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The Great Deuce Dilemma

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; So what happens this season if Deuce gets hurt early (again) and A. Smith comes in and is runing well. Do you go back to Deuce when he comes back? What would it take to make you stick with Smith? ...

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Old 05-03-2005, 03:36 PM   #1
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

So what happens this season if Deuce gets hurt early (again) and A. Smith comes in and is runing well. Do you go back to Deuce when he comes back? What would it take to make you stick with Smith? What if Smith rushed for 125 yards per game (average) over 6 games or so? Do you make a switch?

What happens if Deuce gets hurt and Smith starts most of the year and rushes for 1200 or 1400 yards? Do you then have to think twice about giving Deuce a big contract?

Deuce wanted 2,000 last year. I think he is capable of it this year, but what if he is so-so? What if he and Smith share time and Smith runs well? Deuce ends up with ~300 carries for 1,200 yards and Smith finishes with ~100 carries for 400 yards????


What do you guys think?
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:49 PM   #2
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

Smith 33 years old, Deuce 26 years old. What should we do......... :shrug:

Deuce career 4.4 yards per carry, Smith 3.8.......... :shrug:

Smith 6200 yards in 8 years, Deuce 4200 in 4(really 3)......... :shrug:

Smith 59 Tds in 8 years, Deuce 31 in 4(really 3).............. :shrug:


Think I might have to take my chances with Deuce.
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:50 PM   #3
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

First of all, it makes me sick to my stomach to even think about Deuce getting injured. But I guess if it did happen and Antowain came in, I would say he would have to put up some damn good numbers. Playing for one half of one season doesn\'t prove too much, and it would have to be a pretty amazing half a season for me to even consider putting Antowain Smith in over Deuce. Deuce is a Pro-Bowl type player when healthy, and that\'s all there is to it. You don\'t give up on that type of talent for Antowain Smith. Deuce is a stud, he got really injured for the first time in his career, but he really picked up steam heading into the last weeks of the season. Ex. 71 scamper in season finale against Carolina. Deuce is too good, even if he gets hurt again, to give his spot over to a mediocre talent like Antowain Smith.
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Old 05-03-2005, 04:15 PM   #4
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

Guys, guys, guys....

Before we go any further, I\'m NOT arguing that Smith is A) better or B) more talented than Deuce. Not at all. Deuce might be my current favorite Saint, so before I get labeled some crazy-a$$ Deuce-hater, let\'s just make sure that everyone knows that this is just HYPOTHETICAL.


Now, the assumption was that Smith COULD come in and run well.

There were two real questions

1) What do you do in-season? If Smith is on a roll, do you go back to Deuce just b/c he\'s Deuce? What if he\'s not 100%? What if he\'s out of shape?


2) What do you do with Deuce long-term if Smith can put up good numbers? Smith isn\'t the long-term solution by any means. But if Deuce gets injured again, or is out of shape, etc. and Smith can carry for 1,200 or 1,400 yards in a season, does it really make sense to then pay Deuce the top-5 money that he is going to ask for after the season? Why not trade Deuce and draft a young stud? Could Smith carry the load until some new hot-shot could pick it up? Ricky rushed for 1,000 in his first season. Deuce in his second. Could a new first rounder not do about the same? Wouldn\'t Smith offer enough coverage???


Again, Deuce is my favorite Saint. I want him to be a Hall of Fame RB for the Saints. Just throwing this out there.

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Old 05-03-2005, 04:16 PM   #5
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

Nice topic, not about AB!
So what happens this season if Deuce gets hurt early (again) and A. Smith comes in and is runing well. Do you go back to Deuce when he comes back?
I\'d still go back to Deuce, but it would allow us to be 100% positive Deuce is healed.
What would it take to make you stick with Smith? What if Smith rushed for 125 yards per game (average) over 6 games or so? Do you make a switch?
I\'m a huge fan of what-have-you-done-lately. I think you re-insert Deuce (again if 100000% healthy) and see what happens. If production drops you go back to Smith. And by production I mean looking at the big picture. If they\'re stacking 9 in the box when Deuce is in, but playing base when A.S. is in, I\'d have to look at overall offensive output. AB\'s numbers may skyrocket with Deuce in because of defenses stacking the box. But AB\'s numbers may suffer when Smith comes in.

What happens if Deuce gets hurt and Smith starts most of the year and rushes for 1200 or 1400 yards? Do you then have to think twice about giving Deuce a big contract?
I\'m already thinking twice. Alexander and Edge were basically ignored on the open market. I feel RB\'s values are deflating in the current NFL. That combined with McAllisters conditioning and injury history would make me extremely hesitant to sign him to a mega-deal. We can always franchise him if necessary.
Long-term contract? Definitely!
Clinton Portis type money? No freakin\' way! Not even close.
This may get nasty.
Deuce wanted 2,000 last year. I think he is capable of it this year, but what if he is so-so? What if he and Smith share time and Smith runs well? Deuce ends up with ~300 carries for 1,200 yards and Smith finishes with ~100 carries for 400 yards????
Well using the apples to apples evaluation I explained above it would appear then that maybe Deuce isn\'t as awesome as we all thought. If an aging street free-agent can put up similar numbers to Deuce, why tie up a huge portion of our cap. That wouldn\'t be very wise.

