New Orleans Saints Forums - blackandgold.com

New Orleans Saints Forums - blackandgold.com (https://blackandgold.com/community/)
-   Saints (https://blackandgold.com/saints/)
-   -   ...the AB challenge. (https://blackandgold.com/saints/8961-ab-challenge.html)

yasoon 05-02-2005 03:54 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
Alright, so Gumbo catches alot of poop around here for supporting AB. I was never in the bashers club until this year, when I felt like he was regressing.

While i rarely agree with gumbo, I want him to understand that I have no vendetta against AB, I am just tired of him. I would love to see him do well and I would root him on mightily if he were to step up in '05.

So...here's what I wanna do. If AB lives up to a set of standards in'05 (to be determined here), I will purchase an AB bobblehead and mail it to Gumbo myself. I may even include and autographed picture of me holding it wearing my Deuce jersey :)

I am a man of my word and I will hook Billy up if AB meets the standards.

There are a couple of automatics. If AB starts the NFC championship game, Gumbo gets a bobblehead. If he starts and wins the superbowl.....I'll throw in a replica jersey.

So....all the bashers out there. What numbers would AB have to put up for you to say "whoa, I'll lay off"?

I'm not asking for ridiculous numbers, we know that they say there will be more running this year. That means ratio would be more relevant than saying 30 TDs and 10 INTs.

So, how bout a 2.5 passing TDs to Picks ratio?
He would have won the challenge 2 years ago with a 24 to 8 mark which brings me to fumbles.

How is a 2 to 1 TDs to turnovers ratio? rushing TDs would count against this mark.

If AB threw 25 TDs, 10 picks and fumbled say 7 times, would that silence the critics?
I would call that a pretty good year, especially if Deuce is healthy all year.

What would it take for misunderstood and unappreciated AB to shut up the critics and send me to the mailbox with an AB bobblehead addressed to Gumbo?

(For the record, I would love to have to pay up on this one.)

[Edited on 5/3/2005 by Halo]

saintswhodi 05-02-2005 04:00 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

If AB threw 25 TDs, 10 picks and fumbled say 7 times, would that silence the critics?
I would call that a pretty good year, especially if Deuce is healthy all year.
25 TDs with 17 turnovers? Are our standards that low? Or is the 7 not the figure for lost fumbles? This is my standard, show up. Don\'t wait until the 2nd half, or until the 4th quarter, show up from the opening kick, and play like the game means something.

And no more ESPN blooper material. Cut the dumb mistakes.

And for crap\'s sake, complete better than 60% of your passes. Put the ball in a position where the receivers can make a play after they catch it.

I would be very happy with just these.


chRxis 05-02-2005 04:01 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
10-11 wins.... i could give a **** about his individual accomplishments

yasoon 05-02-2005 04:12 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

10-11 wins.... i could give a **** about his individual accomplishments
Good answer.


Quote:

25 TDs with 17 turnovers? Are our standards that low? Or is the 7 not the figure for lost fumbles?
This is what I\'m talking about. I agree....he would need to have 7 fumbles and like 4 lost or something. I\'m trying to be nice :)

Let\'s see how peyton would have done (the ridiculous gold standard):

Wow....I didn\'t realize how bad this was:

49 TD, 10 INT, 0 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles, 0 lost.

That\'s just ridiculous.

Let\'s look at Donovan:

31 TD, 8 INT, 3 rushing TDS, 8 fumbles, 0 lost.


That\'s nfl.com. Could it be that neither of these guys lost a fumble? I\'m not sure I buy that.

So, whodi, are you saying 3 to 1 TDs to picks? And maybe 2.5 to 1 total TDs to total turnovers? Is that fair to AB and not setting the bar too low?


saintswhodi 05-02-2005 04:18 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

So, whodi, are you saying 3 to 1 TDs to picks? And maybe 2.5 to 1 total TDs to total turnovers? Is that fair to AB and not setting the bar too low?
The turnovers are never my problem, it\'s when they happen and the net result. Leading the league in red zone turnovers? Oh my God no. Don\'t do that again. But yes, a 3 to one TD to INT and a 2.5 TD to TO ratio seems more than fair for a 5th year starter with a revamped line and a commitment fromt he team to run. I would be very amenable to that.

