

Draft superior talent at all costs.

Bill Parcells isn\'t going to do much until he gets some talent in Dallas.

Jon Gruden isn\'t going to do much until he gets more talent.

John Fox isn\'t going to do anything in Carolina, either. Not until he gets more talent.
Agree with the 1st two. Fox is getting his talent back. You had better believe that Carolina is one of the teams to watch out for in the whole conference.

Dallas and Tampa are suffering from the same types of organizational insufficiency that the Saints have, but have less talent.

I think the Saints BPA strategy hasn\'t been a bad one as superior talent can help offset organization insufficiency.
The Saints have a lot of talent. But the problem is that we have a lot of sub-standard talent at \"key\" positions.
Hence the need to draft superior talent, even if it means reaching for it.

But you have to do it right. Sully is an example of doing it wrong. All the pre draft reports had him going in the late first/second round. He would have been there at 18. Also reports had him as a mess. Note that the organization has done nothing to improve that.

So reach. Reach to a key position. But reach for the talent, smarts, and heart that can overcome the issues that will be faced.
That\'s my opinion anyway. Not saying coaching hasn\'t been part of the problem.
I know. All I\'m saying is that it\'s better to reach for that one or two key superior players then getting a lot of mediocre talent that doesn\'t have the organization here to make them fit.

SFIAH

The Saints have been to playoffs 4 of the last 5 years and a own a SB championship.

I can hardly believe this happened in my lifetime.
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Old 04-23-2005, 09:51 AM   #8
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

dj won\'t be there..........
Of course not. We\'d probably have to reach up to about 6 to get him.

I see now that Ditka wasn\'t as crazy as everyone thought he was. He understood that reaching for superior (if not nutty) talent could help. He of course gave up way too much (never give picks into next year unless they are 4th round and below) But offering Tennesee whatever adds up to that 6th is a play that we have to make if DJ is still available at 6.
davis and carlos rogers may.....and all ot\'s should be there.........just depends how many trades........
if carlos falls and davis is gone, i would say carlos.......if both, you may see the best ot taken..........smitty
If we pick Carlos and don\'t get an impact LB then I think the Saints will have screwed the pooch on this draft.

SFIAH

The Saints have been to playoffs 4 of the last 5 years and a own a SB championship.

I can hardly believe this happened in my lifetime.
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Old 04-23-2005, 10:15 AM   #9
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Strategy for 1st pick (was: DJ Johnson vs. Thomas Davis. Are

All I have to say is if it come down to Thomas Davis we better watch out for Denver picking up a 1st rd. ahead of us
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