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Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by SaintSproles Not sure if you know what you're talking about. With Brees he was at 80% (12 of 15 targets). After the injury, it's 82.5% (33 of 42 targets). The NFL record he set last year was ...

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Old 10-07-2019, 07:30 AM   #21
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by SaintSproles View Post
Not sure if you know what you're talking about.


With Brees he was at 80% (12 of 15 targets).

After the injury, it's 82.5% (33 of 42 targets).

The NFL record he set last year was 85%, so not far off that prolific pace.

And it's better than his career average of 77.5%.

Just to put that into perspective, no one has even approached 70% for their career as a WR.

Fitzgerald 63.9
A Brown 65.5
Julio Jones 63.7
Hopkins 59.1
OBJ 62.4

Tyreek Hill is the closest thing to him at 68.8%.


He's in the land of the running backs, and actually beating some of the all time greats at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Faulk 75.7
Gurley 73.4
Bush 72.1
Bell 79.0
Kamara 79.7

What we are witnessing with Thomas was thought unfathomable. But it's happening.
Audiotom is correct based on his reply to your original post. You only list Catches, Yards and TDs. Since Teddy is throwing less, and shorter than Brees Teddy is effectively hurting the numbers you based your post on. Audiotom did ask about completion percentage but the whole just of things has been seasonal, then you decided to shift geers into career..

Seasonally There are 4 players with over 20 targets that have a higher catch rate than Michael Thomas, 2 of those 4 have equal to or more TDs..

Michael Thomas is a demi-god but this seasons stats are not how you argue that. Other than completion% his seasonal stats will pale in comparison to previous seasons.

It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:32 AM   #22
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

I was sold on Mike ever since the "toe tap" in the title game vs Bama years back.

He's a special player.
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Old 10-07-2019, 09:27 AM   #23
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by TheOak View Post
Audiotom is correct based on his reply to your original post. You only list Catches, Yards and TDs. Since Teddy is throwing less, and shorter than Brees Teddy is effectively hurting the numbers you based your post on. Audiotom did ask about completion percentage but the whole just of things has been seasonal, then you decided to shift geers into career..

Seasonally There are 4 players with over 20 targets that have a higher catch rate than Michael Thomas, 2 of those 4 have equal to or more TDs..

Michael Thomas is a demi-god but this seasons stats are not how you argue that. Other than completion% his seasonal stats will pale in comparison to previous seasons.
You made absolutely no sense.

Here is what he said that I responded to:

"What is his catch percentage

Wouldn't know it today
But Teddy is hurting his numbers"

I then went on to clearly show that Thomas' catch rate is actually slightly higher than what Drew had with him this season (albeit small sample space for Drew). And also expanded on that and showed that the catch rate with Bridgewater is better than his career average by 5%.

And if you need I'll show that Bridgewater isn't hurting Thomas on Receptions, Yards or TDs either.

Thomas has shown that it doesn't matter who is back there at QB, he is getting his. He is that elite.

4 games (minus 1 quarter)
3 TDs
33 receptions
410 yards

Projected to 16 full games
141 receptions
1,749 yards
13 TDs

He's not slowing down with Bridgewater. And now that the kid gloves have come off, Thomas' numbers should spike from here.
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Old 10-07-2019, 09:38 AM   #24
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

My opinion on this has probably angered many of those on this forum. When it comes down to it, when someone says that a particular player is the best player in football at a particular position, I believe it to be far too generalized of a statement. By saying someone is the "best" one could mean several different things. If we are looking at statistics, Michael Thomas is certainly the best receiver in the league right now. Pure statistical evaluation using bulk stats like receiving yards or receptions is not a great way to evaluate whether one player is more talented than the another as there are too many variables that influence these things that are outside of the players control.

I've maintained for a while that Julio Jones is the best receiver in football. Since the moment in time that this became my opinion, Michael Thomas has certainly gained ground on him. Whether Michael Thomas has passed him really depends on how the question is framed. I think Michael Thomas is a more consistent receiver than JJ. There is something to be said about the sheer effort that Michael Thomas puts forth game after game, catch after catch. As such, when it comes to value I believe Michael Thomas and Julio Jones are fairly close. Stating that Michael Thomas is the best receiver in football is assuredly not an asinine assertion. I do have an issue with the statement that Michael Thomas is the best receiver in football from a particular vantage point. I believe that Julio Jones is possibly the most physically gifted player in the entire league(this includes all positions). Julio Jones at his best is better than Michael Thomas at his best. I think Julio Jones has the potential to shred even the most elite corners in a way that Michael Thomas does not. I know as a Saints fan, we root for our guys ... we believe our guys to be the best etc. And in a way, I'd even agree with you that Michael Thomas is the best WR in the league. In trying to remain neutral on the topic though, it just seems obvious to me that Julio Jones possesses a gear in which Michael Thomas does not.
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Old 10-07-2019, 09:43 AM   #25
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by hitta View Post
My opinion on this has probably angered many of those on this forum. When it comes down to it, when someone says that a particular player is the best player in football at a particular position, I believe it to be far too generalized of a statement. By saying someone is the "best" one could mean several different things. If we are looking at statistics, Michael Thomas is certainly the best receiver in the league right now. Pure statistical evaluation using bulk stats like receiving yards or receptions is not a great way to evaluate whether one player is more talented than the another as there are too many variables that influence these things that are outside of the players control.