FireVenturi 05-02-2005 05:38 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
10 wins....period

LKelley67 05-02-2005 05:45 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
ditto in that personal accomplishments are not the standard. that is the guy\'s m.o.- decent stats but stupid mistakes at critical junctures. i would demand that he learn to hold on to the ball somehow. his fumble rate has never been acceptable. he didn\'t get as much flak last year cuz most of them were recovered. that is just chance how that happens. quit giving up the ball 13 times a year. wouldn\'t 6 be a reasonable goal? that number he does generally have control over, not like drops or hurries from pressure. bottomline for me is wins. 11 or 12 and a clearcut division win would be a nice change. eeking in on the last weekend with 9-10 wins, whether wildcard or division win won\'t excite me greatly unless a couple of playoff wins can follow. it is hard for me to imagine that happening and AB not having a solid year. either that mcpherson comes in for an injury and has some kinda big ben fantasy.

JKool 05-02-2005 06:07 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
If personal performances don\'t matter to you guys, how can you differentiate between players who are good or bad?

Charles Grant didn\'t get us 10 wins. Are you going to be down on him if we don\'t get 10 wins next year? If the answer is no, then you DO care about individual performance.

Guess who else didn\'t get us 10 wins? Joe Horn, Darrin Howard, LeCharles Bentley, Duece McAllister, Mike McKenzie, and the list goes on!

If you are down on AB for not getting us wins and you are not down on these other guys to exactly the same extent, then you are either inconsistent or you do care about individual performance (and, by simple entailment, its statistical description).

Saint_LB 05-02-2005 06:16 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

If personal performances don\'t matter to you guys, how can you differentiate between players who are good or bad?

Charles Grant didn\'t get us 10 wins. Are you going to be down on him if we don\'t get 10 wins next year? If the answer is no, then you DO care about individual performance.

Guess who else didn\'t get us 10 wins? Joe Horn, Darrin Howard, LeCharles Bentley, Duece McAllister, Mike McKenzie, and the list goes on!

If you are down on AB for not getting us wins and you are not down on these other guys to exactly the same extent, then you are either inconsistent or you do care about individual performance (and, by simple entailment, its statistical description).

Kool, I see the point you are trying to make, but, like it or not, the QB is the focal point of the football team. Quoting a QB\'s W/L record is very common. He could be compared to the pitcher in baseball, who certainly does accumulate a W/L record, even though there are 8 other guys on the field that have something to say about the outcome of the game.

LKelley67 05-02-2005 06:23 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
not individual performance kool, but i dont care about individual accomplishments, particularly stats. what makes brady recognized? not his stats particularly. marino the all time stats guy played in an era alongside montana. who do ya chose when the crunch is on? yes, statistics will bear out over a long haul but it amounts to little with no ring. marino was hall of fame. he would have traded the individual accolades for a couple more shots in the superbowl i bet though. a de can have 3 sacks and have a great season- garnering double teams all season and allowing the other rushers to add more total sacks. a de that only cares about sacks will be a liability against the run. the essence of football as perhaps the most emphatic \"team\" game is it\'s beauty. yeah, judge individual performance but on performance as a team member not individual accomplishments.

natedogg02 05-02-2005 07:58 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
You guys are nuts saying that AB has had int prob\'s. Last year was the worst i can remember him ever doing. (you guys really beleive that throwing 30 to 60 times a game and being down by 30 at halftime does\'nt have anything to do with his int\'s last year?)
There at the beginning of the year i beleive he had the longest streak without throwing a int. (going back into the year before)
And as far as i could tell last year, he had taken care of the fumbling problem.
If ya\'ll think AB is why were a subpar team, ya\'ll must be watching another team play or something.
AB would march us down the feild with pretty 30, 15, 20 yd passes then all of a sudden blam DM stopped in back feild, drop pass, false start, sack, then punt. Happened time after time, game after game.