But all in all, I think Deuce is going to put up monster numbers this year, because he will come into TC healthier and in better shape than he\'s ever been in.

But I find it a bit distubing how often \"when healthy\" is used in discussions about Deuce McAllister.

[Edited on 3/5/2005 by Danno]

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Old 05-03-2005, 04:42 PM   #6
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

I know what you meant WhoDat, I was just laying the raw numbers out there. But to clarify, I guess I have to go with Danno. In the scenario wherwe deuce is hurt, until heis 100% healthy, you ride Antowain. This exact thing happened in Tenn last year. Chris Brown was blowing up, got hurt, Smith stepped in and played some good football. But they went with Brown when he was healthy, same here.

I love Deuce. I actually have less worries of injury with deuce than most it would seem. I recall last year up until the point he got hurt, Deuce was getting absolutely mauled by defenses before he could even get going. Priest Holmes got hurt a couple of times, KC stuck with him. Edge James got hurt, look at him now. Shaun Alexander has been hurt, I don\'t know many great backs who haven\'t been hurt. It\'s not like Deuce is the only one. Trav Henry, marshall Faulk, Portis, they have all been hurt. Goes with the position. If Deuce has a year similar to 2003, pay him. He deserves it.
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Old 05-03-2005, 04:52 PM   #7
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

Few comments in response -- If Deuce was healthy I would look at his production prior to getting hurt. It is a lot easier decision if Deuce was having a pro bowl year then got hurt than if his production was average. The most likely scenario is that I would start Deuce (with my earlier comment about production in play) and then put in Smith when Deuce got tired. I mean just getting healthy doesn\'t mean you have the stamina to play at a high level all game long.
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Old 05-03-2005, 06:29 PM   #8
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

I think this hypothetical situation is the exact reason we signed A. Smith in the first place. He filled in pretty well for Tenn. last season when C. Brown went down, and the hopes are he has enough gas in the tank to do that here.

But I think we may see Smith on the field more than many think. There were murmurs when he was signed that the Saints intended to use him as a short yardage specialist, in addition to giving Deuce the occasional breather. If the rumors regarding this run-oriented, ball control offense are true - and it\'s successful - Deuce will need a breather more often.

This could feasibly cut into Deuce\'s production in a negative way (especially if you\'re into the fantasy football thing). Could Smith\'s \"short yardage\" carries include the goal line? Could we possibly be looking at a Staley / Bettis fiasco? Will Deuce accept that quietly if it\'s the case?

As for WhoDat\'s implied scenario, I really don\'t see how you can sit Deuce if he\'s healthy. Spelling him more after an injury is probably a given, as Deuce showed last season he\'s determined to come back even when he\'s probably not ready. If Smith plays outstanding in Deuce\'s absence, excellent ... that\'s what we brought him in for. When Deuce is back, keep Smith warm on the bench and hope he can do it again if needed.
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Old 05-03-2005, 08:14 PM   #9
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The Great Deuce Dilemma



..one thing I don\'t get is why a player being a \"pro-bowler\" makes any difference.. The Pro Bowl selection is but a popularity/numbers contest...

...anyway, nothing against A. Smith, but he\'s not the RB Dulymus is... so unless the Duece is hurt, Duece is the man..

and, if injuries are a concern, believe me A. Smith would not be the answer... if there is a concern about Dulymus getting injured, then the Saints need to get someone other than A. Smith...

... what happened to Stecker, anyway? I thought he was decent when Deuce went down...
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Old 05-03-2005, 10:19 PM   #10
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The Great Deuce Dilemma

the issue of injury, replacement, when to return or not has been addressed sufficiently.

the long term contract is another thing, injury or no injury. in another thread we were discussing the relative impact of the qb on a team overal vs. other players. i referred to some study i read that quantified the qb as 7-9% of a team\'s performance. let\'s declare deuce a stud that produces 5-6% of the overall team\'s performance. at the current cap number that would equate to 4-5mil a year. he will be 27 this year. how long do you commit to that. portis got $50mil for 8 yrs including a $17mil bonus. i don\'t have a terrible problem with $4-5mil. even though the bonus sucks. the bigger issue is time. can you afford to contract him to age 34-36? if it is a unrealistic backloaded contract that you never expect to see fulfilled, you still have to deal with that bonus towards the cap accelerated, if it ends earlier than the term. this is the exact question both indy and seattle asked about top rushers and decided it was better to decline. you can see no other team thought it was worth it either when they could have had james or alexander, proven commodities for a 2nd, maybe even a 3rd rd pick. the cardinals weren\'t even bent over to get travis henry. they counted unproven j.j. arrington in the 2nd rd as a better proposition. cuz of having a few less miles deuce may get a 2nd rd or even a 1st rd pick over james \'n alexander... but not a whole lot more. with a $85mil payroll you can only sign 2-4 players to franchise type contracts. ya better be absolutely sure of who and when you decide to do that with. spreading the dollars around for better all around players with just a coupla marquee players seems to be more prudent imo. the dewd is a stud. i am not suggesting moving him out. i am saying that no player is a must-sign at any price, especially when that price reaches into the stratosphere limits of the sky.
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