I've maintained for a while that Julio Jones is the best receiver in football. Since the moment in time that this became my opinion, Michael Thomas has certainly gained ground on him. Whether Michael Thomas has passed him really depends on how the question is framed. I think Michael Thomas is a more consistent receiver than JJ. There is something to be said about the sheer effort that Michael Thomas puts forth game after game, catch after catch. As such, when it comes to value I believe Michael Thomas and Julio Jones are fairly close. Stating that Michael Thomas is the best receiver in football is assuredly not an asinine assertion. I do have an issue with the statement that Michael Thomas is the best receiver in football from a particularly vantage point. I believe that Julio Jones is possibly the most physically gifted player in the entire league(this includes all positions). Julio Jones at his best is better than Michael Thomas at his best. I think Julio Jones has the potential to shred even the most elite corners in a way that Michael Thomas does not. I know as a Saints fan, we root for our guys ... we believe our guys to be the best etc. And in a way, I'd even agree with you that Michael Thomas is the best WR in the league. In trying to remain neutral on the topic, it just seems obvious to me that Julio Jones possesses a gear in which Michael Thomas does not.
I think all that you said is fair.

Thomas doesn't have the splash plays like the other elite receivers, but what's the value in catching a 7 yard pass on first down? I dunno, but the chance you're getting a first down is quite high at that point. When you're catching nearly 78% of the passes thrown your way, how does that correspond to a Julio Jones only catching only 65% of his passes but making a few more splash plays?
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:46 AM   #26
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by SaintSproles View Post
You made absolutely no sense.
The grayness is not on my part.

When analyzing stats, it is a best practice to eliminate the outliers. Keeps your judgements from being skewed. When you do that, your argument crumbles. Different QBs, different offensive planning... Not a reliable direct comparison.

Take away yesterdays game and he has 1 TD and 79.3 yards/game with TB which are both less than his 2018 season. He is also on track to get 176 targets which is 27 more than any previous season. Naturally if targets go up total yards should go up and it is more of a result of volume and not increased performance.

Unless, of course, you are prepared to admit that its apples to oranges and the present sample size is too small and too dynamic for statistical reliability?

But hey, if you want to hang your hat on your snapshot then by all means... I am just trying to help.

It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

Last edited by TheOak; 10-07-2019 at 10:57 AM..
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:24 AM   #27
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by TheOak View Post
The grayness is not on my part.

When analyzing stats, it is a best practice to eliminate the outliers. Keeps your judgements from being skewed. When you do that, your argument crumbles. Different QBs, different offensive planning... Not a reliable direct comparison.

Take away yesterdays game and he has 1 TD and 79.3 yards/game with TB which are both less than his 2018 season. He is also on track to get 176 targets which is 27 more than any previous season. Naturally if targets go up total yards should go up and it is more of a result of volume and not increased performance.

Unless, of course, you are prepared to admit that its apples to oranges and the present sample size is too small and too dynamic for statistical reliability?

But hey, if you want to hang your hat on your snapshot then by all means... I am just trying to help.
I understand statistical analysis as I have a minor in math.

So eliminating an outlier when your sample space is that small is defeating and in that case you don't present your sample data in the first place.

And I think you would have to admit we finally unleashed Bridgewater and we are more likely to air it out vs be ultra conservative moving forward.

So I stand by my assertion based on the data at hand and the more likely future results that Bridgewater is indeed not hurting Thomas' stats or his averages.

How about I reference the first 3 games with Bridgewater as an outlier since we had an obvious conservative game plan? So can we expect what we got from yesterday's game as the average game going forward? Of course not.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:29 AM   #28
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Colston was always my favourite receiver but its just impossible to deny how dominant Thomas is.

I cant remember a receiver on our team as physical as Thomas is, he literally bullies DB's at the line. So physical and such a technician in his routes.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:32 AM   #29
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by dizzle88 View Post
Colston was always my favourite receiver but its just impossible to deny how dominant Thomas is.

I cant remember a receiver on our team as physical as Thomas is, he literally bullies DB's at the line. So physical and such a technician in his routes.
Precisely.

Hargreaves had no answer. Mike put his hands on him early and often, creating separation and big completions.

But like you stated, his precision route running ability is incredible.
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Old 10-08-2019, 07:19 AM   #30
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Re: Michael Thomas is officially the best receiver in football

Originally Posted by SaintSproles View Post
I understand statistical analysis as I have a minor in math.

So eliminating an outlier when your sample space is that small is defeating and in that case you don't present your sample data in the first place.

And I think you would have to admit we finally unleashed Bridgewater and we are more likely to air it out vs be ultra conservative moving forward.

So I stand by my assertion based on the data at hand and the more likely future results that Bridgewater is indeed not hurting Thomas' stats or his averages.

How about I reference the first 3 games with Bridgewater as an outlier since we had an obvious conservative game plan? So can we expect what we got from yesterday's game as the average game going forward? Of course not.
Thank you for the self validation. lol

'Bridgewater was unleashed'... That is your take on things? Your rationalization is that he was forced to check down for three games in regular season play? On top of that Sean Payton has been "ultra conservative"? The man doesn't know how to be conservative at any level.

I enjoy a good debate as much as the next person but not when irrational assumptions are spoken as though they are truth.

Nothing here shows a "Teddy unleashed", Teddy's patterns look very similar each week and similar to Drew's. Week 2s attempts are similar/higher than week 5s, and considering we punted 2 more times against the Bucc's than any previous week I see zero sign of an unleashing or previous conservatism.

While I do not buy in, or understand, your constant throwing of crap at the wall to see what sticks, I do admire your 100% commitment to that strategy.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/...ts/season/week
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It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau
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