Euphoria 05-02-2005 08:06 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
people seem to not realize that the O-L sucked this year and didn\'t give him the time nor protection which equals rushed throws... int.\'s He still had a better year than most qb\'s the saints have had.

The pitcher thing doesn\'t hold water either... if your pitcher has an ERA of lets say 1.32 and has 2-20 record 0 walks... that would leave you to believe that its the pitchers fault the team didn\'t make the playoffs??? Means other people you have around him sucked! If you get 1 run and the opposing team gets 2... does the pitcher suck... hell no.

[Edited on 3/5/2005 by Euphoria]

mutineer10 05-02-2005 09:03 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
The quarterback and center are the only players who touch the ball on virtually every offensive play. The center\'s job is simply to snap the ball to the QB (and then block like heck) ... he\'s not really expected to do anything special with the ball before or during the snap.

The QB, however, is the guy who is expected to make everything happen once the play starts. Even if it\'s a simple fullback plunge, the QB has to hand the ball off. Thus, the QB (whether it\'s fair or not) often carries the weight of overall wins and losses on his back. It\'s nothing new, and you\'d think an NFL quarterback would expect and deal with the responsibility placed upon him. There\'s a reason they\'re paid so much money.

Was AB the only reason we went 8-8 and didn\'t make the playoffs? Heck, no ... the 32nd ranked defense in the league had to have something to do with that. But, like it or not, wins and losses have always been associated with the starting QB, and they probably always will...

JKool 05-02-2005 09:40 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
Good replies gentlemen.

Let me make some points and some clarifications:

(1) Sure wins and losses are associated with QBs, and they may always be, but they don\'t measure anything about the QB. We are more knowledgeable about football than the average person, and we know better than to think W/L say anything about the QB. These are 53 person teams, and any play, any player, any unit, any single event, and the other team can lead to a W/L. No way that W/L are a way of evaluating a particular player (it is almost a silly in baseball with the pitcher in my view).

2. If you don\'t like stats, there is no way that W/L is an effective way of talking about a player - that is just another stat, and it is a WORSE measure of a particular player\'s performance than most stats.

3. We\'re talking about what kind of performance AB would have to have to take the heat off him. If you take any measure that applies to the whole team, then you\'ve said nothing to answer this question.

4. I agree that stats considered as accomplishments is weak, but they remain A way to measure performance that is a bit more fine grained than W/L.

5. Obviously, though, Marino was still a great player. His individual statistics attest to that. Sure, he\'d trade all that for a ring, but he is a MUCH better player than the 3rd string player on a team that has won it all. Thus, rings aren\'t the only measure of being a good/great football player. I see the point you are making, but surely you\'ll acknowledge this argument.

6. I agree that stats aren\'t the only way to evaluate a player, but they are A way. I also agree that stats over time are more telling that single game stats, and so on. Such are the problems of not thinking of stats as merely an impoverished description of what happened.

While I agree that the things people would like to see AB do, before they\'d consider \"getting off him\", aren\'t ONLY going to be described statistically, but that isn\'t a reason to merely say W/L are all that matter.

I have a feeling my tone was a bit curmudgeonly here, so please no one take it that way, I\'m just really tired today.

Mainly, I have an aversion to this \"all that matters is W/L\" idea. Why bother even watching the game then? I mean, you can find out who won or lost in the box score, right? I do share peoples\' aversion to stats as the only measure, but that doesn\'t mean it isn\'t a measure (just as W/L are). Of course, the whole picture is required to make a competent judgement.

LKelley67 05-02-2005 10:14 PM

...the AB challenge.
 
i think we have some common views, it is much just how different people express them or emphasize aspects.

i know more baseball stats than a person should. i love that aspect of that game. there are so many on so many levels to such detail you can find solid data to guage performance on. heck, they can determine salaries via arbitration through statistical analysis. the essence of the game is the singular performance of a pitcher versus a batter. perhaps my background of depth in beisbol causes me to be more averse to football stats. i much prefer empirical analysis. let\'s talk some stats, but let\'s get beyond that too.

quarterbacks have the highest affect of team success than any other player. likewise, their stats are affected more by the other players than perhaps any others. sacks are precise and recordable. hurries and pressures are not. does a sack or hurry come from poor line play or inefficient qb reads? there have been plenty of good to great qb\'s in history that have been on lousy teams. that is probably why oldtimers loved archie. his numbers weren\'t eyepopping but he was on some absolutely gawd awful teams. you could see his superior performance in the midst of a failing cast. it is from that same observation that i have tired of brooks performance that is best described by the words erratic and underachieving to me. THAT is what i need to see a change no matter what the td to int ratio is. THAT does go beyond W/L. if i saw that at 8-8 or 4-12 i would be on the gumbo train. my eyes have seen deteriorating or stagnating performance at best. in the past 4 years the o-line play has been up and down, receivers drop more and less, the running game has provided more and less support for a passing game, and the defense has made it both easier and harder for the offense... through all that i do not see the stability, progress, or maturity in AB i would expect of a 4 yr starter with the tools he posesses.

the only stat i hold him strongly and directly accountable for are the fumbles. and nope nate, he hasn\'t taken care of that problem-
2001- 13
2002- 11
2003- 14
2004- 13
51 and counting ;)

ps/ i forgot a gumbo stat... what was neil lomax alltime in passer rating #7?

[Edited on 3/5/2005 by LKelley67]

JKool 05-03-2005 02:21 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Kelley,

I\'m sure you and I more or less agree. Here is something I can\'t countenance though: \"quarterbacks have the highest affect of team success than any other player.\"

Do you mean every game, overall, more than any other single player? Your claim is vague.

Since the QB is only on the field about 40% of the time (40% it is the defense and 20% special teams), I don\'t see how he could have the biggest impact on any particular game. Perhaps that is true in general, but we all know that ST and Defense can have as much or more impact on the W/L of a game than the Offense.

I can see why people want to put it on the QB, but I am just not seeing the argument. This, \"he is the guy who touches the ball every play\" thing is just not enough of an argument. 50% of the time, he just has to give it to the guy behind him (the RB) - this is MUCH less difficult than holding for a kicker AND when it goes wrong, it is just as likely that it is the C or the RBs fault as it is the QBs. On passing plays, sure, it starts with the QB but it ends with the guy running the route and making the catch. Why place so much on the head of the QB - merely because he touches the ball the most!? I\'m not sold.

Saint_LB 05-03-2005 06:35 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Kool, you act as though this is something new...as if AB is the first QB that had to be held accountable for the W/L record. The QB is often called the field general, or captain, or leader of the team. All eyes are on him when your team has the ball. He is the person on the team that people want to talk about the most. This scenario doesn\'t exist just in NO, it is this way everywhere...it is the nature of the position. I don\'t understand why you are acting like we here in the B&G are holding AB to some sort of unfair standards. It would be this way no matter what team he played on in no matter what city he played in. It is just the way it is. For you to pretend that you don\'t understand kinda makes you look like you are just trying to be argumentive and especially defensive because you happen to like the person who is being criticized and you don\'t like it. It is OK to like AB and to defend him, but don\'t expect people to stop holding him accountable or to all the sudden change their minds about him. People\'s attitude towards AB is something that has built up for four years now, and the only thing that is going to change their minds about him is him starting to play solid, consistent football and at the same time keeping his mouth shut and grin-free.

I\'ll clue you in on something, Kool. AB is not the first Saints QB that has been under heavy scrutiny and recipient of heavy criticism. They all have. Starting from Cuozzo, to Kilmer, Archie, Hebert, Everett, to AB...and all those in between. If you are playing the position, you are in the hot seat...and I really have a hard time believing that in your heart you don\'t really know that this is true.

[Edited on 3/5/2005 by Saint_LB]

baronm 05-03-2005 07:02 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

So....all the bashers out there. What numbers would AB have to put up for you to say \"whoa, I\'ll lay off\"?

numbers are fine-i just want consistency..maybe a higher QB rating, and him to act like he atleast cares about football and isn\'t a \"show me the money\" player.

4saintspirit 05-03-2005 07:07 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
I think I agree with Baron -- I cannot necessarily hold AB accountable for wins and losses --- sometimes he is the reason they win sometimes the reason they lose and sometimes its a team win or loss. What I want is someone who plays hard every down not just when we are behind -- you know my favorite AB play -- Last year when we had to win -- and it was 4th and 12 or something and AB ran the ball -- was coming up short and made an incredible dive and got the first down. If he plays with passion like that the whole game I am confident his numbers will justify a bubblehead doll

LKelley67 05-03-2005 07:45 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
yes kool, i do think the qb has the highest percentage affect on a team more than any other player overall. and yes in single games other players may usurp this impact, but over the course of a season the qb impacts greater than any other individual. i have read some studies that have quantified this but cannot seem to remember the reference as i get my brain going this morning. what i think you will find satisfaction in though is what that percentage of impact is. using the 22 starters and 2 kickers as a base, even distribution of individual player impact would be about 2% per player. in the study i referred to i am thinking the final calculation for a qb was 7-9%. so, in the overall scheme of things he is just a cog. but he is the most prominent of those cogs. most people do put too much weight on the qb as to the teams overall success imo. but 7-9% certainly seems reasonable. you would not forward that any other position has more impact overall than a qb i presume. receivers, important to a qb\'s success are divided by a 3 to 5 factor since there are several. the success of the o-line is divided by 5 individuals, etc. the qb also has the sole responsibility of changing the plays by audibles and the most direct input in sideline discussions for play directionas well.
so, i am not a it is all on the qb for wins and losses guy. terrible teams have had good quarterbacks and journeyman qb\'s have been superbowl winners. the qb does bear more weight of success and failure than any other player though. brady again... he gets props for leading but most anyone would wonder how he might be preceived if he was the 49ers qb last year.
certainly worse can be had than AB under center. i simply do not see progress or growth in his performance. regression if anything. there is the issue of pay too. winning can now be equated to who gets the most out of their dollars. AB will be getting paid more than he produces in relation to team cap (if he hasn\'t been already).

here is a site you might enjoy for some different statistical analysis:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

i think you will find AB in the lower half of qb ratings last year, even those cretive and new ones like aikman did. here is one that had him at 19th. interesting note: led league with 33 3rd down completions that did not convert to a 1st.:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...eek17/rankings

[Edited on 3/5/2005 by LKelley67]

baronm 05-03-2005 08:01 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
QB=pitcher--yes, the team behind him can effect his W/L but he should be the focal point of the attack...and give his team the chance for victory....3 and outs a good team does not make...that\'s why I think QB ratings tell alot of the story for QB\'s.

yasoon 05-03-2005 08:30 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
A team COULD log 10-11 wins with a mediocre QB, it has certainly been done. But, I would say that if this team logs 10-11 wins, AB will have to have a considerable hand in it, even if Deuce has a really good year.

Someone mentioned earlier in this thread the timing of the screwups. It really is weird how AB (and others on this team) have such a knack for dropping a ball, fumbling, etc at the worst possible time. It\'s hard to quantify that, I believe whodi brought up red zone turnovers, which will kill a team.

If we were talking about O linemen, stats would be tough. But, with AB, the stats should give a pretty good indicator of the team\'s ultimate success. I think we could all agree that if AB has a year similar to last year, we will not do better than 8-8 unless the Ravens or Steelers come over to handle the other side of the ball for us.

I think we could also agree that AB\'s 24-8 year was incredibly efficient if it weren\'t for all the fumbles (most of which were painfully ill timed). I think that\'s why so many of us are so frustrated with him.

AB\'s skillset is like a whack-a-mole. Knock one problem down and another one pops up. I would love to see all the moles get whacked this year, but he\'s made a skeptic out of me, that\'s why I started this thread.

WhoDat 05-03-2005 08:35 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

So....all the bashers out there. What numbers would AB have to put up for you to say \"whoa, I\'ll lay off\"?
Aaron Brooks has claimed he\'s a great QB. He has called himself top 5, and demanded to be paid at a top 5 QB salary. He got it. For me to lay off, he has to be top 5 in at very least ONE relevant passing category (passes to a lineman, underhanded INTs, and throws off of a backfoot do not count).

Based on last year\'s numbers, top five in the following categories would be:

Yards: 4088 or more
Comp %: 66.37% or better
TDs: 29 or more
INTs: 10 or fewer
QB Rating: 98.1 or better


Here\'s how Aaron finished last year:
Yards: 9th (Delhomme was 7th)
Comp %: 24th (Delhomme was 20th)
TDs: 11th(tie) (Delhomme was 5th)
INTs: 23rd(tie) (Delhomme tied for 20th)
QB Rating: 19th (Delhomme was 12th)


All BS aside, numbers are just numbers. For me to layoff of AB, he is going to have to a) play consistent football, b) shut up about it until he does, and c) outplay, at least in one or two statistical categories, players we\'ve let go to keep him (e.g. Delhomme, Bulger, Blake...)

Tobias-Reiper 05-03-2005 08:57 AM

...the AB challenge.
 


..hmmm...


\"Aaron Brooks lead the Saints to their only playoff win\"...

... is this statement true or false?

yasoon 05-03-2005 09:07 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

\"Aaron Brooks lead the Saints to their only playoff win\"...
True. And you can\'t take that away from him or Haslett.

But....how long does that win resonate? It\'s kinda worn off for me.

I will give you this. If you watch AB back then vs last year, you would think they were reversed in NFL experience.

Maybe that\'s on Mike, because he stifled the progress. Or maybe AB\'s early success just screwed his head up.

baronm 05-03-2005 09:10 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
here\'s another thing to consider-the NFC was completely awful last year..and we still couldn\'t make it to the playoffs.

saintswhodi 05-03-2005 09:12 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
I think the point of Tobias\' question yasoon was, if we give credit for AB \"leading\" this team to it\'s only playoff win, then blame should equally be laid at his feet for the losses and subsequent mediocrity of the team. Is that correct tobias? Dude you are so deep sometimes even I get confused.

yasoon 05-03-2005 09:23 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Yeah, I wasn\'t sure if that was sarcastic or not. The playoff card will get pulled from time to time :)

Either way, my stance on that is the same. Good year. Good win. AB deserves credit for that, especially since our O was putting points on the board back then. I thought it was the start of something really nice but it is fading fast into NFL history.

The credit for that season can go around to the whole team. But if you\'re gonna blame AB when it\'s bad, you gotta acknowledge when it was good.

How bout this? I hearby swear to give AB lots of credit if he starts and wins a playoff game this year :salute:

saintswhodi 05-03-2005 09:27 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
You don\'t have to sell me, I would do the same. But tobias\' question lends to a good point, why is it when people defend AB the \'he led us to our only playoff victory\" speech comes in, but then when you try to assign some blame to him for losses it is the line, and the receivers, and the defense, and the coaching? Either you give the TEAM credit for the playoff win and thus the subsequent mediocrity, or you give AB the credit for leading us to that victory and the subsequent blame for leading us to medicority since. Can\'t be both ways.

baronm 05-03-2005 09:30 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

You don\'t have to sell me, I would do the same. But tobias\' question lends to a good point, why is it when people defend AB the \'he led us to our only playoff victory\" speech comes in, but then when you try to assign some blame to him for losses it is the line, and the receivers, and the defense, and the coaching? Either you give the TEAM credit for the playoff win and thus the subsequent mediocrity, or you give AB the credit for leading us to that victory and the subsequent blame for leading us to medicority since. Can\'t be both ways.
because the people, or persons depending are apologists and cheerleaders of the nth degree for AB--and are being lead by motives that have nothing to do with on the feild expereinces, stats or anything else.

Saint_LB 05-03-2005 09:32 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Don\'t forget, the playoff win has an asterisk beside it. Blake had the team on the doorstep of the playoffs that year, and Brooks was able to guide the ship home after Blake\'s injury. I am not downplaying his role that year, but I am still waiting for him to get us into the playoff without having a headstart.

BTW, Blake was playing great that year, and then the injury. What do you think would have happened if he didn\'t get injured that year? Would anyone even know who Aaron Brooks is?

saintswhodi 05-03-2005 09:35 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Not as far as being associated with that playoff victory. He may have been the starter the following year anyway, but the public outcry would have been for Blake and not AB, which is what being the closer of an already playoff bound team earned him at the time.

yasoon 05-03-2005 09:41 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
I agree. But isn\'t that just the nature of the beast with QBs in the NFL?

Look at manning. He still gets the \"can\'t win the big one\" tag and he lit the league up last year. (I will admit, he looked really uncomfortable in that snow.) But, the year before, he played a decent game in NE and his receivers got blatantly held on his last 2 plays. But, Law had the 3 picks and the Pats won. If Peyton leads them on that one drive to the superbowl, then he silences the critics. He still has that hanging over his head. I\'m not saying it\'s right or wrong.

I heard a browns fan talking the other day about their QB situation. The guy he was talking to said \"you\'ve got dilfer and he\'s got a superbowl ring\". Like that was supposed to mean anything. Half the backups in the league could have lead that defense to victory, but dilfer will always be a superbowl champion. I think most AB haters would admit that he\'s better than dilfer. But,that\'s when it goes back to the cliche \"he doesn\'t LOSE games for you.\" Meaning he hands it off really well and throws the ball away rather than throwing a pick.

It\'s a catch 22...no doubt. But, hey...pay me a few million and call me a chump. I\'ll take it like a man.

JKool 05-03-2005 09:51 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Whodi,

(1) I don\'t see why you are always trying to figure out my motivations. To be honest, I\'m pretty indifferent on AB. I understand that you feel a need to grasp why I\'m making a particular argument, but how about asking if it seems off to you - instead of telling me why I\'m doing something. I promise you, my argument against W/L analysis is well documented here at BnG AND has nothing to do with AB in particular.

(2) Do you really believe that W/L is an analysis of the QB!? I don\'t. It is a stat, just like all these other stats that people seem to have an aversion to, and it is a TEAM stat, not a player stat. Pretty well all that W/L tells you about a player is whether or not he is on a good team, a playoff team, or a SB team.

(3) A fine interpretation of Tobias\' point. I don\'t think it is correct to say that Brooks led the team to the playoff win. We all know that Brooks couldn\'t lead Sullivan to the buffet even if the future of the world depended on it. Furthermore, just as it is rare for a single player to lose a game, it is rare for a single player to win a game.

Kelley,

(1) Nicely done. You hit the nail on the head there. I agree that the QB has more responsibility for W/L, but that isn\'t enough for me to consider W/L to be a stat that belongs to the QB.

(2) 7-9%. Sounds about right to me. Very interesting too.

(3) I very much disagree that 16-19 W/L constitutes a significant sample. That is, if you think that W/L over time more or less \"washes out\" the effects of the other 52 players, chance, the other team, and so on, and makes the W/L a good measure of the QB, then I don\'t agree. While I like that argument, 16 data points just isn\'t enough for me to take the data to be \"clean\".

yasoon,

(1) It looks like you got your answer. What AB has to do for people to get off his case is NOT change his statistics - apparently (other than some fumbles) those are just fine. What he needs to do is change a bunch of behaviors (like smiling at the \"wrong\" times), play with gusto for the ENTIRE game, win the SB, and be more consistent.

Undirected,

(1) Well, it seems there hasn\'t been a good AB debate in awhile, and people are starting to feel like there should be one. Interesting.

saintswhodi 05-03-2005 10:05 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

Whodi,

(1) I don\'t see why you are always trying to figure out my motivations. To be honest, I\'m pretty indifferent on AB. I understand that you feel a need to grasp why I\'m making a particular argument, but how about asking if it seems off to you - instead of telling me why I\'m doing something. I promise you, my argument against W/L analysis is well documented here at BnG AND has nothing to do with AB in particular.
You are confusing me Kool. I never mentioned you once, I didn\'t speak up until Tobias\' point. Saints LB spoke to you. Did the avatar confuse you? You got the wrong guy man. Chill.

LKelley67 05-03-2005 10:05 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Quote:

3) I very much disagree that 16-19 W/L constitutes a significant sample. That is, if you think that W/L over time more or less \"washes out\" the effects of the other 52 players, chance, the other team, and so on, and makes the W/L a good measure of the QB, then I don\'t agree. While I like that argument, 16 data points just isn\'t enough for me to take the data to be \"clean\".
i agree with ya. where didja get that out of my posts though??

JKool 05-03-2005 10:20 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
Whodi,

Apologies. You guys and that freakin\' avatar! There should be a rule or something... :)

LB,

That point you then (and I tone them down for you, since they were intended to stir Whodi up a little re: an old dispute ;) ). Also, point 2 in that section. Apologies for not getting the two of you mixed up... *mutter* stinkin\' A-Mac avatar *mutter* :D

Whodi,

Don\'t worry man. That stuff I was dealing with before has passed. I was/am chill. :cool:

Kelley,
Quote:

yes in single games other players may usurp this impact, but over the course of a season the qb impacts greater than any other individual.
Perhaps, I took this out of context? Either way, the point was not intended as a criticism of your view (which, obviously, I took to be quite good); it was a general point about W/L analysis that I thought you might have something to say about.

Personal memo,

I now remember why I used to put different ideas in different posts - it helps to keep all the comments from being interpreted in the same light.

yasoon 05-03-2005 10:27 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
I\'ve said that I thought the Saints were 4-0 at the end inspite of AB. (Just an argument from me against W-L always being the on QB.)

Here you go:

Dallas 18/31 1 TD 2 picks Sacked 2 times
Brooks was not good in this game. The TD was a ridiculous catch by horn that sealed the deal late.

TB 14/21 2 TD 0 picks Sacked 7 times
I was at this game. The stats look good, but he was very bad in this game. He looked confused all game and most of the completions were 5 yards down field. I would say that at least 4 of the sacks were a direct result of him running backwards and holding the ball too long. Hey, he looked good for the last 4 minutes and we won, somehow.

Atlanta 12/24 1td 2 picks Sacked 4 times
Not a good game. AB kept the Falcons in this game. Shoulda been a blowout.

Carolina 14/24 1 td 0 picks Sacked 6 times
Mediocre game. The playfake bomb to horn was the best execution of playaction I\'ve ever seen by AB. It was called at the right time and run perfectly. Very nice pass. Other than that, just another stop and go performance.

saintswhodi 05-03-2005 10:35 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
yasoon, I have argued those four games too many times to count. If you look back to about January, you will see that. I likened it to a 5 day work week. If we stretched those 4 games into a 5 day work week, you would get 3 1/2 days of absolute crap, a 1/2 day of mediocrity, and one full day of pretty decent work. Or if you like, for 11 out of the 16 quarters of those 4 games AB was absolutely terrible, yet we won all 4. If that is not an argument against win/loss for a QB, I don\'t know what is. And Iw as at the Dallas game to see it all start. Ridiculous.

JKool 05-03-2005 11:18 AM

...the AB challenge.
 
yas and Whodi,

Fine points. I\'m in complete agreement. W/L is NOT a QB statistic.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:32 AM.


Copyright 1997 - 2020 - BlackandGold.com